SOL is testing the critical $95 support level while RSI at 31.50 is stuck in the oversold region; could this be either a strong recovery opportunity or a signal for a deep decline?
Market Outlook and Current Situation
Solana (SOL) is trading at $104.37 with a modest 0.57% increase in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend remains under downward pressure. On the daily timeframe, SOL fluctuating in the 95.95 – 106.12 dollar range continues to attract market attention with a volume of 7.57 billion dollars. Although this volume reflects SOL’s liquidity especially in altcoin rallies, the downward trend in recent weeks is making investors cautious. Bitcoin’s similar downward course is narrowing SOL’s room to maneuver, and the slowdown in DeFi protocols and NFT activities in its ecosystem is pressuring the price.
Looking at multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 11 strong levels stand out on the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 1 support/4 resistances on 1W. This distribution shows resistances dominating in the short term, emphasizing the difficulty of upward breakouts. SOL’s current position continues to stay below the EMA20 ($121.87), and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, marking $124.08 as resistance. Although the market is under the influence of the general crypto winter, SOL’s high transaction speed and low fee advantage preserve its long-term potential.
The calm news flow in recent times creates an environment where technical factors take center stage. Although development activities in the SOL ecosystem remain stable, the slight increase in volume suggests bottom hunters are taking positions. In this context, current levels may offer strategic opportunities for investors following SOL spot analyses.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The strongest support level stands out at $95.95 (score: 70/100); this level forms a base tested in the last 24 hours and across multiple timeframes. If broken, the next one at $100.87 (score: 60/100) comes into play, which is the last bastion for short-term reaction buys. In MTF confluence, these supports are strengthened by reinforcements from 3D and 1W charts, but if volume support remains weak, there is a risk of easing below $90. Historically, SOL has made strong rebounds from such supports, but it may struggle to hold under the current downtrend.
Resistance Barriers
The first resistance is positioned at $108.42 (score: 68/100); this is a barrier stemming from the daily chart pivot and proximity to EMA10. Above it, $117.25 (score: 66/100) forms a tougher obstacle, combining with Supertrend’s $124.08 resistance to limit upward movements. These resistances are reinforced by 4 strong levels on the 1W timeframe, and a breakout may require a 10-15% volume increase. Investors should monitor these levels together with SOL futures analyses in futures trading.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (14) at 31.50 points to the oversold region, signaling a possible divergence or recovery; however, MACD’s negative histogram and position below the signal line confirm that momentum is still bearish. The price remaining below EMA20 confirms the short-term trend is downward, while the 50-day EMA (around $130) stands as a distant target. Although Supertrend being bearish indicates weak trend strength, the low RSI level could trigger short-term buyers.
Overall trend strength analysis reveals the downtrend’s dominance persists. Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling a volatility explosion, and the descending trendline has not been broken according to volume profile. This combination requires us to expect a direction-determining move after consolidation; in a positive scenario, RSI rising to 50, in a negative one, falling below 20 could accelerate momentum.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
In terms of risk/reward ratio, the bull target at $150.64 (score:26) offers 44% potential from the current price, while the bear target at $50.67 (score:22) carries a 51% downside risk. This unbalanced R/R makes cautious approaches mandatory; long strategies from supports and short from resistances could be balancing. With high volatility, stop-losses should be placed below $95, take-profits in the 108-117 band. Liquidation risk is elevated market-wide, which could lead to sudden spikes.
The trading outlook is neutral-bearish tilted; a breakout above 108.42 brings positive momentum, while losing 95.95 could trigger deep selling. It may be a bottom accumulation opportunity for long-term investors, but in the short term, BTC dominance and macro factors will be decisive. Always follow updates on SOL detailed analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
SOL exhibits high correlation with BTC (%0.85+), directly affected by Bitcoin’s downtrend; although BTC has risen 0.60% from $78,708, Supertrend is bearish and main supports are in the $77,530 – $74,604 – $63,235 band. If BTC loses these supports, acceleration toward $95 on SOL is expected. Conversely, if BTC breaks resistances at $79,396 – $82,057 – $84,450, relief to $117 could come for SOL. Since BTC dominance is suppressing altcoins, SOL traders should primarily monitor BTC levels.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/sol-technical-analysis-february-2-2026-support-and-resistance-levels-and-market-commentary
