S&P Global's stock opens with 16% collapse after missing 2026 earnings forecast

S&P Global’s stock got wrecked this morning, as shares dropped 16% right after the market opened, coming off a brutal 22% hit during premarket trading.

What triggered this is a weak 2026 earnings forecast that pissed off Wall Street first thing in the morning.

In its earnings report, S&P Global said it now expects adjusted profit for full-year 2026 to land between $19.40 and $19.65 per share. But analysts were betting on $19.94. That miss was all it took. Traders didn’t even blink before dumping. And this is after the stock had already fallen 15% this year through Monday.

Earnings disappointed while AI fears spread

That forecast landed right in the middle of panic over how fast AI might tear through software and data companies.

Even though some analysts still say companies with exclusive data like S&P could survive these AI waves, nobody’s listening right now. Markets don’t care about what might happen later. They’re looking at that earnings miss today. That’s what’s on the table.

Let’s talk about the numbers. In the fourth quarter, the company reported adjusted net income of $4.30 per share. Analysts were looking for $4.33. Close, but not good enough. Total revenue came in at $3.92 billion, up 9% from the same quarter a year ago.

On the GAAP side, diluted earnings per share were $14.66, a 19% jump year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $17.83, up 14%. That all sounds decent, but none of it mattered because investors saw one thing: guidance for 2026 came up short.

President and CEO Martina Cheung still tried to focus on what went right. She said, “We delivered a strong quarter driven by performance in all divisions, momentum in private markets, and expansion with our CCO clients. I’m very proud of what we accomplished in 2025. The scale of innovation and pace of AI integration in our products and internal processes was a leap forward for our clients and the business.”

But that wasn’t what investors wanted to hear. Not today.

Breakdown of revenue and the 2026 plan

Revenue from the Market Intelligence division grew 6%, mostly because of more subscriptions and higher usage. That gain was held back a bit by the sale of Fincentric, which the company dropped in August 2024.

Ratings revenue climbed 8%, helped by a 10% increase in non-transaction activity and a 6% bump in transaction-based revenue. Over in Energy, revenue rose 7%, but not without issues. Sanctions on some clients and lower non-subscription revenue made a dent.

The Mobility division saw a 9% jump, thanks to strong growth in Dealer services and the Financial & Other segment. Manufacturing didn’t add much. Meanwhile, Indices revenue surged 14%, thanks to rising asset-linked fees, more money flowing into ETFs, and gains from exchange-traded derivatives and custom data subscriptions.

For the year ahead, S&P expects organic revenue growth between 6% and 8%. It also confirmed that GAAP guidance will be shared later this year, once the Mobility business spin-off wraps up. That’s expected by mid-2026.

Cheung also confirmed that S&P gave back a huge chunk of cash to shareholders in 2025. The company returned $6.2 billion, including $1.2 billion in dividends and $5 billion in stock buybacks. That’s 113% of adjusted free cash flow. For 2026, S&P Global still plan to return at least 85% of free cash flow to investors, according to the earnings report.

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