Suspected insiders raked in over $850K on U.S.-Iran ceasefire bet

A cluster of traders on cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket walked away with outsized gains after correctly betting on a sudden U.S.–Iran ceasefire announced on April 7.

The nature of the trades has raised questions regarding the identities of the traders and the possible use of insider information to place bets.

On-chain data shows that four newly created wallets generated about $663,000 in combined profit by betting “YES” on a ceasefire occurring by April 7. 

The accounts exhibited unusual patterns, including being funded on the same day, entering the market just hours before the announcement, and placing bets at very low odds ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%. None had prior trading history and were used solely for this event.

Further analysis shows each trader deployed relatively small capital for outsized returns, with one wallet turning about $4,000 into over $129,000 and another converting roughly $18,000 into more than $218,000. A third generated over $174,000, while another brought in over $156,000.

In total, the four suspected insider wallets accounted for approximately $663,000 in gains.

In parallel, a known trader operating under the username BlueHorseshoe86 added to the windfall, generating approximately $194,000 from the same ceasefire outcome. 

Interestingly, the trader had previously earned around $260,000 from a separate geopolitical bet tied to Venezuela and the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, bringing their cumulative profit across both events to roughly $440,000.

Taken together, the combined profits from the ceasefire bets reached approximately $857,000.

Iran ceasefire rallies markets 

The market reaction followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which includes a halt to military strikes and the reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Iran signaled acceptance of the temporary truce while maintaining military readiness, with talks expected to begin soon under mediation involving regional players such as Pakistan.

Markets responded swiftly, with oil prices dropping on expectations of resumed shipping flows and global equities rising as tensions eased. 

However, analysts warn that the agreement remains fragile, with uncertainties around enforcement and prospects for a lasting resolution.