​​XRP Trend Stays Bearish Amid Outflows and Falling OI

• XRP stays in a strong downtrend, facing repeated support tests near $1.55-$1.58.
• Momentum and channel indicators confirm sellers dominate, limiting upside recovery attempts.
• Derivatives and spot flows show cautious positioning, with continued net outflows observed.

XRP continues to face sustained downside pressure as short-term charts reflect persistent bearish control. On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP/USD trades within a clearly defined downtrend marked by lower highs and repeated support failures. 

Bearish Structure Remains Intact on the 4-Hour Chart

Price action shows XRP trading below several key Fibonacci retracement levels, reinforcing the prevailing bearish structure. Moreover, XRP remains below its Donchian and Keltner channel bands, which highlights sustained selling pressure. 

Momentum indicators support this view. The ADX reading near 60 signals a strong trend that typically favors continuation over consolidation.

Recent candles show shallow recovery attempts, but sellers quickly absorb each bounce. Consequently, upside momentum struggles to build. 

The $1.58 to $1.55 area now acts as immediate support, with price repeatedly testing this zone. A decisive failure here would expose the $1.50 level, which traders view as both a psychological and structural threshold.

On the downside, a break below $1.50 could accelerate losses toward the $1.42 to $1.45 region. This zone represents the next notable support cluster on the four-hour chart. However, holding above $1.50 may slow the decline, though it would not reverse the trend.

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On the upside, resistance begins near $1.60 and extends to $1.66, which marks the prior breakdown area. Additionally, the $1.71 to $1.72 zone aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level and remains a key defense area for sellers. A stronger shift in structure would require a reclaim above $1.85. Beyond that, the $1.95 to $2.06 range continues to cap broader bearish control.

Derivatives and Spot Flows Reinforce Cautious Sentiment

Open interest data shows a clear shift from late-2024 excess toward controlled positioning. Peaks above $10 billion during the prior rally reflected aggressive leverage. Since then, open interest has declined sharply to roughly $2.8 billion. 

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Hence, traders continue trimming risk as price trends lower. However, open interest still remains elevated compared to pre-breakout levels, signaling continued derivatives participation.

Spot flow data further confirms this cautious tone. Persistent exchange outflows dominate recent sessions, including net outflows near $17 million. Inflows remain brief and reactive, failing to establish accumulation. Overall, XRP reflects a market focused on defense rather than conviction buying.

Technical Outlook for XRP Price: Key Levels Define the Next Move

XRP price continues to trade at a critical inflection point as short-term structure remains bearish, but downside levels are now clearly defined. On the four-hour chart, price compression near major support suggests volatility expansion could develop as the market approaches decision zones.

Upside levels: Immediate resistance sits at $1.60–$1.66, where prior support flipped into supply. A breakout above this range could open a move toward $1.71–$1.72, followed by $1.85 as the first trend invalidation level. A sustained reclaim above $1.95–$2.06 would signal broader momentum recovery and weaken bearish control.

Downside levels: XRP is currently defending the $1.58–$1.55 support band. A failure to hold this area increases the probability of a breakdown toward $1.50. Below $1.50, downside risk extends to the $1.42–$1.45 region, which marks the next structural demand zone.

Resistance ceiling: The $1.72 Fibonacci level remains the key barrier for bulls. As long as price stays below this zone, sellers retain near-term control.

From a structural perspective, XRP trades within a well-defined bearish trend marked by lower highs and lower lows. Elevated ADX readings suggest trend strength remains intact, favoring continuation unless a decisive reclaim occurs. Meanwhile, open interest contraction and persistent spot outflows reflect cautious positioning rather than aggressive dip-buying.

Will XRP Go Up?

XRP price direction hinges on whether buyers can defend the $1.55–$1.50 zone long enough to challenge overhead resistance. If demand stabilizes and momentum builds above $1.66, XRP could attempt a recovery toward $1.85. 

However, failure to protect $1.50 risks accelerating losses into the mid-$1.40s. For now, XRP remains locked in a pivotal range, where technical structure and conviction flows will determine the next leg.

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