TON Weekly Analysis Jan 20

TON ended the week with a 1.81% decline, approaching a critical support test at $1.57; as long as the downtrend structure remains intact, the distribution phase dominates, but low-risk long opportunities can be sought in altcoins amid BTC’s sideways movement.

TON in the Weekly Market Summary

TON consolidated in a narrow $1.55-$1.61 band last week, retreating to $1.57 with a 1.81% loss. Volume profile remained limited at $61.36M, signaling position traders to wait for trend confirmation. Primary downtrend filters are active: RSI at 38.28 maintaining bearish momentum, MACD negative histogram, and price below EMA20 ($1.70) creating short-term bearish confluence. Market structure is net resistance-heavy up to $1.83; however, 12 strong levels were identified in multi-timeframe analysis (1D: 2S/1R, 3D: 1S/3R, 1W: 3S/2R). The outlook, supported by this week’s TON Spot Analysis data, makes monitoring the $1.5290 support mandatory for accumulation signals. Macro news flow is calm, but altcoin rotation is limited due to BTC dominance effect.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Long-term trend structure (1W/1M) is positioned in a clear downtrend following higher high/lower low breakdown. Price continues below EMA50 ($1.92) and EMA200 ($2.15), confirming bearish filters. Market structure shows distribution characteristics in recent months: high-volume wicks and failure swing lows reflect smart money selling pressure. As long as the trend remains healthy (i.e., holding above $1.4590), upside reversal is premature; however, RSI divergences (upturn from 38.28) may signal weakening. From a portfolio manager perspective, the $2.17 monthly target remains speculative, with the primary scenario being downward extension.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis points to distribution in the current structure: weekly range contraction ($1.55-$1.61) with low volume profile, but upper wicks (around $1.61) indicate seller dominance. Accumulation phase features are not yet clear; volume clusters around $1.5290 (80/100 score) could enable a phase shift. Per Wyckoff methodology, this level could provide bullish reenactment via a spring test. Distribution patterns (fakeout above EMA20 followed by rejection) have repeated in recent weeks, advising position traders to maintain short bias. TON Futures Analysis funding rates trend negative, increasing leverage unwind risk.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe (1D), price at $1.57 shows 2 support/1 resistance confluence: $1.5290 main support (EMA21 confluence), $1.6266 resistance (prior high). MACD histogram contraction and RSI at 38 approaching oversold suggest short-term bounce potential. Market structure maintains intact downtrend with lower high sequence; however, a $1.55 breakdown increases cascade risk. Confluence score is high: 1D levels align with 3D supports.

Weekly Chart View

On the weekly chart (1W), bearish bias prevails with 3 supports/2 resistances: $1.4590 main support (VWAP confluence, score 71/100), $1.83 resistance (EMA50). Trend remains intact as long as above $1.4590; breakdown here triggers bear extension. Multi-TF confluence does not indicate accumulation base on 1W, with distribution wicks dominant. From a monthly perspective, cycle low approach is present but awaits BTC macro confirmation.

Critical Decision Points

Key inflection points: Supports – $1.5290 (critical, 80/100; mandatory for hold), $1.4590 (secondary, breakdown trigger). Resistances – $1.6266 (69/100; first test for breakout), $1.83 (trend filter). If trading range persists between these levels, a volatility contraction pattern (VCP) may form. For position traders, $1.5290 hold confluence (1D/1W support cluster) defines long entry, while breakdown sets up short. Follow general market confluence for TON and other analyses.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Upside

Bullish scenario: Hold above $1.5290 + RSI >45 divergence. Long entry from $1.55-$1.57 dips, first target $1.6266 (R/R 1:2), extension $2.1714 (score 25/100). Stop-loss below $1.52; position size limited to 2-3% risk. BTC above $92k confirms altcoin rotation support. Horizon: 1-4 weeks, trailing stop with EMA20.

In Case of Downside

Bearish scenario: $1.5290 breakdown (with volume increase). Short entry on $1.52 rejection, target $1.4590 intermediate, final $1.0242 (score 22/100; R/R 1:3). Stop above $1.57. BTC $90.9k breakdown increases confluence. Risk management: Max 1.5% exposure, negative funding advantage in futures.

Bitcoin Correlation

TON is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC sideways at $91,263 but Supertrend bearish, caution mode for altcoins. BTC key supports test at $90,920/$88,246 could pull TON to $1.45; $92,493 resistance breakout brings TON relief to $1.70. BTC dominance rise (bearish Supertrend) accelerates TON distribution. Watch: BTC below $90k → heavy TON short bias; above $94k → selective long.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $1.5290 support test (watch for volume spike on hold), BTC $90.9k dynamics, and RSI divergence. Downtrend intact; $1.6266 close mandatory for bullish shift. Position traders should await directional bias over range trade – early longs risky. Volume increase and BTC breakouts as catalysts; verify levels with TON Spot Analysis. Strategic patience prevails with R/R-focused approach.