Current market structure state – trend intact or shifting?
Market Structure Overview
CHZ, with its current price stabilized at the $0.05 level, the overall market structure still maintains the upward trend. The Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) pattern dominates, supported by recovery from the last swing low of $0.0499. However, Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and MACD shows a negative histogram, indicating short-term weakness signs. RSI at 54.75 is in the neutral zone, holding above EMA20 ($0.05) to sustain the short-term bullish structure. In Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 16 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances in 1D, 2 supports/4 resistances in 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances in 1W. These levels are critical points that will determine structural integrity. The main level to watch for structure breakdown (Break of Structure – BOS) is below the last swing low $0.0499; breaking here could trigger a shift to LH/LL structure and create a Change of Character (CHoCH). Above, $0.0555 and $0.0598 resistances confirm trend continuation with BOS. 24-hour change limited to +0.41%, narrow range ($0.05-$0.05), consolidation dominant.
Trend Analysis: Up or Down?
Uptrend Signals
The foundation of the uptrend is formed by the HH/HL pattern. The recent rise from $0.0455 swing low to $0.0555 swing high created an HL, reinforced by $0.0499 HL. The current price at $0.05 holds above EMA20, preserving short-term bullish momentum. This structure is a classic trend continuation signal: each new low higher than the previous low (HL), with potential for each high higher than the previous high. Bullish continuation target $0.0832, requiring BOS above $0.0598 to reach it. RSI neutral but above 50, momentum could shift from neutral to bullish. In MTF, 1W timeframe HH pattern is strong, long-term uptrend intact.
Downtrend Risk
Bearish risk increases with LH/LL formation. Supertrend bearish and $0.06 resistance, combined with MACD negative histogram, create short-term pressure. If $0.0499 swing low breaks, LH/LL begins, testing $0.0455 and $0.0410. Bearish breakdown target $0.0033 (long-term, low probability). CHoCH requires close below $0.0499; this would invalidate the uptrend. 3D timeframe has 4 resistances dominant, high pressure potential. BTC sideways but dominance bearish supertrend increases risk for altcoins.
Break of Structure (BOS) Levels
BOS levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: close above $0.0555 (78/100 score), then $0.0598 (64/100). This creates a new HH and strengthens the uptrend. Bearish BOS: below $0.0499 (87/100), triggers CHoCH, shift to LH/LL. Secondary bearish: break of $0.0455 (72/100). MTF BOS: 1D $0.05 pivot, 3D $0.0598 resistance, 1W $0.0410 support. Post-BOS targets: Bullish $0.0832, bearish $0.0410-$0.0033. Narrow range indicates setup ready for volatility breakout. Watch: Volume increase confirms BOS.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Last swing high $0.0555 (78/100), strong resistance, rejected. $0.0598 (64/100) upper level, key for BOS. These points should be tested for HH continuation. Breakout confirms trend strength; failure risks LH. Similar resistances in 3D/1W MTF form a structural resistance cluster. Importance: Above $0.0555 signals buyer dominance.
Recent Swing Lows
Last swing low $0.0499 (87/100), main support, preserves HL structure. $0.0455 (72/100) and $0.0410 (69/100) secondary. These lows form the uptrend foundation; breakdown triggers CHoCH. Importance: Holding $0.0499 validates bullish structure. Aligned with 1W support, long-term floor.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC $90,866 (+1.32%), sideways trend, key supports $89,096/$87,611/$84,681, resistances $92,284/$94,436/$97,265. BTC Supertrend bearish, dominance cautions altcoins. CHZ highly correlated with BTC; BTC drop below $89k accelerates CHZ test of $0.0499. BTC BOS above $92k triggers CHZ rally to $0.0555. BTC sideways extends CHZ consolidation. Watch: BTC dominance increase weakens altcoin structure.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Uptrend intact (HH/HL), bullish as long as above $0.0499. Wait for bearish BOS below $0.0499 for CHoCH. Short-term Supertrend/MACD pressure, but EMA20 support strong. MTF balanced, volatility increase will clarify structure. Details in CHZ Spot Analysis and CHZ Futures Analysis. Structures dynamic, monitor continuously.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/chz-market-structure-january-23-2026-trend-analysis
