ATOM Technical Analysis Feb 4

ATOM, despite a short-term 1.84% recovery under the dominance of the general downtrend, maintains its weak position below EMA20 ($2.18); with RSI at 39.81 in the neutral-bearish region, MACD showing a negative histogram, critical supports should be monitored in the $1.81-$1.96 range.

Executive Summary

ATOM’s technical chart signals a short-term recovery within the dominant downtrend, but the overall structure is bearish. Price at $2.05 testing minor resistance at $2.0552, Supertrend bearish and BTC’s downtrend creating additional pressure on altcoins. RSI balancing at neutral level while MACD confirms bearish momentum; a break above $2.14 in the short term could open bullish potential, but a break of $1.81 support could trigger a deep decline. Investors should position considering risk/reward balance, BTC movements below $75K are critical.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

ATOM exhibits clear downtrend dominance in higher timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W). Although price traded in the $1.89-$2.11 range with a 1.84% increase in the last 24 hours, the overall trend direction is downward. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and positions $2.48 as resistance. The short-term recovery can be evaluated as a bounce within the downtrend channel, but no trend change is expected without a sustained close above EMA20 ($2.18). Multi-timeframe analysis detects a total of 10 strong levels: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, and 2S/2R on 1W; these levels carry structural importance.

Structural Levels

Structural levels are determined based on Fibonacci retracements, previous swing lows/highs, and volume profile. The main support zone is $1.8100 (72/100 score), reinforced by strong volume accumulation; the level below is $1.9678 (71/100). Resistances include $2.0552 (64/100) as a minor test point just above current price, and $2.1446 (74/100) as a strong confluence. Higher up, there is $2.48 Supertrend resistance and $3.05 potential target. These levels highlight the fragility of market structure; a break below $1.81 triggers a bearish structure shift, while above $2.14 could create a bullish impulse.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 39.81, balancing in the neutral-bearish zone approaching the oversold region (below 30) without divergence; momentum is weak. MACD shows expanding negative histogram, bearish crossover confirmed below signal line – indicating short-term selling pressure. Stochastic %K 28.5, %D 32.1 gives oversold signal, but fakeout risk is high within the downtrend. Momentum confluence is bearish: Indicators do not support recovery, sustaining selling dominance.

Trend Indicators

Price trading below EMA20 ($2.18), EMA50 ($2.35), and EMA200 ($2.65); death cross (EMA20

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Support zones: $1.8100 (72/100) – strengthened by 1W swing low and volume cluster, break opens $1.23 bearish target. $1.9678 (71/100) intermediate support, 1D Fibonacci 0.618. Resistances: $2.0552 (64/100) current test point, daily pivot; no break. $2.1446 (74/100) strong R1, 3D high; $2.48 Supertrend. Multi-TF 10 levels (1D:2S/2R, 3D:1S/1R, 1W:2S/2R) high confluence, $2.14 with 74% score is critical turning point. Price squeezed at $2.05, volatility breakout expected.

Volume and Market Participation

24h volume $66.89M, moderate compared to 7-day average (45% increase); recovery volume low within downtrend, lacking conviction. OBV descending, no accumulation; CMF negative, smart money outflow. Volume profile POC at $1.89 (point of control), strong support volume. Resistance break without rising volume remains weak; bearish volume spike could accelerate $1.81 test. Market participation low, high probability of retail-driven bounce – institutional entry awaited.

Risk Assessment

Bullish target $3.0542 (45 score), 49% upside from current $2.05 (RR 1:2.1 assuming long entry $1.96 stop $1.81); however, probability 35% due to low score and BTC pressure. Bearish target $1.2271 (22 score), 40% downside, short RR 1:1.8. Main risks: BTC break below $75K (altcoin dump), volume deficiency, macro Fed decisions. Volatility ATR 0.12, max drawdown risk 15%. Position size 1-2% capital, trailing stop recommended; overall risk high bearish bias, longs counter-trend.

Bitcoin Correlation

ATOM correlates +0.85 with BTC; with BTC at $75,882 (-3.07%) in downtrend and Supertrend bearish, altcoins under pressure. BTC supports $75,472 / $72,930 / $61,211 – breaks send ATOM below $1.81. Resistances $77,795 / $81,773; BTC above $78K triggers ATOM rally to $2.14. BTC dominance rising, alt season distant; ATOM trades should be hedged with BTC key levels.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

ATOM’s technical chart exhibits bearish confluence: Downtrend, price below EMA, bearish MACD/RSI, low volume, and BTC negativity. Short-term $2.0552-$2.14 range to be tested, breakout direction-determining. Strategy: Short bias on $2.14 rejection targeting $1.81, long only on $2.14+ confirmation. Detailed data available in ATOM Spot Analysis and ATOM Futures Analysis. Wait-and-see approach recommended, risk management priority. (Word count: 1247)