Downtrend Holds As Buyers Defend Late December Base

• ADA holds the $0.34–$0.35 base, but the descending channel still controls trend direction.
• Repeated failures below the $0.36–$0.38 EMA cluster keep rallies corrective.
• Midnight and treasury funding improve long-term outlook, not short-term price action.

Cardano price today trades near $0.35 as the token attempts to stabilize into the final sessions of 2025. ADA remains under pressure after a 58% decline year to date, with price still nearly 90% below its $3.10 all-time high. Sellers continue to control the broader structure, but downside momentum has slowed as the market probes for a durable base.

Descending Channel Defines The Primary Trend

On the daily chart, Cardano remains locked inside a well-defined descending channel that has guided price lower since October. Each rally attempt has stalled beneath falling resistance, while successive lower lows confirm trend continuation.

Price is currently hovering near the lower half of the channel, holding just above the $0.34 to $0.35 demand zone. That area has acted as short-term support throughout December, absorbing sell pressure but failing to spark meaningful follow-through.

The Supertrend remains bearish near $0.42, reinforcing that trend control has not shifted. Parabolic SAR dots continue to print above price on the daily timeframe, signaling that sellers still dictate direction despite recent stabilization.

EMAs Cap Every Recovery Attempt

Shorter timeframes show why rebounds keep failing. On the two-hour chart, ADA trades below all major EMAs, with the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period averages stacked bearishly between $0.35 and $0.38.

Each bounce into this EMA band has been met with supply, turning rallies into fade opportunities rather than trend reversals. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting compression rather than expansion. This typically precedes a larger move, but direction remains unresolved.

As long as ADA stays below the $0.36 to $0.38 EMA cluster, upside attempts lack structural confirmation. Buyers need a clean reclaim of this zone to shift momentum out of neutral-bearish territory.

Fundamentals Add Complexity To The Price Narrative

While charts remain heavy, the fundamental backdrop has grown more active. Charles Hoskinson’s renewed focus on the Midnight sidechain has injected narrative energy into the ecosystem. His description of Midnight as the “Manhattan Project” of privacy and compliance has drawn attention, especially after the NIGHT token posted strong volume and a near 20% weekly gain.

Midnight’s positioning around smart compliance rather than adversarial privacy marks a strategic shift aimed at institutions. Cross-chain plans, including a potential Solana bridge, further expand that ambition. However, these developments have not yet translated into direct demand for ADA.

At the same time, Hoskinson triggered fresh debate on Dec. 25 after posting a holiday message saying 2025 was a “long, hard year” and urging holders not to let the “fire go out.” A user immediately accused him of dumping ADA near $3 and refusing to buy back around $0.36. 

Hoskinson replied fast and flatly denied selling at the peak, saying repeating the claim does not make it true and dismissing the narrative as bot-driven misinformation. The exchange captured the mood around ADA into the year-end. Price is weak, and the community is less willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

Treasury Funding Signals Long Term Intent

The approval of a 70 million ADA treasury withdrawal adds another layer to the story. The funds are earmarked for stablecoins, oracles, custody, analytics, DeFi infrastructure, and real-world asset initiatives. In theory, this addresses long-standing gaps that have limited Cardano’s competitiveness.

The market, however, is treating this as a long-term investment rather than an immediate price catalyst. Execution risk remains high, and traders are unlikely to reprice ADA until tangible results emerge.

Outlook. Will Cardano Go Up?

Cardano is approaching a decision zone as 2025 closes.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $0.38 that flips the EMA cluster into support would signal that the base is complete. That move opens the door toward $0.42 and the upper channel boundary.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below $0.34 would invalidate the base and expose the next liquidity zone near $0.30. Losing that level risks accelerating downside into early 2026.