Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Price Must Reclaim $94K Golden Pocket to Avoid Further Drop

In January 2026, BTC experienced significant volatility, with price action fluctuating between $83,000 and $96,000. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring this period as it may define Bitcoin’s immediate trend. Observations from real-time trading charts and historical EMA reactions suggest that reclaiming $94,000 is crucial for avoiding further downside pressure.

Current Market Structure and Key Levels

BTC/USD has been trading within a descending channel on the daily and 4-hour charts, showing a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows over the past several weeks. On January 21–25, Bitcoin attempted to break above the $94,000 level (the Golden Pocket) but stalled, with declining trading volume indicating a lack of conviction behind the move.

Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $94K as support at $85,800 is tested, with risk of a drop toward $74,500. Source: aj_texas on TradingView

“On the 4-hour chart, BTC briefly reclaimed the prior trade zone on lower volume before stalling—suggesting participation remains cautious rather than conviction-driven,” noted crypto trader Shardi B, known for her multi-cycle EMA-based BTC analysis.

The Golden Pocket corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of Bitcoin’s recent impulse move, a level that has historically acted as both support and resistance during trend reversals. When BTC failed to sustain a close above this zone on January 13, the area shifted from support to resistance, limiting immediate bullish momentum.

Short-Term Support Challenges

Below the Golden Pocket, Bitcoin is testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $85,800—a historically reactive level where trend continuation or breakdown has previously occurred (notably in Q3 2023 and Q1 2024 post-impulse consolidations).

An X post warns Bitcoin may retest $83K–$85K if it fails to break $90K after a January fakeout above $94K–$96K. Source: Crypto Candy via X

Recent candlestick patterns show “bearish compression,” with consecutive lower highs forming a narrowing price range toward support. On January 24–26, BTC repeatedly tested this level, signaling weakening defensive buying pressure.

Failure to hold $85,800 could bring renewed attention to the macro bottom near $74,500, which aligns with the April 2025 Tariff Panic lows. Analysts view this zone as a structural reference point for historical market stress and potential long-term support.

Potential Scenarios for BTC Price

Market participants are observing two plausible near-term scenarios based on current price action and historical technical behavior:

• Scenario 1 – Downside Continuation: If BTC fails to hold $85,800 on higher volume, the descending structure could extend toward the $74,500 macro bottom. This scenario reflects historical retracements observed during prior post-impulse corrections.
• Scenario 2 – Reclaim & Bullish Momentum: For a sustainable rebound, BTC must decisively reclaim $94,000 with volume confirmation. A daily close above this level, particularly accompanied by expanding volume, would indicate renewed buying interest and reduce the likelihood of further downside. Until that confirmation occurs, minor bounces may resemble temporary corrections rather than trend reversals.

Weekly Technical Outlook

Shardi B highlighted the relevance of the weekly chart, emphasizing the 100-week EMA at $93,850. BTC must close above this moving average to signal a potential long-term floor. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $95,900 with a neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 41.5. Historical data shows that weekly EMA tests often coincide with market bottoms and trend stabilization.

Crypto trader Shardi B notes Bitcoin near $95,900 has repeatedly tested the 100-week EMA at $93,850, signaling a potential bottom if the week closes above it. Source: Don’t Follow Shardi B If You via X

“We have a full week to confirm this bottom candle,” Shardi B noted on X. “A weekly close above the 100-week EMA would strengthen the bullish thesis, providing evidence that buyers are stepping in at key long-term support.”

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is currently navigating between key technical zones: resistance at $94,000 and support around $85,800. Evidence from real-time charts, historical EMA responses, and Fibonacci retracement behavior indicates that a decisive reclaim of $94,000 is essential to restore bullish momentum.

Bitcoin was trading at around $89,184.913, up 1.11% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

While short-term traders may monitor daily and 4-hour confirmations, long-term holders can interpret weekly EMA closes as stronger indicators of potential market bottoms. In the coming days, Bitcoin’s price performance will clarify whether the market can regain upward momentum or faces extended consolidation near support levels.