Vitalik Buterin Details ‘Anti-Insanity Mode’ Strategy After $70K Prediction Market Gain

Buterin says betting against speculation works but warns crypto apps, governance, and SocialFi are drifting from real use.

Vitalik Buterin recently shared details about his activity on Polymarket by betting against extreme market sentiment. Over the past year, he earned $70,000, and his comments went far beyond trading results. He raised concerns about deeper structural issues in crypto.

Ethereum Co-Founder Shares Polymarket Profits and Prediction Approach

Vitalik Buterin disclosed that he made roughly $70,000 on Polymarket last year using a principal of about $440,000. According to him, profit came from avoiding panic-driven bets and not from complex tactics. He described the approach as “anti-insanity mode,” a method focused on markets dominated by irrational excitement.

Buterin added that markets like these form when panic or excitement takes over. He looks for markets where sentiment enters what he called “crazy mode.” 

Examples include bets on extreme political outcomes or predictions claiming the US dollar could collapse within a year. Once prices reflect those extremes, Buterin takes the other side.

“It involves politics and technology. If you want to make money, you need to go into those markets where people are caught up in crazy and irrational predictions; that’s where you can make money.”

Co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, said.

He added that most market participants are emotionally driven, which leads to poor odds. Many traders lose money by following the crowd instead of questioning assumptions.

Vitalik Buterin Thinks Crypto Governance and Apps Are Falling Short

Beyond prediction markets, Buterin also voiced concern about crypto’s application layer. Over the past year, Ethereum has made major progress in increasing transaction limits and lowering gas fees. Moreover, layer 2 networks reduced delays and made wallets easier to use.

However, technical growth has not translated into meaningful applications. Earlier ambitions focused on real coordination tools, from shared ownership platforms to new ways of organizing communities. Over time, attention shifted toward trading and short-term gains, leaving many of those ideas behind.

Crypto succeeded financially, but governance lagged behind. The rise of memecoins, driven more by momentum than purpose, shows how far priorities have drifted.

Buterin cited the surge of political memecoins as an example. He argued that rapid token launches drain credibility and shorten attention spans.

In addition, the Ethereum co-founder raised concerns about the current direction of SocialFi. He argues that when the main reason to post becomes tied to earnings, it crowds out genuine social use.

Buterin compared crypto social platforms with Substack, which focuses on writer curation and long-term community building. In contrast, many crypto projects emphasize token issuance over creator support. 

Prediction markets were also discussed during the interview. Buterin questioned their relevance, as most activity centers on short-term bets with limited real-world relevance.

He pointed to futarchy, a governance model proposed by economist Robin Hanson, as a more constructive use of markets. Under that framework, communities define objectives while markets determine the most effective policies. Projects such as MetaDAO are already experimenting with this tool.

The co-founder also added that Ethereum already supports AI agents operating on-chain without major changes. Crypto enables AI to hold funds, trade, and interact with decentralized systems. Still, he warned against forced integration, concluding that crypto continues to struggle to produce applications with a clear purpose.