Why Bitcoin Explodes at Settlement, Not Adoption

• According to speculators on X, Bitcoin price action is driven by forced settlement rather than traditional adoption curves.
• The market has separated into Spot Bitcoin and Paper Bitcoin and is creating a supply imbalance.
• A settlement squeeze can cause non-linear price jumps as exchanges rush to cover their short positions.

Most crypto users assume that prices grow because, as more users join the network, the value of its native token climbs. 

However, this perspective assumes that the asset is more like a tech stock than a cryptocurrency.

According to recent insights from analyst David in a post on X, Bitcoin’s price action does not move because of gradual use. Instead, it does so because of a mechanical event called a settlement squeeze.

Bitcoin Price Action and the Paper Supply Trap

Settlement squeezes happen when the market moves from trust to verification.

Normally, when users demand their actual coins, the system must resolve the gap between fake claims and real assets. As a result, the cryptocurrency reacts with a sudden explosion where the price jumps up in a matter of days.

According to David, the market currently trades two different versions of the same asset and every investor must understand the difference.

Spot Bitcoin is the real bearer asset, and it lives on the blockchain with a strict limit of 21 million units. This is the hard money that many investors know and believe in

On the other hand is Paper Bitcoin. David describes this asclaims on the asset held by exchanges, ETFs and lending platforms (database money in other words). 

When institutions issue more claims than coins, they expand the supply. This synthetic supply thus keeps Bitcoin’s price action suppressed and makes liquidity appear much higher than it really is.

The Game of “Trust and Verify”

Every person holding coins on an exchange is playing a game, where they choose between trusting the platform or verifying their ownership by withdrawing to a private wallet. 

As long as everyone trusts the system, the paper supply can grow. This way, the market remains stable but prices are low.

On the other hand, if a few people withdraw, nothing happens and the exchange uses its small pool of real reserves to fill the orders. 

However, the problem starts when a large group of users demand their funds at once. When claims rise above the actual coins held by the platform, the equilibrium breaks and problems begin.

In the middle of the crisis that results from this, the exchange is usually forced to go into the open market to buy the missing coins immediately. 

This turns the platform into a price-insensitive buyer, where they no longer look for a good deal. Instead, they buy to stay out of jail and keep their business alive. 

This urgency is what creates the next phase of Bitcoin’s price action.

The Non-Linear Settlement Squeeze

When the above scenario happens, it happens all at once.

Prices snap up within hours, and the withdrawals from the exchange might lower its reserves. But the public stays calm for now. 

Once the reserve is empty, the exchange must clear the entire sell side of the order book.

If the order book is thin, the price jumps heavily to fill just a small order because forcing a buy for a single coin can sometimes move the market by 50% or more. 

David imagined this happening to thousands of missing coins, and explained that this is how Bitcoin’s price becomes explosive.

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