The cut-throat competition in the perpetual decentralized exchanges, popularly known as Perp DEXes, has stalled the market leader, Hyperliquid.
Rivals such as Binance-backed Aster saw significant traction in H2 2025. But most analysts considered Lighter the real threat to Hyperliquid, citing several features, including privacy.
However, ahead of the Lighter [LIT] token debut and airdrop for early users, Messari research analyst Sam has downplayed its threat.
In fact, Sam projected that HYPE could outperform LIT in the mid-term, adding that,
For Sam, Lighter’s perp volume was ‘falling off a cliff’ because the initial farming period that attracted most traders from Hyperliquid is almost over.
Source: DeFiLlama
Will Hyperliquid revenue recover?
In H2, Hyperliquid’s perpetual volume dropped significantly amid rising competition and lower trading activity in Q4 2025. It fell from $396 billion to $165 billion — That’s about 60% decline in traction.
Source: DeFiLlama
The cool-off also compressed the generated fees and revenues used to drive HYPE buybacks.
In fact, average weekly revenue dropped from $20 million in Q3 to as low as $7 million in late December -A whopping 65% revenue shortfall.
With ongoing monthly unlocks alongside the low pace of token buybacks, bears had a field day with HYPE. However, Sam believes a reversal could be likely if Lighter farmers return to Hyperliquid.
HYPE vs. LIT price action
Meanwhile, Lighter officially announced the LIT token, noting that 25% of the total supply of 1 billion tokens will be immediately airdropped to early users.
The rest of the tokenomics mirrored HYPE, including a 1-year vesting period for teams and utilizing revenue for buybacks.
The token’s TGE listing price was $3.3, but it has dropped to $2.7, representing a 21% decline in the past seven days of trading. It experienced a 16% decline over the past 24 hours.
On the other hand, HYPE was up over 2% in the 24 hours and could flip short-term bullish if it clears the recent peak at $26.4. The next roadblock and overheat resistance would be $27.
Source: HYPE/USDT, TradingView
Final Thoughts
- Lighter perp volume has dropped following the end of airdrop farming, and the LIT price also declined.
- HYPE experienced a short-term bounce, but it was unclear whether the recovery would extend.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/hype-steadies-as-lits-post-airdrop-sell-off-deepens-what-happens-next/
