AERO Technical Analysis Feb 1

AERO is stuck in the oversold region with RSI at 28.70; the MACD negative histogram maintains the downward momentum, while trading below the EMAs confirms the bearish trend. The slight increase in volume could lay the groundwork for a potential recovery, but overall momentum remains weak.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

AERO’s current price is at the 0.37 dollar level and has shown a 2.04% rise in the last 24 hours, yet the overall trend structure continues in a clear downward direction. The daily range has remained limited between 0.35-0.40 dollars, indicating low volatility. From a momentum perspective, the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and positions the 0.50 dollar level as resistance. Short-term trend strength momentum oscillators show selling pressure dominating, but the oversold level on RSI brings up the potential for a short-term reaction buy. Volume is at a moderate level of 23.29 million dollars; this volume does not sufficiently confirm the price movement, and accumulation/distribution patterns show a weak accumulation signal. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence analysis, a total of 8 strong levels have been identified: 1 support/0 resistance on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 1 support/4 resistances on 1W. This distribution emphasizes that resistances dominate in higher timeframes and long-term momentum remains negative. The main support level at 0.3518 (score 80/100) stands strong, while there are no prominent resistance levels (no score >=60). In terms of targets, the bullish scenario is calculated at 0.5767 (score 25), bearish at 0.0926 (score 22); these low scores reflect the uncertainty in momentum.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI(14) is currently at 28.70 and positioned deep in the classic oversold region (below 30). This level indicates that selling momentum is nearing exhaustion, but no regular bearish divergence is observed within the downtrend. On the contrary, the RSI forming a relatively higher low at recent price lows (around 0.35) carries hidden bullish divergence potential. If the price makes new lows while RSI holds in the 25-30 band, this highlights momentum weakening and a potential reversal signal. Regular bearish divergences seen in previous weeks (price making highs while RSI stays low) had triggered the decline; now, the possibility of a reversal is increasing. For divergence confirmation, RSI breaking above 30 and volume increase should be awaited. In this analysis, we evaluate the RSI divergence as an early warning of momentum change; the 40 level plays a pivot role for a buy signal.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

The oversold region (20-30 range) is critical for AERO; the 28.70 value has historically triggered reaction buys at a 60% rate. However, in a dominant downtrend, these levels can lead to false bounces. RSI failure swing low (upward breakout in a double bottom) should be monitored; under current conditions, if selling pressure continues, RSI could decline to 20, strengthening deeper downward momentum. When seeking confirmation with Stochastic, although the %K line has crossed below %D, an oversold crossover is approaching. Overall, RSI indicates that selling momentum is slowing, but additional confirmations are needed for a trend reversal.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in a bearish position; the signal line is below the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding in negative values. The size of the histogram bars has slightly narrowed in recent days, indicating that selling momentum has peaked and entered contraction. The bearish crossover (MACD crossing below the signal line) occurred around 0.40 levels and pushed the price below EMA20. The zero line crossover is far in the downward direction, with the histogram dipping below zero confirming the downtrend. In the near term, the histogram turning positive (with bullish divergence) could create a momentum surge; the current value around -0.015 signals distancing from extreme negativity. MACD histogram dynamics confirm that selling speed is decreasing, but buy momentum remains weak without a new bullish crossover. A similar bearish structure exists in volume-weighted MACD, with the lack of volume confirmation notable.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

AERO price is trading below EMA20 (0.47 dollars), clarifying the short-term bearish bias. The narrowing between EMA10 and EMA20 ribbon shows trend strength weakening; the price cannot approach EMA50 (around 0.52). Short-term EMA dynamics emphasize momentum slowdown with ribbon squeeze – narrowing ribbon signals consolidation before a volatility explosion.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 (0.55-0.60 band) are functioning as strong resistances; the price’s inability to test these levels preserves the long-term downtrend. EMA200 (around 0.70) is a distant target, with the downward-sloping ribbon alignment keeping trend strength negative. If EMA supports break (e.g., holding at 0.3518), bullish momentum could come with ribbon expansion. Current dynamics indicate the selling trend dominates.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is at the 77,571 dollar level and continuing its downtrend with a 1.78% drop in 24 hours; the Supertrend bearish signal poses risk for altcoins. AERO is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); if BTC breaks supports at 75,720 and 73,751, pressure on AERO increases below 0.35. If BTC resistances at 77,919-80,530 do not hold, altcoin momentum weakens further. BTC dominance increase negatively affects AERO; caution is advised in spot or futures positions for AERO without BTC recovery. If BTC falls to the main support at 64,655, AERO’s bearish target approaches 0.0926.

Momentum Result and Expectations

In the confluence of momentum oscillators, the RSI oversold condition stands out, but the MACD negative histogram and price below EMA dominate the bearish trend. Although the slight volume increase (10%+) supports accumulation patterns, resistance superiority in MTF preserves downside potential. Short-term expectation: if 0.3518 support is tested and holds, RSI jumps to 40 for momentum recovery; on breakdown, new lows. Long-term, BTC correlation is decisive, Supertrend flip should be awaited. Overall outlook is consolidation with weak momentum, divergence confirmation critical.