Berkshire Hathaway’s $373.3B Cash Reserve Signals Caution as Buffett Indicator Hits Record 220%

TLDR:

• Berkshire Hathaway’s $373.3B cash reserve is the largest ever held by any corporation in history.
• The Buffett Indicator hit 220%, surpassing the dot-com peak and every prior reading on record.
• TTF natural gas surged 75% and Brent crude reached $107, raising costs for S&P 500 companies.
• Buffett publicly linked Iran’s nuclear programme to market risk for the first time on March 31.

The Buffett Indicator has climbed above 220 percent, exceeding every prior reading in its recorded history. Warren Buffett appeared on CNBC on March 31, holding the largest corporate cash reserve ever accumulated.

Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373.3 billion in Treasury bills and cash equivalents. The firm has also completed thirteen consecutive quarters of net stock selling, totalling $187 billion in net sales.

Analysts are watching both figures closely against a backdrop of rising energy costs and geopolitical tension.

Berkshire’s Selling Streak Draws Attention Across Markets

The thirteen-quarter selling streak marks the longest in Berkshire Hathaway’s history. That figure alone has prompted renewed scrutiny of Buffett’s market positioning.

He has not publicly forecast a crash, staying consistent with his long-held view that short-term forecasts are unreliable.

Buffett made that position clear decades ago. He has repeated it across multiple market cycles, including the 2008 financial crisis. During that downturn, he published his “Buy American. I Am.” statement and deployed capital while others were exiting.

In 2002, he warned that derivatives were “financial weapons of mass destruction.” That warning came six years before the instruments contributed to a global financial collapse. His track record of positioning ahead of stress events is well-documented.

On March 31, Buffett flagged Iran’s nuclear programme as a market risk. According to the tweet by @shanaka86, this was the first time he publicly connected a Middle Eastern conflict to his valuation framework in an interview.

Energy Costs and AI Valuations Add Pressure to the Indicator

The Hormuz crisis has driven TTF natural gas prices up 75 percent. Brent crude has reached $107 per barrel. Natural gas generates 40 percent of US electricity and heats 47 percent of American homes, making it central to corporate cost structures.

The Buffett Indicator’s 220 percent reading was calculated using pre-crisis earnings. As energy costs rise, post-crisis earnings are expected to fall. A shrinking earnings denominator pushes the ratio higher, not lower.

The AI sector sits at the centre of this tension. NVIDIA represents roughly seven percent of the S&P 500 index. OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation. AI infrastructure runs on natural gas, which now costs 75 percent more than it did five weeks ago.

Oracle’s credit default swaps recently exceeded 198 basis points, surpassing the 2008 financial crisis peak. The IRGC has designated 18 American companies as legitimate military targets.

Against that backdrop, Berkshire’s $373.3 billion cash position continues to grow, while Buffett remains on the sidelines.

The post Berkshire Hathaway’s $373.3B Cash Reserve Signals Caution as Buffett Indicator Hits Record 220% appeared first on Blockonomi.