Bitcoin Holds Critical Range as Analysts Eye Next Major Breakout

Bitcoin’s recent weakness relative to gold and silver has sparked debate across macro and crypto circles, but analysts argue the relationship is being misunderstood.

Rather than needing precious metals to cool off before moving higher, Bitcoin appears to be working through its own structural reset.

Macro strategist Lyn Alden has repeatedly pushed back against the idea that Bitcoin competes directly with gold or silver. In her view, both assets respond to long-term monetary stress, but they move on different timelines. Gold tends to react first during periods of uncertainty, while Bitcoin often lags before catching up once liquidity conditions stabilize.

Why Gold Rallied First While Bitcoin Paused

That pattern helps explain why gold surged to fresh highs in 2025 while Bitcoin entered a prolonged consolidation phase instead of collapsing. The divergence, according to Alden, reflects timing rather than weakness.

From a market-structure perspective, Bitcoin’s behavior supports that view. After peaking above $125,000 in October, BTC entered a corrective phase that erased nearly 30% of its value. Unlike previous cycles, however, the decline did not turn into a disorderly selloff.

Bitcoin’s Price Structure Shows Compression, Not Breakdown

Price has repeatedly stabilized above the mid-$80,000 region, pointing to distribution and consolidation rather than panic. Volatility has compressed, and buyers continue to defend key levels despite broader macro uncertainty.

Technical indicators reinforce this interpretation. Bitcoin remains locked in a defined range between roughly $86,500 and $90,000. The RSI hovering in the low-to-mid 40s signals neutral momentum, while a flat, slightly negative MACD suggests downside pressure is fading rather than accelerating.

The Key Levels That Now Define Bitcoin’s Direction

Market analyst Michael van de Poppe highlighted the importance of this range, noting that $86,500 remains the critical downside pivot. A clean break below that level could open room for a deeper test toward the low $80,000s, potentially even the $80,000 zone.

On the flip side, reclaiming $90,000 would mark a meaningful shift in short-term structure. Such a move would push Bitcoin back above its 20-day moving average and likely attract momentum buyers, with the $100,000–$105,000 region emerging as the next major upside target.

Why Bitcoin May Not Need Gold to Cool Off

This technical stalemate is unfolding as gold and silver continue to absorb capital amid expectations of looser monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and a softer dollar outlook. For many analysts, that divergence is not bearish for Bitcoin, but preparatory.

Historically, periods where Bitcoin ranges while traditional hedges rally have often preceded renewed upside once capital rotates back toward digital assets.

A Base Is Forming, Even Without a Catalyst

Rather than waiting for precious metals to roll over, Bitcoin appears to be building its own foundation. Shrinking volatility, consistent dip buying, and clearly respected support and resistance levels suggest accumulation is quietly taking place.

If those conditions hold, analysts argue that Bitcoin does not need a signal from gold or silver to resume its longer-term trend.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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