JPMorgan analysts have set a long-term price target of $266,000 for bitcoin as the cryptocurrency becomes more attractive compared to gold. The target reflects bitcoin’s improved position on a volatility-adjusted basis, though analysts say reaching this level in 2026 is unrealistic.
The bank’s quantitative strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said bitcoin looks more appealing after gold outperformed the cryptocurrency since October. Gold volatility has also risen sharply during this period. The combination of these factors has shifted the relationship between the two assets.
The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped to 1.5, marking a record low. This metric measures the relative volatility between bitcoin and gold. A lower ratio means bitcoin has become less volatile compared to gold on an adjusted basis.
JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is based on bitcoin’s market capitalization matching private-sector investment in gold. The bank estimates this gold investment at roughly $8 trillion, excluding central bank holdings. For bitcoin to reach equivalent market value at this investment level, its price would need to hit $266,000.
Bitcoin has faced pressure in recent weeks as crypto markets declined. The cryptocurrency fell nearly 10% in 24 hours and was trading around $65,600 as of Wednesday. Broader risk assets, particularly technology stocks, also weakened during this period.
The recent selloff pushed bitcoin below its estimated production cost of $87,000. JPMorgan analysts said this level has historically served as a soft price floor for the cryptocurrency. If prices stay below production cost for extended periods, unprofitable miners may exit the market, which would lower production costs.
Traditional hedges like gold and silver also saw sharp corrections recently. A $29 million hack of Solana-based DeFi platform Step Finance further hurt investor confidence across the crypto sector. JPMorgan noted that spot ETFs continued to see outflows, suggesting negative sentiment among both institutional and retail investors.
Position liquidations have been more modest compared to last quarter. This includes deleveraging in perpetual futures and activity in CME bitcoin and ethereum contracts. Stablecoins have also contracted, though JPMorgan says this reflects a delayed reaction to the overall crypto market cap shrinkage rather than large-scale investor exit.
Despite near-term pressure, JPMorgan maintains a stronger long-term outlook for bitcoin. The analysts said bitcoin’s evolving role relative to gold drives this view. They emphasized the $266,000 target highlights bitcoin’s long-term upside potential once negative sentiment reverses.
The bank previously outlined an upside case of roughly $170,000 over 6 to 12 months last November. That target was based on bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted comparison to gold. The new $266,000 target is higher but reflects a longer timeframe.
JPMorgan raised its long-term gold outlook to $8,000 to $8,500 last week. This revision contributed to the updated bitcoin target calculation. The analysts view bitcoin as an equally attractive hedge against catastrophic scenarios once market conditions improve.
Bitcoin would need sustained positive sentiment and improved market conditions to approach the $266,000 level. The analysts stress this target represents a long-term possibility rather than a near-term expectation. Current trading levels remain well below both the production cost estimate and the long-term price target.
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