SpaceX Is Coming to the Stock Market — But Should You Buy In?

TLDR

• SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, seeking a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion capital raise
• OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to go public later in 2026, potentially totaling over $3 trillion combined
• The 2026 IPO market has fewer listings but bigger deals — proceeds are up 35% despite a 41.5% drop in the number of IPOs
• Recent large IPOs have a poor track record: most mega-IPOs since 1999 lost value within six months of listing
• SpaceX reported up to $16 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit in 2025

SpaceX has confidentially filed for an initial public offering, setting the stage for what could be the largest IPO in stock market history. The company, led by Elon Musk, is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and aims to raise $75 billion in the offering.

If those numbers hold, SpaceX would overtake Tesla as the eighth-largest publicly traded company in the United States.

Musk also runs Tesla, where shares have returned nearly 23,000% since its June 2010 IPO. Investors are hoping SpaceX could deliver a similar run.

SpaceX reported up to $16 billion in revenue in 2025 and an $8 billion profit. That puts it in a stronger financial position than many companies at the IPO stage.

The company operates Starlink, the space broadband service, and earlier this year merged with Musk’s xAI, which includes the Grok large language model and social media platform X.

SpaceX is not alone in preparing to go public. AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic are both expected to file later in 2026. Together, the three companies could be valued at more than $3 trillion.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said on a recent earnings call that equity markets have been “extremely resilient” and that IPO activity could accelerate. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said the bar for IPOs is “very high” for investors in the current environment.

A Shifting IPO Landscape

The broader IPO market in 2026 is seeing fewer but larger deals. Through mid-April, 38 companies valued at over $50 million have gone public — down 41.5% from the same period last year. But total proceeds have risen 35% to $13.3 billion, according to Renaissance Capital.

This week, filtration company Madison Air raised $2.2 billion in the year’s biggest IPO so far, at a valuation of $13.3 billion. Its stock rose nearly 20% on its first day. Defense tech firm Arxis raised $1.1 billion and gained 38% on debut.

Other IPOs this year have not fared as well. Crypto firm BitGo, cancer biotech Eikon Therapeutics, and diabetes device company MiniMed are all trading sharply below their offering prices.

History Warns of a Rough Start

Despite the excitement around SpaceX, historical data points to a difficult first six months for mega-IPOs.

Since 1999, most large IPOs have underperformed shortly after listing. Facebook fell 38% within six months of its debut. Alibaba dropped 9%, General Motors fell 8%, and Saudi Aramco lost 15%. Only Visa posted gains, up 23%. On average, the biggest IPOs have lost around 10% of their value six months after going public.

For SpaceX, a 10% decline from its target valuation would wipe out roughly $175 billion in market value.

Retail investors also face the question of whether the best gains have already been made in private funding rounds. Pre-IPO access funds from firms including ARK Invest, Robinhood, and Baron Capital exist, but many have had a volatile year.

SpaceX has not yet announced a public filing date or confirmed a timeline for its listing.

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