Tesla’s Robot Could Think Like a Human. Musk Says It’s Closer Than You Think

TLDR

• Elon Musk says Tesla aims to be among the first companies to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
• Musk claims Tesla could reach AGI “in humanoid/atom-shaping form,” going beyond current robot plans
• Tesla’s Optimus Gen 3 is expected to launch in Q1 2026, built for mass manufacturing
• Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says Gen 3 could be simpler than expected but a major design departure
• Tesla plans to spend over $20 billion in 2026, up from $8.5 billion in 2025, to fund Optimus, Cybercab, and Tesla Semi production

Elon Musk said on Wednesday that Tesla intends to be among the first companies to build Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI. He also said it could be the first to achieve AGI in a physical, humanoid form.

Musk made the comments in a post on X. He said Tesla aims to create machines capable of human-like actions and atomic-level manipulation.

AGI refers to a type of AI that can understand, learn, and carry out any intellectual task a human can do. It is currently still theoretical, with no confirmed example existing today.

Musk suggested last year that Tesla’s real-world driving data, robotics work, and computing power — combined with efforts at his AI company xAI — could help make AGI possible as soon as 2026. Tesla expects to spend over $20 billion in capital expenditure in 2026. That is more than double the $8.5 billion it spent in 2025.

The spending increase will support production of the Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and the Optimus humanoid robot. Tesla’s Fremont factory is being prepared to build Optimus units.

Optimus Gen 3 Expected in Q1 2026

Tesla has said it plans to announce Optimus Gen 3 in the first quarter of 2026. It describes this version as the first designed specifically for mass manufacturing, rather than for demonstration purposes only.

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, Musk described the robot’s planned capabilities. “Optimus 3 really will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior,” he said. He added that it could follow verbal instructions, replicate demonstrated tasks, or learn from video.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the Gen 3 robot could be “a substantial departure” from the current version. He noted it has been over two years since the last major full-body Optimus update, and the company has made several pivots during that time. Jonas also said Gen 3 could actually be simpler than expected.

AGI Race Heats Up

Other major players in the AGI space include OpenAI, Google’s DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta Platforms. Tesla is entering a crowded field, but Musk’s claim is that its physical-world data gives it an edge.

Musk has said Optimus Gen 3 could eventually scale to around one million units per year. The company plans to begin manufacturing the robot before the end of 2026.

Tesla stock was down 0.8% in premarket trading on Thursday, at $402.80. The stock has gained over 44% in the past 12 months.

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