Robinhood, AppLovin, and Emcor will step into the benchmark later this month, while Caesars Entertainment, MarketAxess, and Enphase Energy bow out. Absent from the list, however, is Strategy (MSTR), the company that has transformed itself from a software vendor into the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin.

The omission raised eyebrows across Wall Street. By most measures, Strategy looks like an obvious candidate: it carries a market cap north of $94 billion, its stock is liquid, and analysts confirm it satisfies the S&P’s technical screens. Yet the firm’s unique exposure to digital assets may have given the committee pause. Strategy’s quarterly results swing wildly in line with bitcoin’s price, creating GAAP fluctuations that can stretch into the billions.

Bitcoin Balance Sheet Seen as Double-Edged Sword

Analysts at Benchmark suggested that this volatility, rather than any structural shortcoming, is likely why the committee delayed inclusion. They noted that similar hesitations marked the early days of Tesla and Meta, both of which were passed over despite eligibility before eventually making the cut. “These decisions often reflect the committee’s comfort level, not a company’s fundamentals,” they wrote.

TD Cowen, meanwhile, brushed aside concerns and reiterated its $640 price target on MSTR. The firm argued that Strategy’s actively managed bitcoin stack deserves to trade above spot value, particularly as digital asset treasuries — or DATs — spread across corporate America. Holdings from DATs recently topped one million BTC, underscoring the momentum behind the model Strategy pioneered.

Crypto Firms Edge Closer to the Mainstream

The decision comes only months after Coinbase became the first crypto-native business added to the S&P 500. With Robinhood now joining as well, observers say the committee is testing which forms of crypto exposure it’s ready to embed into the benchmark. For some, leaving Strategy on the sidelines looks less like a rejection and more like a waiting game.

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History suggests exclusion isn’t necessarily permanent. Facebook was kept out of the index until 2013 due to governance worries. Tesla, despite being one of the world’s most valuable companies, was only admitted after an initial snub in 2020. Analysts see Strategy’s absence in the same light: a reflection of timing, not disqualification.

For now, passive fund flows won’t boost MSTR’s liquidity the way they will for new entrants. But with a balance sheet stacked with more than 638,000 BTC — and growing — Strategy remains one of the most prominent companies not yet inside America’s most-watched index.

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