This On-Chain Pattern Broke XRP in 2022, And Now It’s Back, Says Glassnode

According to new data from Glassnode, XRP holders are officially underwater again as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen below 1.00 in the first net-loss realization event since 2022. Basically, a majority of on-chain transactions with XRP are now being executed at a loss, confirming widespread capitulation.

The current SOPR reading near 0.96 follows a sharp drop from 1.16 in July 2025, and analysts warn that it closely mirrors the 2021-2022 consolidation phase. Back then, SOPR remained below 1.00 for months, locking XRP into a stagnant range that only resolved after a prolonged period of accumulation.

Are XRP holders in trouble?

Panic has returned to XRP market, and this time, it is baked into the blockchain itself. Glassnode data shows that XRP’s SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), a key profitability gauge for on-chain transactions, has collapsed below 1.00 after months of decline, confirming that most XRP holders are now selling at a loss.

What triggered this? The move below the cost-basis line — where the average holder’s acquisition price was breached — acted as a psychological and structural breaking point. As Glassnode notes, “XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis,” which sparked a wave of capitulation. The price followed, dropping from above $3 in mid-2025 to under $1.50 at present, mirroring the severity of the SOPR drawdown.

The last time XRP experienced a comparable SOPR plunge was between September 2021 and May 2022, a phase marked by sideways grind, false bottoms and failed bounce attempts before eventual base formation.

Unless SOPR reclaims 1.00 swiftly, XRP may remain trapped in this sub-cost basis zone, forcing weak hands out and resetting the base for any eventual recovery attempt. For now, capitulation is no longer a theory — it is measurable, visible and priced in.