Dogecoin (DOGE) Price: What July Seasonality Data Says About DOGE’s Historical Returns

TLDR

• DOGE rebounded ~3% to approach $0.075 after bouncing off the $0.0700 support level
• DOGE ETFs recorded $871,110 in outflows Thursday — their third-ever outflow since launch
• Open Interest rose over 7% in 24 hours to $1.04 billion, signaling renewed retail interest
• RSI sits at 32, recovering from oversold territory; MACD crossed above its signal line
• July is historically weak for DOGE, with a median loss of 4.6% over the past 12 years

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.075 on Friday after a 3% gain the day before. The move comes as broader market risk-off sentiment begins to ease.

The rebound started at the $0.0700 support level. On the chart, this bounce forms what analysts call a “morning star” pattern — a setup that can point toward short-term recovery.

The next key level to watch is the resistance trendline at $0.0776. A close above that level could open the door to a run toward the 50-day EMA at $0.0863. DOGE still sits well below both its 50-day EMA ($0.0863) and 200-day EMA ($0.1093).

Analyst Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) posted a chart showing DOGE sitting at the bottom of a multi-year bullish pennant pattern on the 3-month timeframe. He argues that price is coiling at the lower boundary of the pattern and that the setup points to a potential reversal. His view is that accumulating at the bottom of the pattern may be more effective than waiting for a confirmed breakout.

ETF Outflows and Retail Interest

Institutional demand remains thin. DOGE ETFs saw $871,110 in outflows Thursday — the third outflow since these products launched in late 2025. Before that, there had been nine straight sessions of zero outflow.

The largest DOGE ETF holds only about $13.7 million in net assets. Since launching, these products have not been able to slow DOGE’s price decline.

Retail traders are showing more interest. Open Interest in DOGE futures climbed over 7% in 24 hours to $1.04 billion. The funding rate moved up to 0.0099%, which shows traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions.

July Seasonality and Supply Pressure

History is not on DOGE’s side heading into July. Over the past 12 years, the coin has posted a median July return of -4.6%. Only five of those 12 Julys ended in positive territory.

DOGE is currently down around 55% over the last 12 months and sits roughly 90% below its May 2021 all-time high.

The coin has no supply cap. Around 5.2 billion new DOGE enter circulation each year, an annual inflation rate of about 3.4%. There is no burn mechanism or staking system to offset that supply. Roughly 14 million DOGE need to be absorbed by buyers every day just to keep the price flat.

RSI on the daily chart sits at 32, recovering from oversold levels. The MACD has crossed above its signal line, showing that downside momentum may be easing.

Immediate support sits at $0.0700, with a deeper floor around $0.0642.

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