Africa Must Rewire US$29.5 Trillion Mineral Endowment Around Industry, Infrastructure and Demand, Africa Finance Corporation Study Says

Africa hosts an estimated US$29.5 trillion in mine-site mineral value, representing about 20% of global mineral wealth, yet captures only a fraction of the economic value embedded in this endowment, according to a new study (http://apo-opa.co/4txjr5p) released today by Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) (www.AfricaFC.org).

Of this total, US$8.6 trillion remains undeveloped, reflecting an under-explored continent where fragmented geological data, uneven coverage, and limited transparency continue to elevate risk perception and constrain investment. The report argues that improving geological data availability and quality is a necessary first step to de-risk projects and unlock exploration capital.

The study also stresses that mine-site values significantly understate Africa’s true potential by failing to capture the far larger value created when minerals are processed into steel, aluminium, fertilisers, batteries and alloys. Measured at the point of industrial use, Africa’s mineral endowment expands by an order of magnitude—revealing substantial latent value.

Launched at Mining Indaba in Cape Town, the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals reframes the sector through an African development lens, placing industrialisation, infrastructure, and long-term regional demand at the centre of mineral strategy.

“Today, AFC is proud to launch the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals an initiative to reframe the sector through an African lens and convert endowment into execution pathways for our collective prosperity,” said Samaila Zubairu, President & CEO of AFC. “The Compendium maps full value chains and links reserves and production to processing capacity, power and transport infrastructure, and regional industrial corridors—improving data transparency to de-risk exploration, lower the cost of capital, and guide smarter investment into mining and the enabling infrastructure needed for beneficiation and integrated regional value chains.”

Mineral Development Anchored on African Demand

The Compendium finds that mineral production, enabling infrastructure, and demand rarely co-locate or align at scale, and calls for stronger regional planning anchored in Africa’s long-term demand fundamentals.

The steel value chain illustrates this misalignment. Africa hosts world-class endowments of ferro-alloys such as manganese, chromium and nickel, and iron ore supply is entering a new growth cycle. Yet these supply chains remain commercially tethered to Asian steel cycles rather than Africa’s own development trajectory.

This exposure is economically costly and can be seen playing out right now. The slowdown in Asian steel demand—linked to China’s property downturn and weaker construction—has transmitted shocks into African mineral markets. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, production quotas have been imposed on cobalt to manage oversupply and collapsing prices. In South Africa, primary steelmaking capacity has shut down amid weak domestic demand, high costs, and fragmented offtake. In Gabon, major manganese operations have periodically suspended production in response to softer alloy demand from Asia.

These outcomes are occurring even as Africa continues to expand transport networks, power systems, housing, and industrial capacity that require these materials. The constraint is not a lack of demand, but a lack of demand anchoring: the failure to align mineral production, processing capacity, and infrastructure investment around Africa’s long-term material needs.

Infrastructure Links Minerals, Processing and Demand

The Compendium places infrastructure at the centre of mineral strategy—not as a passive enabler, but as the system that links raw materials, processing capacity, and demand. Power cost and reliability, transport connectivity, and access to industrial land ultimately determine whether beneficiation is viable.

To this end, the report maps mineral deposits and producing assets alongside railways, ports, power generation hubs, and transmission networks to identify where regional value chains can realistically be developed. It calls for targeted interventions in shared rail corridors and cross-border power transmission, particularly in mineral-rich regions where coordinated infrastructure could unlock scale, reduce delivered costs, and support regional industrial platforms.

Infrastructure is also central to Africa’s competitiveness in a world of green industrialisation. Clean power, efficient logistics, and integrated corridors such as Lobito can reduce carbon intensity and improve access to markets where low-carbon and traceable supply chains are increasingly required.

African Minerals in a Fragmenting Global Economy

The Compendium situates Africa’s mineral strategy in a rapidly changing geo-economic landscape shaped by trade tensions, export controls, industrial policy, and efforts to reduce concentration risk. These shifts are elevating the strategic relevance of Africa’s mineral endowment—but only where the continent can offer reliable, value-adding alternatives.

Rather than positioning Africa as a marginal supplier of raw materials, the report argues for selective integration into strategically exposed segments of global supply chains, where diversification would materially enhance resilience—particularly for minerals with highly concentrated processing markets. These include manganese, rare earths, graphite, uranium, and critical alloying inputs for defence, aerospace, and clean-energy technologies.

Encouragingly, momentum is emerging:

• Angola is developing one of the world’s largest and highest-grade magnet metal rare earth deposits;
• Mozambique has become a key feedstock anchor for graphite and anode materials;
• Battery-grade manganese sulphate projects are advancing in Southern Africa; and
• Uranium production has resumed in Namibia and Malawi over 2024-25.

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