Crypto Cues to Watch Heading Into 2026 & Beyond

The digital asset markets are approaching the year's end with limited liquidity and a macroeconomic calendar from the US that is under careful observation.

Although the movement in risk assets is currently stable, a few significant events this week may impact immediate sentiment, especially for cryptocurrencies that often respond dramatically in low-volume scenarios.

As we move into the New Year with liquidity diminishing, it is increasingly probable that this week's events will lead to short-term volatility spikes instead of creating lasting trends.

Investors need to remain discerning, concentrating on crucial technical indicators as they await more definitive signals following the normalization of liquidity.

United States-FOMC Minutes (Tue): The Federal Reserve is set to unveil the minutes from its most recent policy meeting.

Market participants will seek insights regarding the timing and speed of possible interest rate cuts in 2026.

A change in tone could impact risk appetite in both equity and cryptocurrency markets, particularly given the current reduction in liquidity.

United States-Jobs Data (Wed): The latest figures on initial jobless claims will provide valuable information regarding the current state of the US labor market.

Weaker data might strengthen the belief in monetary easing, whereas robust figures could temper rate-cut hopes and exert pressure on risk assets in the near term.

The US stock markets will be closed on Thursday on account of New Year’s Day, which will further diminish liquidity in the market.

Under these circumstances, even small surprises can result in significant price fluctuations, especially in around-the-clock markets such as cryptocurrency.

Key Levels to Watch

The attention is on Bitcoin's ability to maintain its position above the $89,500–$90,000 support zone amidst the upcoming data releases.

A softer interpretation of the FOMC minutes or lower jobless claims might enable BTC to recover to $90,500, potentially paving the way for a move toward the $93,000–$93,650 resistance area.

On the downside, a decline of $89,500 could pull Bitcoin back toward the $87,500–$88,000 range, particularly if liquidity continues to be limited.

Ethereum is anticipated to follow Bitcoin's lead, albeit with a bit more fluctuation.

ETH is stabilizing above crucial support levels around $2,900–$3,000. A favorable macro response might enable ETH to regain the $3,200–$3,300 resistance zone, reinforcing the optimistic outlook heading into early 2026.

If the $2,900 level is not maintained, there could be a significant decline toward the $2,700–$2,650 range.

Macro Themes for 2026

Digital assets are likely to be heavily impacted by a number of broad macro themes, which will be relevant as we transition from 2025 to 2026.

Even if cryptocurrencies weren't the primary focus, policy, technology, and trade developments were nevertheless very relevant to market participants.

The relationship between cryptocurrency markets and global macroeconomic factors is becoming more pronounced.

Fluctuations in risk assets, alterations in monetary policy, and variations in dollar liquidity have played a significant role in determining the movement of capital into and out of digital assets.

The recent months highlighted this connection: growth projections weakened in certain areas, AI discussions influenced risk sentiment, and trade policies started to impact wider price indices.

Central Banks & Crypto

The political climate in many countries changed in 2025, casting doubt on the autonomy of central banks and heightening the intensity of debates about future monetary policy.

Market nervousness has been heightened by speculation about impending leadership changes at major central banks, with experts debating the effects of possible political pressures on monetary policy, credibility of inflation forecasts, and the state of the bond markets.

Reduced trust in traditional monetary policies often leads to a heightened interest in alternative assets for preserving wealth. When the stability of currency comes into doubt, there may be an increased interest in decentralized or limited digital assets.

Simultaneously, ambiguity surrounding policy can lead to periods of heightened caution.

Temporary downturns in high-risk assets frequently impact cryptocurrencies as well, leading to decreased liquidity and heightened price drops.

It is essential for market participants to keep a vigilant eye on announcements and interactions from central banks in 2026; any changes in perceived autonomy or clear political meddling can lead to swift adjustments in risk premiums across various markets.

Cryptos have not been averse to that narrative, and the new year could be even more pronounced for such market reactions.

AI Surge, Bubble & Volatility

2025 witnessed a remarkable acceleration in the adoption of artificial intelligence, characterized by a swift increase in user engagement with leading consumer-oriented models and a notable rise in the valuations of AI-related equities.

Nonetheless, latest indicators suggested that revenue generation and enterprise income acknowledgment fell short of projections, prompting concerns regarding short-term profitability for certain rapidly expanding companies.

The crypto market has shown a strong correlation with trends in the wider technology sector.

A shift in equity values due to a reassessment of AI projections might lead to a ripple effect, constraining liquidity and causing a decline in digital-asset prices along with other high-risk investments.

On the other hand, ongoing advancements in AI infrastructure and increased adoption by businesses may lift market sentiment, potentially attracting speculative investments back into crypto.

The trajectory hinges on whether advancements in AI confirm revenue models or trigger a significant reevaluation of valuations.

Will 2026 Be the Tariff Consequence Year?

The tariff measures put in place this year did not translate into consumer prices as swiftly as anticipated by certain analysts.

But, it became increasingly clear that rising import costs and supply-chain disruptions were beginning to impact retail prices and corporate profit margins.

Ongoing inflation driven by trade limits the capacity of central banks to ease their policies.

Prolonged elevated interest rates may dampen risk tolerance and limit the capital available for speculative investments.

In situations of stagnant growth coupled with high inflation, individuals managing their portfolios might reconsider conventional protective strategies.

Some market participants consider specific digital assets as possible safeguards against inflation, although the empirical evidence is still inconclusive.

Active traders ought to keep an eye on import price indices, producer price inflation, and corporate margin reports to catch early indications that tariff pass-through is gaining momentum.

Overall, recent political changes in key economies have heightened the possibility of non-economic factors influencing financial markets.

In certain situations, decision-makers might seek to impact the landscape through fiscal or monetary appointments, leading markets to view these moves as possible catalysts for fluctuations in currency and increased sovereign risk premiums.

Historical trends indicate that periods of dollar decline may align with a heightened interest in global alternative assets.

Should political events undermine trust in the dollar, there could be an increase in interest in digital assets.

Nonetheless, market stress influenced by political factors can lead to sudden risk-averse shifts, curtailing speculative interest and decreasing liquidity throughout crypto exchanges.

When political uncertainty jeopardizes the stability of reserve currencies, it becomes increasingly crucial to implement strategies that mitigate risks associated with currency and interest-rate fluctuations.

The macro trends that developed this year will significantly influence the initial months of 2026.

Perspectives for 2026 vary significantly, showcasing differing anticipations regarding liquidity, policy measures, and macroeconomic disruptions.

The variation heightens the likelihood of sporadic fluctuations in crypto markets through the initial half of 2026.

Even when broader analyses do not specifically address digital assets, the themes they emphasize continue to be vital for crypto markets.

In 2026, the interplay of central bank autonomy, AI valuation trends, tariff-induced inflation, and the stability of the dollar is expected to be a key factor influencing market movements.

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In this episode of Blockcast, host Takatoshi Shibayama sits down with Cais Manai, co-founder of TEN Protocol, to delve into the intricacies of blockchain privacy and decentralization. Cais shares his journey from discovering Bitcoin in 2012 to co-founding TEN Protocol, a project focused on integrating privacy into Ethereum's Layer 2 solutions.

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