Trading Moment: With the non-farm payroll data release imminent, Bitcoin is challenging the 65,000 support level. The market is likely to remain volatile in the short term.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Tonight at 9:30 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non-farm payrolls report and make an annual baseline revision. The market expects only 70,000 new jobs to be added in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. However, many economists predict the data may be far below expectations, even approaching zero growth, and the annual revision could erase over a million jobs. The market is betting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates two to three times this year. Analysts point out that if the non-farm payrolls data is lower than expected, the dollar will be under pressure, and gold may have a chance to rebound. State Street strategist Lee Ferridge further points out that if Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, takes over as Fed chairman, he may face pressure to cut interest rates in response to Trump's need to lower borrowing costs, leading to a larger-than-expected rate cut in 2026, potentially causing the dollar to fall by 10% for the year. He also believes the Fed has room for a third rate cut.

In the precious metals market, David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, believes the pullback in gold prices is an event-driven consolidation, with geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar continuing to support its long-term upward trend. A report from the Silver Institute predicts that silver will experience a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, although industrial demand is expected to decline by 2% due to reduced photovoltaic usage, while physical investment demand is projected to grow by 20%. Geopolitically, the US government's discussions about seizing Iranian oil tankers and the risk of Iran potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz have exacerbated market uncertainty. Furthermore, anxiety about AI is spreading on Wall Street, with investors shifting from seeking winners to avoiding potential losers, from wealth management firms to the software industry. Technical analyst Trader Mayne even predicts that the S&P 500 could fall by as much as 20%.

Bitcoin's short-term price action is currently oscillating, searching for direction. After breaking below a key channel, the price is now vying for psychological and technical support around $65,000. Analyst Murphy points out that this price level represents a more realistic "historical average turnover cost" after removing long-term dormant tokens; a breach of this level could signal a shift from a "shallow bear" to a "deep bear." Cyril-DeFi considers $65,000-$70,000 a key support zone; failure to recover $72,000-$75,000 could lead to a pullback towards $60,000 in liquidity. CryptoReviewing also notes that the $66,000-$68,000 range has accumulated significant leveraged liquidity and could become a target for liquidation. Analyst Tai Bai states that Bitcoin is approaching support levels at $66.5k, $64.5k, and $61.5k.

Regarding the market bottom, some analysts, such as MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe and billionaire Bill Miller, believe that $60,000 may already be the bottom of this correction. Jelle points out that an RSI below 37 usually indicates a cycle bottom, and the market may further decline to $52,000 or even $42,000; Kaiko Research believes that the current level is only the "halfway point" of the bear market, and the historically significant correction suggests that the bottom may be between $40,000 and $50,000; Sherlock warns of a potential pullback to $38,000-$40,000 based on a collapse in the BTC/Gold ratio; Roman estimates the bottom at $30,000-$35,000 based on 80% of historical bear market declines. Market maker Windemute believes that although leverage has been liquidated, spot trading volume remains low, market demand is insufficient, and future price movements may be limited. In the short term, the market may remain volatile, and a clearer upward trend will only be seen after key indicators such as ETF inflows, positive premiums, and stable basis rates are observed.

Ethereum market confidence remains fragile, currently fluctuating below $2,000. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee believes that if Ethereum can retest $1,890, it will form a "perfect bottom," pointing out that it is very close to the bottom and it's time to look for opportunities rather than sell. MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe also believes that, based on valuation metrics such as MVRV, Ethereum is in an excellent "buy fear" window. On-chain data shows a surge in ETH withdrawals from exchanges, suggesting accumulation in the $1,800 to $2,000 range. However, opposing views suggest that the current recovery may only be the beginning of a larger bottoming phase. Based on price fractal analysis from 2021, the market may consolidate for months between $1,300 and $2,000. While its MVRV Z-Score has entered the surrender zone of -0.42, it has not yet reached the extreme levels of historical bear market bottoms.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on February 11)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $67,056 (down 23.43% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $45 billion

• Ethereum: $1,954 (down 34.32% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $20.92 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.9%, ETH 10.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, XRP, ETH, SONIC, ZRO

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.49% / 51.51%

• Sector Performance: The crypto market continued its downward trend, with the meme sector leading the decline, falling over 4.5%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,320 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $215 million. This included $93.79 million in BTC liquidations, $49.1769 million in ETH liquidations, and $9.6895 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 10)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$167 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: -$13.8184 million, Grayscale's ETH saw the largest net inflow at $13.3173 million.

• XRP ETF: +$3.2624 million

• SOL ETF: +8.4305 million USD

4. Today's Outlook

• U.S. Labor Department: Non-farm payrolls will be released on February 11, CPI data will be released on February 13.

• Binance Wallet launches Alpha blind box airdrop; the first event will begin on February 11th.

• Aztec will conduct TGE on February 12th, with the ETH/AZTEC pool serving as the primary price discovery source.

• The Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed on February 11.

• US January Non-Farm Payrolls Change (in thousands): Expected 65,000, Previous 5 (February 11, 21:30)

• US January unemployment rate: Previous 4.4%, expected 4.4% (February 11, 21:30)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Pippin up 31.3%, LayerZero up 22.7%, River up 15.1%, Rain up 5.4%, and Monero up 3%.

5. Hot News

• Arkham: Trend Research's final loss on ETH in this round was $869 million.

• The largest ETH bullish whale on Hyperliquid added 5,000 ETH to its long position.

• Goldman Sachs disclosed that it indirectly holds $2.361 billion in cryptocurrencies through ETFs.

• Leung Fung-yee announced three new measures for the regulation of virtual assets in Hong Kong, including margin financing and perpetual contracts.

• Bitmine pledged over 140,000 ETH again 4 hours ago, equivalent to approximately $282 million.

• Robinhood shares fell after the earnings release, as its Q4 cryptocurrency revenue declined by 38%.

• LayerZero will launch a new blockchain called "Zero" for traditional finance, with Citadel, ICE, and Cathie Wood involved.

• A Hyperunit whale who once held over $10 billion in BTC lost $250 million due to going long on ETH on Hyperliquid.

• The EU plans a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency transactions with Russia to curb sanctions circumvention.

• Polymarket partners with Kaito AI to launch a social data-driven attention market.