Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

890 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Coinbase’s (COIN) Brian Armstrong Made Prediction Markets Look ‘Fun.’ Bill Ackman Made Them Look Real

Coinbase’s (COIN) Brian Armstrong Made Prediction Markets Look ‘Fun.’ Bill Ackman Made Them Look Real

The post Coinbase’s (COIN) Brian Armstrong Made Prediction Markets Look ‘Fun.’ Bill Ackman Made Them Look Real appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brian Armstrong’s last-minute crypto shout-out turned a $4,000 prediction market into a punchline. With a few words, the Coinbase CEO made every bet on “Bitcoin,” “Ethereum,” and “Web3” pay out at once. It was a thin market, where the largest winner took home only $111, according to Poymarket Analytics. But if Armstrong’s impromptu word salad showed how ridiculous prediction markets can get, New York City mayoral market, with $22 million in open interest, shows how serious they’ve become. Moving the odds there by just 10 percentage points would now cost roughly $1 million in concentrated buying power. That’s because Polymarket’s open interest reflects real money sitting in a liquidity pool, not just the sum of theoretical wagers waiting to settle. Every trade interacts with an automated pricing curve backed by collateral, meaning odds shift gradually rather than being set by direct matches between traders. The biggest positions show just how deep that pool runs: whales like “dubdubdub2” and “asfgh” each hold over $2 million backing Zohran Mamdani, according to Polymarket Analytics, while most of the large “No” traders are already sitting on heavy losses and have little room to add capital. Because of this, any new bet placed “out of the money”, for example, buying Andrew Cuomo at long odds or selling Mamdani near 95%, is quickly absorbed by the market maker’s curve, which adjusts prices based on supply and demand. To move the odds by 10 percentage points, a trader needs to push through millions of dollars in opposing orders, around $1 million in concentrated buying or selling, before the curve starts to meaningfully shift. The market’s size and structure make small attempts at manipulation almost instantly diluted by existing capital. Recent polling backs up the market’s view. A Fox News survey shows Mamdani leading Cuomo by 16 points,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Tokyo Gaming Giant Gumi Targets Prediction Markets — Legal Minefield Ahead?

Tokyo Gaming Giant Gumi Targets Prediction Markets — Legal Minefield Ahead?

The post Tokyo Gaming Giant Gumi Targets Prediction Markets — Legal Minefield Ahead? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Tokyo-listed gaming company Gumi announced its exploration of blockchain-based prediction market services through its subsidiary Gc Labs, joining a wave of regional players entering the sector. The announcement comes as Trump Media and Technology Group revealed plans to integrate prediction markets into its Truth Social platform. In addition, multiple blockchain-based forecasting platforms expand operations across Asia despite substantial regulatory challenges in the region. Sponsored Prediction Markets Gain Regional Momentum The prediction market sector has attracted significant institutional backing in recent months. In October, Polymarket secured a strategic investment of up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. On Tuesday, Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to integrate prediction markets into Truth Social through a partnership with CFTC-registered Crypto.com Derivatives North America, signaling mainstream technology adoption. This momentum is spreading across Asia. Also on Tuesday, prediction protocol Myriad launched on BNB Chain specifically to reach users across the region, introducing automated markets and localized experiences. According to company statements, the platform targets millions of potential users in Asia’s crypto communities. Meanwhile, US-based Kalshi raised $300 million on October 10 at a $5 billion valuation, announcing expansion to over 140 countries, including China and India, despite potential legal hurdles in those markets. Sponsored 🚨POLYMARKET’S CRYPTO ROOTS DRIVE BILLION DOLLAR VALUATION DESPITE KALSHI COMPETITION Polymarket, co-founded by Shayne Coplan, who participated in Ethereum ICOs in high school, continues to outpace Kalshi in valuation despite similar products. 🔹Built on Polygon Layer 2,… pic.twitter.com/iMYok9HhJ2 — Info Room (@InfoR00M) October 13, 2025 On Friday, Gumi stated its proposed platform would allow users to forecast events across politics, economics, entertainment, and social issues. The company plans joint verification experiments with media companies, data analytics firms, and research institutions, though it did not provide a specific launch timeline. Asia’s…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
US Senators Push to Finalize Crypto Market Bill as Shutdown Standoff Deepens: Report

US Senators Push to Finalize Crypto Market Bill as Shutdown Standoff Deepens: Report

Bipartisan talks on a long-awaited U.S. crypto market regulation package, the CLARITY Act, have resumed in the Senate, even as Washington remains paralyzed by a government shutdown now in its 31st day, one of the longest in U.S. history. Lawmakers from both parties are racing to finalize the market structure bill that could reshape oversight of digital assets before election politics stall progress. The negotiations, led by key Senate committees, have accelerated in recent weeks despite the broader gridlock. Can the CLARITY Act pass by Thanksgiving? According to the report, Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) said he and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) are working “daily” to complete their section of the legislation, which would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets treated as commodities. Boozman said he expects a committee vote “before Thanksgiving,” adding, “We’re going to get it done this year.” Booker echoed that sentiment, saying the goal was to “get the policy right” rather than rush the timeline. Their work represents one part of a broader bipartisan effort spanning multiple committees, including Banking and Finance, to define how digital assets fit within U.S. regulations and the tax code. Talks within the Senate Banking Committee have also gained momentum. Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) said discussions had resumed after weeks of delay. Notably, Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said he was “encouraged” by the progress and looks forward to advancing “meaningful legislation.” Still, some members caution that the bill is not yet ready. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said the legislation requires a public hearing and that many lawmakers still need to understand the issue. The push for progress comes amid warnings that time is running out. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Congress must act by early 2026 or risk losing momentum as election politics take over. “I’m not optimistic about us moving much further on anything around digital assets, stablecoins, or crypto in this Congress,” he said on Monday. Longest Shutdown in History Looms — What’s Next for America? The shutdown, now stretching into its fifth week, has added further strain. The Senate adjourned Thursday without progress on a continuing resolution, guaranteeing the shutdown will last at least 34 days, tying the longest lapse in U.S. history. As of October 20, 25% of Polymarket bettors predict that the shutdown will last until at least November 16 and may drag on for almost another month to become the longest in American history. Funding for food assistance under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is set to expire Saturday, threatening benefits for 42 million Americans. The closure, triggered by disputes over healthcare subsidies, has left 1.4 million federal workers without pay, including air traffic controllers and employees at key agencies. Despite the stalemate, Senate Democrats and Republicans are expected to meet separately with industry executives next week to keep crypto talks alive. U.S. Lawmakers Renew Crypto Talks, but Prediction Markets Cut Odds of 2025 Passage to 25% On October 20, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) hosted a closed-door roundtable with major industry figures, including Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Chainlink’s Sergey Nazarov. Armstrong told CNBC that roughly 90% of the bill’s issues had already been resolved and that Thanksgiving had been floated as a possible target for completion. The House-passed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, approved in July by a 294–137 vote, remains stalled due to the shutdown. The measure defines which digital assets fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and which are overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Together with the GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump earlier this year, it forms the foundation of the emerging U.S. crypto regulatory framework. White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks said the administration remains optimistic that bipartisan support could still deliver progress by the end of 2025.Source: Polymarket But prediction markets paint a different picture, with data from Polymarket showing just a 25% chance the CLARITY Act becomes law this year, down from 87% in mid-July

Author: CryptoNews
Coinbase CEO turns earnings call into unexpected jackpot for prediction market traders

Coinbase CEO turns earnings call into unexpected jackpot for prediction market traders

The post Coinbase CEO turns earnings call into unexpected jackpot for prediction market traders appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Brian Armstrong just “airdropped” alpha straight into the bags of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi. He literally hit nearly every keyword that the prediction market traders had wagered on. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong surprised listeners during the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Thursday after mentioning nearly every keyword that prediction market traders had wagered he would say. “I was a little distracted because I was tracking the predictions market about what Coinbase will say in their next earnings call,” said Armstrong as he wrapped up Coinbase’s earnings call, “and I just want to, you know, add here, the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and web3, to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.” The moment inadvertently handed a win to Kalshi and Polymarket bettors. lol this was fun – happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in the chat https://t.co/tQiV3B9jUj — Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) October 31, 2025 Coinbase reported steady growth in Q3 with a 37% increase in transaction revenues reaching $1 billion, driven by a rebound in trading volumes, which touched $295 billion. Total revenue for the quarter escalated to $1.9 billion with a net income of $433 million. Armstrong confirmed that Coinbase had added 2,772 BTC valued at over $300 million during the quarter. With 14,548 BTC currently on its balance sheet, the company ranks in the top ten public companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/coinbase-brian-armstrong-earning-calls-win-prediction-market-traders/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Coinbase Boosts Bitcoin Holdings as Profits Surge in Q3

Coinbase Boosts Bitcoin Holdings as Profits Surge in Q3

The post Coinbase Boosts Bitcoin Holdings as Profits Surge in Q3 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The exchange boosted its Bitcoin holdings by 2,772 BTC, bringing its total reserves to 14,548 BTC worth about $1.57 billion. This is part of Coinbase’s plan to become an “Everything Exchange.” The company reported $1.9 billion in revenue, up 55% year-on-year, and $432.6 million in net income, fueled by strong trading and subscription revenues. Institutional clients accounted for 80% of Coinbase’s $295 billion trading volume. Meanwhile, CEO Brian Armstrong turned heads after intentionally dropping crypto buzzwords like “Bitcoin” and “Web3” at the end of the earnings call, which instantly resolved prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Though playful, the stunt caused some debate over fairness in prediction markets and insider influence. Coinbase Grows Bitcoin Stash Coinbase greatly strengthened its position in the Bitcoin ecosystem after adding 2,772 BTC to its holdings in the third quarter as part of its attempt to evolve into what it calls an “Everything Exchange.” The company’s total Bitcoin reserves now stand at 14,548 BTC, which is valued at approximately $1.57 billion.  The latest quarterly report also showed robust financial performance, with net income surging more than fivefold to $432.6 million year-on-year, while total revenue climbed 55% to $1.9 billion. The gains were largely driven by a resurgence in trading activity and growth in subscription-based revenue streams, which include stablecoin-related income and blockchain rewards. Transaction revenue reached $1.05 billion, while subscription and services revenue increased 34.3% to $746.7 million. Coinbase credited its growth to progress made toward realizing its “Everything Exchange” vision. This is an ambitious plan to offer a comprehensive suite of crypto and tokenized products under one platform. Coinbase Q3 financial results (Source: Coinbase) The company said it made headway in Q3 by expanding its lineup of tradable spot assets, enhancing its derivatives offerings, and building the foundation for new verticals, like tokenized stocks,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
MetaMask Rewards Ignite Airdrop Frenzy as S&P Global Unveils Hybrid Crypto Index

MetaMask Rewards Ignite Airdrop Frenzy as S&P Global Unveils Hybrid Crypto Index

Key Takeaways: MetaMask has introduced Rewards Season 1, whereby over 30 million LINEA tokens are invested in a points-based scheme that rewards swaps, trading, and referrals. The wallet’s recent domain The post MetaMask Rewards Ignite Airdrop Frenzy as S&P Global Unveils Hybrid Crypto Index appeared first on CryptoNinjas.

Author: Crypto Ninjas
Trump Media to Join With Crypto.com in Prediction Market Push

Trump Media to Join With Crypto.com in Prediction Market Push

The post Trump Media to Join With Crypto.com in Prediction Market Push appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Trump Media and Technology Group, in which President Donald Trump is a majority stakeholder, is working with Crypto.com to debut a prediction market. Truth Predict, users will allow users to put money on sports games, elections, and other events. A Nevada judge this month denied Crypto.com’s injunction request to block state gaming regulations in a regulatory setback for the Singapore-based firm. U.S. President Donald Trump’s media company will unveil a prediction market with Crypto.com, according to an announcement Tuesday, adding to a growing market fueled by consumers’ desire to bet on events.  Trump Media and Technology Group said that the platform, Truth Predict, will be available to users of Truth Social. Truth Social is the microblogging website President Trump typically uses to make announcements.  The announcement comes after earlier this month a Nevada judge denied Crypto.com’s injunction request to block state gaming regulations—a regulatory setback that the digital asset trading platform looks willing to fight by joining forces with the President Trump-backed behemoth.   “For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets—with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” the announcement read.  “Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network while harnessing our social media platform to provide totally unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions,” it added.   “With more than $3 billion in financial assets as of the end of the second quarter, and having posted our first quarter of positive operating cash flow after going public just last year, Trump Media is well-positioned to leverage our strong balance sheet and existing social media capabilities to create a new standard for access to prediction market platforms.” Like event-contract platform…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Best Altcoins to Invest In This Week: Investors Eye Tapzi as CRO Jumps 10% on Trump Media Partnership

Best Altcoins to Invest In This Week: Investors Eye Tapzi as CRO Jumps 10% on Trump Media Partnership

Cronos (CRO) moved sharply higher on Monday after Trump Media said it would partner with Crypto.com to add prediction markets […] The post Best Altcoins to Invest In This Week: Investors Eye Tapzi as CRO Jumps 10% on Trump Media Partnership appeared first on Coindoo.

Author: Coindoo
Trump Family Explore Prediction Markets Via Crypto.com Partnership

Trump Family Explore Prediction Markets Via Crypto.com Partnership

The post Trump Family Explore Prediction Markets Via Crypto.com Partnership appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Trump’s family communication company, Trump Media and Technology Group, announced on October 28 that it would make prediction markets available on Truth Social through an exclusive arrangement with Crypto.com Derivatives North America. The integration positioned Truth Social as the first social media platform to offer embedded prediction market capabilities via a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse. The announcement comes amid the rising popularity of prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket combined surpassed $8 billion in volume in the third quarter, up 61% from the second quarter. Trump Family Targets Political and Financial Events With New Platform Truth Social users gained access to trade prediction contracts on political elections, interest and inflation rate changes, and gold and crude oil commodity prices, as well as events across major sports leagues, through the product Truth Predict. Prices are updated in real-time, allowing users to react instantly to developments in major current events. Devin Nunes, Trump Media chairman and chief executive, stated the company held more than $3 billion in financial assets as of the second quarter. He posted its first quarter of positive operating cash flow after going public in 2024. The event contracts were offered via Crypto.com Derivatives in North America, providing federally compliant access to event contracts covering politics, economics, financials, and sports. Kris Marszalek, Crypto.com co-founder and chief executive, described prediction markets as “poised to be a multi-deca-billion dollar industry”. He noted the integration aligned with what users sought in social media communities. The platform planned beta testing followed by a full US launch, with global expansion pending regulatory requirements. Truth Social and Truth+ users who hold Truth gems earned through platform interactions can convert them into Cronos (CRO) and apply them to Truth Predict contract purchases. The initiative followed Trump Media’s recent strategic partnership with Crypto.com to introduce a CRO rewards…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Fortify Labs Opens 2026 Applications, Offers Up to $1.3M for Tezos and Etherlink Startups

Fortify Labs Opens 2026 Applications, Offers Up to $1.3M for Tezos and Etherlink Startups

Fortify Labs opens applications for its 2026 cohort, a seven-month program offering bespoke mentorship and up to $1.3M for Tezos and Etherlink Web3 startups.

Author: Blockchainreporter