Next week's macro outlook: The Israeli-Iranian missile war is fully escalating, and the "wartime market" of gold and crude oil may wipe out all shorts
PANews reported on June 14 that the conflict between Israel and Iran suddenly escalated on Friday. At the close of the day, commodities were the first to bear the brunt of the pressure brought by the ongoing conflict. U.S. oil climbed by about 6%, and the cumulative increase this week was more than 10%. Spot gold rose by nearly $50, firmly standing above the $3,400 mark, and rose by more than 3.7% this week. In the coming week, many central banks including the United States, Britain and Japan will hold policy meetings, and the conflict between Israel and Iran will continue to escalate this week. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 20:30 on Monday, the New York Fed manufacturing index for June will be released;
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision;
At 20:30 on Wednesday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 14;
At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations;
At 02:30 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference.
Next Tuesday, monthly U.S. retail sales data will be in focus. Investors will want to see whether tariffs have led to higher prices, weighing on consumer spending. With a 90-day pause in a series of Trump tariffs set to end on July 8, trade developments are likely to continue to unsettle markets.
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