Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

877 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

BitcoinWorld Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently dropped a significant insight that has the crypto community buzzing. He argues that current prediction markets are fundamentally flawed when it comes to effective hedging, primarily because most platforms don’t offer interest payouts. This isn’t just a minor oversight; it’s a crucial missing piece that impacts their utility and broader adoption, according to Buterin’s recent Farcaster post, as The Block reported. What’s Missing from Today’s Prediction Markets? Imagine you have money, and you want to use it to bet on future events, perhaps to offset potential losses elsewhere – this is hedging. However, when you put your funds into most leading prediction markets, that money simply sits there. Buterin points out a key issue: users forgo a secure 4% annual yield, which is readily available on dollar-based assets. This “opportunity cost” means that by participating in a prediction market, you’re essentially losing out on potential earnings you could get elsewhere. It’s like choosing to keep your money under a mattress instead of in a savings account that pays interest. Opportunity Cost: Users lose out on potential passive income. Reduced Incentive: Less attractive for long-term hedging strategies. Inefficient Capital: Funds are not actively earning, making the platform less appealing. Why are Interest Payouts Crucial for Effective Hedging in Prediction Markets? Hedging is all about managing risk. If you’re using a prediction market to hedge against a future event, you want your capital to be as efficient as possible. Without interest payouts, the act of hedging becomes less appealing. For instance, if you’re betting against a certain outcome to protect another investment, your capital is tied up without earning anything. This makes the overall strategy less profitable and less compelling compared to traditional financial instruments that often provide some form of yield. Buterin believes that resolving this issue would unlock a wave of broader hedging scenarios, leading to significantly greater trading volumes across these platforms. Are Current Prediction Markets Falling Short? The Polymarket Example Buterin’s observations aren’t just theoretical; they align with recent market trends. For example, Polymarket, one of the leading platforms, saw its July volume decline to $1.06 billion from $1.16 billion in June. While this isn’t solely attributable to the lack of interest payouts, it highlights a potential struggle in sustaining engagement and growth. If users perceive a better return on their capital elsewhere, they will naturally gravitate towards those options. The current design of many prediction markets inadvertently creates a barrier for serious hedgers and long-term participants. Unlocking Revolutionary Potential: What If Prediction Markets Evolved? Imagine a future where prediction markets integrate interest-earning mechanisms. This transformative change could revolutionize how people approach risk management and speculation. Users could participate in markets, hedge their positions, and still earn a yield on their staked capital. This dual benefit would dramatically increase the attractiveness of these platforms, drawing in a wider audience and fostering more sophisticated trading strategies. The potential for increased trading volumes and more robust market participation is immense, moving prediction markets closer to becoming a truly powerful financial tool. In essence, Vitalik Buterin’s critique offers a vital roadmap for the evolution of prediction markets. By addressing the fundamental economic incentive of interest payouts, these platforms can transcend their current limitations and unlock a future where they serve as truly effective and appealing tools for risk management and speculation. This isn’t just about adding a feature; it’s about fundamentally rethinking their design to align with user expectations and financial realities, ultimately driving their growth and utility in the decentralized finance ecosystem. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the main issue Vitalik Buterin raised about prediction markets? A1: Vitalik Buterin argued that most leading prediction markets are poorly designed for hedging because they fail to offer interest payouts on users’ staked capital, leading to an opportunity cost. Q2: Why is the lack of interest payouts a problem for hedging? A2: When users participate in prediction markets, they forgo a secure annual yield (e.g., 4% on dollar-based assets). This makes hedging less appealing as their capital is tied up without earning any passive income, making the strategy less efficient. Q3: How would interest payouts benefit prediction markets? A3: Integrating interest payouts would make prediction markets more attractive for hedging and speculation. It would reduce the opportunity cost for users, likely driving greater trading volumes, fostering broader hedging scenarios, and increasing overall platform engagement. Q4: Did Buterin’s remarks coincide with any market trends? A4: Yes, his remarks coincided with Polymarket’s July volume declining to $1.06 billion from $1.16 billion in June, suggesting that current market designs might be struggling to retain user capital and engagement. Q5: What is “opportunity cost” in this context? A5: Opportunity cost refers to the potential benefit that a person misses out on when choosing one alternative over another. In this case, it’s the 4% annual yield users could earn on dollar-based assets but forgo by putting their money into a prediction market without interest. Q6: What does “hedging” mean in the context of prediction markets? A6: Hedging means making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. In prediction markets, it would involve taking a position to offset potential losses from another investment or future event. Share this insightful analysis! If you found Vitalik Buterin’s perspective on prediction markets and the importance of interest payouts as compelling as we did, spread the word. Share this article with your network and spark a conversation about the future of decentralized finance and risk management! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Ethereum price action. This post Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team

Author: Coinstats
Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’

Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’

The post Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Coinbase Global has broadened access to its in-app decentralized-exchange trading, allowing customers to buy and sell any token issued on Base, the company’s Ethereum layer-2 network Coinbase Global has broadened access to its in-app decentralized-exchange trading, allowing customers to buy and sell any token issued on Base, the company’s Ethereum layer-2 network. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said the goal is to offer “everything you want to trade,” while product head Max Branzburg described the plan as turning Coinbase into an “Everything Exchange.” The feature, introduced about two weeks ago with roughly 1% of users, has already been activated by around 5% of the platform’s customer base. Branzburg added that the number of assets users have traded through the in-app DEX now surpasses the total tokens the company has listed on its centralized exchange in the past 13 years. Support already includes Zora creator coins, and executives signaled that prediction-market and real-world-asset tokens could follow as Base adoption grows. This is an AI-generated article powered by DeepNewz, curated by The Defiant. For more information, including article sources, visit DeepNewz. Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/coinbase-widens-app-dex-trading-bid-to-everything-exchange-011da35f

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes

Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes

The post Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Advertisement &nbsp &nbsp Disclaimer: The below article is sponsored, and the views in it do not represent those of ZyCrypto. Readers should conduct independent research before taking any actions related to the project mentioned in this piece. This article should not be regarded as investment advice. A major milestone in the development and operational scale of Truth Network, a decentralized infrastructure protocol that supports worldwide prediction markets, was reached today with the announcement that it has surpassed 19,000 node allocations. The development shows that the deployment of decentralized forecasting infrastructure is still gaining traction. Through independently maintained nodes, Truth Network, which is intended to act as a fundamental layer for market-based prediction systems, allows distributed confirmation of real-world outcomes. These nodes are essential to maintaining network consensus, tamper resistance, and data integrity. Through a combination of ecosystem activations, public sales, and institutional collaborations, node involvement has increased. Of particular note are allocations made possible by BlockchainFactory.io, a tool that aids in the early distribution and onboarding of infrastructure participants. The rise in node count coincides with the acceleration of general interest in prediction markets. The Economist recently said that the ideal situation for the industry would be “a world where every uncertain future can be priced, hedged, and insured against,” indicating a growing understanding of prediction markets as instruments for economic insight and information gathering. The validator-based architecture of Truth Network lays the foundation for upcoming applications in decentralized intelligence and decision-making by offering a distributed way to confirm results and manage value transfer on-chain. Advertisement &nbsp About Truth Network Truth Network is a decentralized infrastructure protocol designed to power open and transparent prediction markets. By combining distributed node validation, real-time data processing, and incentive aligned token mechanics, it enables communities to create, participate in, and govern trustless…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood (HOOD) Enters Betting Arena With NFL, College Football Prediction Markets

Robinhood (HOOD) Enters Betting Arena With NFL, College Football Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood (HOOD) Enters Betting Arena With NFL, College Football Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood (HOOD) has partnered with Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated and blockchain-based prediction market, to let users trade on the outcomes of NFL and college football games. The betting market will be available through Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub, available across the U.S. through Kalshi, the popular trading platform said in a blog post on Wednesday. “Customers can now trade on the outcomes of the most popular pro and college football games, including all regular season pro matchups, and all college Power 4 schools and independents,” according to the post. Robinhood is positioning the move as an alternative to traditional betting platforms. Rather than routing through sportsbooks, these trades are executed on Kalshi’s federally regulated exchange and treated like commodities, not wagers. “Unlike sports betting, where the firm sets a line, event contracts leverage the power and rigor of financial market structure and are offered in a marketplace where buyers and sellers interact to set the price,” the blog post said. With this move Robinhood could be coming after some of the traditional betting platforms, such as DraftKings (DKNG) and Fanduel parent Flutter Entertainment (FLUT). Regulated sports betting The launch marks Robinhood’s latest move into prediction markets after previously signaling interest in the space. In March, the company rolled out a broader “Prediction Markets Hub” available through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, following the popularity of crypto-native platforms like Polymarket, where users bet on outcomes ranging from elections to inflation rates using USDC. While Polymarket operated in a regulatory gray zone in the U.S., it recently said it is preparing an official return to the U.S. through the acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, following a federal investigation into Polymarket’s operations that was dropped. However, Robinhood sidestepped those regulatory concerns by partnering with Kalshi, which is an exchange already licensed…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Expands Sports Betting by Launching Football Prediction Markets

Robinhood Expands Sports Betting by Launching Football Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood Expands Sports Betting by Launching Football Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood has expanded its prediction markets to include pro and college football. The move highlights the company’s aggressive strategy to grow its “predictions hub” into major new categories like sports. The new offering will become available to customers in the coming days, starting with contracts for the season’s first two weeks. A Growing Prediction Markets Hub Robinhood announced today the launch of pro and college football prediction markets within the Robinhood app. The new feature allows customers to trade on the outcomes of major games, including all professional regular season matchups and games involving Power 4 and independent college football teams. “Football is far and away the most popular sport in America. Adding pro and college football to our prediction markets hub is a no-brainer for us as we aim to make Robinhood a one-stop shop for all your investing and trading needs,” said JB Mackenzie, VP & GM of Futures and International at Robinhood, in a press release.  Robinhood Derivatives, LLC will offer these new contracts through KalshiEX LLC, a federally regulated exchange. Robinhood will soon launch pro and college football Prediction Markets directly within the Robinhood app, per $HOOD release; PMs will include all NFL and NCAA Power 4 conference regular season games; launch comes days after Kalshi announces its own expanded football PM offerings — Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 19, 2025 The announcement expands on Robinhood’s existing prediction market offerings, which have already seen over 2 billion contracts traded. Unlike traditional sports betting, these are structured as financial markets where buyers and sellers set the prices, and users can manage their positions throughout a game. The new offerings will become fully available in the coming days. Robinhood will offer contracts for the first two weeks of the professional and college seasons at launch. The company plans to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Partners with Kalshi to Launch Football Prediction Markets

Robinhood Partners with Kalshi to Launch Football Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood Partners with Kalshi to Launch Football Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The financial services company looks to take on Polymarket in the sports betting arena ahead of the NFL and NCAA football seasons. Fintech giant Robinhood is expanding its prediction market offerings through a new partnership with Kalshi to offer NFL and NCAA football prediction markets on its app. Users will be able to speculate on the outcomes of the United States’ most popular sport, and the feature “will be available to all eligible customers in the coming days.” Robinhood’s plans to offer initial contracts for the first two weeks of the professional and collegiate seasons, and will continue to add weekly matches over time. The trading platform revealed its first prediction markets, known as “event contracts,” in March. With the launch, Robinhood is challenging not only Polymarket as a competing prediction market, but legacy sports betting platforms such as FanDuel and DraftKings. Unlike traditional betting platforms, prediction market contracts have the market set the prices and outcome odds, whereas legacy apps rely on professional bookmakers and prediction models. “Football is far and away the most popular sport in America,” said JB Mackenzie, VP & GM of Futures and International at Robinhood. “Adding pro and college football to our prediction markets hub is a no-brainer for us as we aim to make Robinhood a one-stop shop for all your investing and trading needs.” Kalshi, which is based in the United States, recently announced support for SOL deposits on its platform in addition to existing options such as BTC, USDC, and XRP. While the platform supports crypto deposits, crypto-natives tend to prefer Polymarket due to factors such as market liquidity, and Kalshi’s controversial tactics, which were allegedly used to slander Polymarket when the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s home. Prediction markets have been exploding over the last…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood launches NFL and college football prediction markets

Robinhood launches NFL and college football prediction markets

The post Robinhood launches NFL and college football prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The logo of Robinhood Markets is seen at a pop-up event on Wall Street after the company’s initial public offering in New York City on July 29, 2021. Andrew Kelly | Reuters Robinhood announced Tuesday that the online broker is launching new prediction markets for professional and college-level football. Customers will now be able to trade on the outcomes of “the most popular” NFL and college football games on the Robinhood app. Robinhood said those games would include regular season pro matchups and all college Power Four schools games. The prediction markets are currently rolling out, according to Robinhood, and will be available to customers “in the coming days,” with plans to launch the first two weeks of the regular football seasons and eventually add weekly matchups. “Adding pro and college football to our prediction markets hub is a no-brainer for us as we aim to make Robinhood a one-stop shop for all your investing and trading needs,” Robinhood Vice President of Futures and International JB Mackenzie said in a statement. Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders celebrates after rushing for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals during the NFL Preseason 2025 game between Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium on August 18, 2025 in Landover, Maryland. Greg Fiume | Getty Images The new move comes as Robinhood is aggressively expanding its prediction markets and wades deeper into the sports wagering arena. On its second-quarter earnings call last month, CFO Jason Warnick said the company is seeing its strongest engagement in sports wagers, with CEO Vlad Tenev adding that the company sees “a big opportunity” in sports betting. The broker added that the football prediction markets will differ from sports betting, allowing buyers and sellers to engage with each other to set the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews