Crypto Traders Bet Against U.S. Government Shutdown Despite Looming Jan. 30 Deadline

Crypto traders are currently betting against another U.S. government shutdown despite the upcoming deadline next week. This development is significant as it could impact the crypto market, just like the shutdown that occurred between October and November last year.

U.S. Government Shutdown Unlikely To Happen: Polymarket

Polymarket data shows only a 19% chance of a shutdown by January 31. These odds have notably fallen over the last few days despite the upcoming January 30 deadline, which could lead to a partial shutdown.

CNBC reported that Democrats are currently weighing whether to use the January 30 deadline to force reforms in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). A potential standoff between both parties could lead to a partial government shutdown of DHS agencies.

This follows a shutdown that lasted from October to November last year, the longest in U.S. history. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has described the looming shutdown as one of the multiple headwinds to watch out for in the markets in the coming days, alongside the Trump tariffs and Yen carry trade fears.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced over the weekend 10% tariffs on eight European nations, including France, Germany, and the U.K., starting February 1. The European Union (EU) is currently weighing retaliatory tariffs, which have sparked fears of another trade war and have led to a Bitcoin crash from above $95,000.

As CoinGape reported, Bitcoin is also falling amid fears of a potential rate hike in Japan. The Bank of Japan will meet on January 22, although crypto traders are currently betting that there won’t be a change in interest rates. Polymarket data shows a 99% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Shutdown Could Be A Headwind For BTC

Crypto commentator The Altcoin Daily warned that a U.S. government shutdown could be a headwind. They listed it as one of the reasons BTC could fall off a cliff in the short term, alongside the CLARITY Act issues and the DOJ’s probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. “These three potential problems would be catastrophic to the Bitcoin/crypto bull case in Q1 2026,” The Altcoin Daily added.

Ahead of a potential U.S. government shutdown, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market had reacted to the shutdown that occurred last year. The BTC price had first rallied to its current all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 in the first week of the shutdown. However, it then crashed to around $100,000 following the infamous October 10 crash.

The crash is believed to have been mainly due to Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China at the time. As such, a potential shutdown could be a tailwind, as Bloomberg had reported that the last shutdown pushed investors to safe-haven assets such as gold and BTC.