Jump Trading Backs Billion-Dollar Prediction Platforms Polymarket and Kalshi

TLDR

• Jump Trading is acquiring minority stakes in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for providing trading liquidity
• Polymarket recently raised $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation while Kalshi secured $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation
• The deal marks growing institutional interest in prediction markets, which analysts estimate could generate trillions in annual trading volume by decade’s end
• Polymarket operates as a decentralized platform on Polygon blockchain while Kalshi is a federally regulated centralized exchange
• Kalshi faces regulatory challenges from Nevada, Maryland, New Jersey and Ohio despite federal approval from the CFTC

Jump Trading, a Chicago-based quantitative trading firm, is set to acquire minority stakes in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. The company will receive equity in exchange for providing market-making services on both platforms.

Bloomberg first reported the news on Monday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the discussions. The exact ownership percentages were not disclosed in the report.

Jump Trading’s stake in Polymarket will scale based on the amount of liquidity the firm provides. The company will receive a set amount of equity in Kalshi as part of the arrangement.

Jump Trading was founded over 20 years ago and has become a major player in proprietary financial trading. The firm has expanded into digital assets as both a market maker and venture investor.

The company backs blockchain infrastructure projects and exchanges through its affiliated investment arms. Jump has made several contributions to crypto technology, including leading development of the Firedancer Solana client and the Wormhole multi-blockchain bridge.

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction market platforms by trading volume. Both companies recently completed funding rounds that valued them in the billions.

Polymarket raised $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange. The funding round valued Polymarket at $9 billion.

Kalshi secured $1 billion in funding in early December. The company was valued at $11 billion in that round.

How the Platforms Differ

The two platforms operate under different models despite both offering prediction market trading. Polymarket is a decentralized platform built on the Polygon blockchain.

The platform enables onchain settlement of prediction contracts. Users can trade on outcomes of real-world events through blockchain technology.

Kalshi operates as a centralized, federally regulated exchange in the United States. The platform has received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a Designated Contract Market.

Prediction markets gained mainstream attention during the 2024 US presidential election. Polymarket’s event contracts accurately forecast the election outcome.

The accurate predictions highlighted the potential of prediction markets as real-time information and risk-pricing tools. Industry analysts now project substantial growth for the sector.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimates that prediction markets may generate trillions of dollars in annual trading volume by the end of the decade. The research firm specializes in the global gambling and gaming industry.

Regulatory Challenges Persist

Sports-related contracts are expected to be a major driver of growth. Eilers & Krejcik partner emeritus Chris Grove told CNBC that sports betting could account for nearly half of the sector’s projected expansion.

Polymarket’s monthly trading volume has surged at the start of 2026. As of October, Kalshi had largely caught up to Polymarket in trading volumes.

Kalshi faces regulatory pushback at the state level despite federal approval. Regulators in Nevada, Maryland, New Jersey and Ohio have challenged the platform’s offerings.

The challenges have triggered ongoing litigation and cease-and-desist actions. Grove cautioned that legal and regulatory issues could slow adoption of prediction markets.

Both Google Finance and the National Hockey League have structured multi-year deals with Kalshi and Polymarket. The platforms continue to see monthly trading volume growth since September.

Crypto exchanges including Gemini and Crypto.com have released competing prediction market products. Market makers like Jump Trading provide liquidity by trading both sides of a market when there is no natural counterparty for buyers or sellers.

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