The Last Time This Happened, XRP Spiked 850%: Details

XRP has spent nearly 70 days below the pivotal 50-week SMA, with historical data triggering bullish expectations for the future.

The broader crypto market has continued to face bearish pressure since early October, with the global crypto market cap losing over $1.38 trillion worth of value within this period. Amid this downward pressure, XRP has fallen victim to the bears as well, having contributed $71.66 billion to the broader market loss.

After holding above the $2 support for most of the downtrend, XRP eventually gave up this level on Dec. 14, leading to steeper declines. However, market analyst Steph (@Steph_iscrypto) believes XRP may only be building strength for a breakout, as it observes a pattern that has historically led to massive price surges.

In his latest analysis, Steph confirmed that XRP has been trading below the crucial 50-week simple moving average (SMA) since this downward push began. While this indicates intense bearish pressure, XRP often stages impressive explosive rallies after spending an elongated period of time, specifically 50 to 84 days, below this moving average.

A Persistent Trend

Data from Steph’s weekly XRP chart confirms that this pattern has played out three times since 2018. Notably, after XRP collapsed from the $3.31 peak in January 2018, it entered a bearish phase.

As the downward push persisted, XRP eventually broke below the 50W SMA in early June 2018 and remained underneath it for 10 weekly bars or 70 days, with its lowest price being $0.2450 during this period. After this, it soared to $0.764 in September 2018, representing a 211.8% rise from the $0.2450 low.

In 2021, a similar trend played out. Specifically, XRP slumped below the 50W SMA in December 2021 and traded underneath the moving average for 49 days. After it recovered, what followed was a spike to $0.9127 by February 2022, representing a 68% rise from the $0.5461 floor price during the downtrend.

The last time this pattern occurred was in 2024. Again, XRP dropped below the 50W SMA in April 2024 and stayed below the mark for 84 days. The recovery that ensued on the back of Donald Trump’s election victory pushed prices to the $3.66 peak in July 2025. This marked an 857% rise from the $0.3824 bottom within the downtrend.

XRP Repeating History?

After maintaining a price above the 50W SMA for most of this year, XRP slumped below it again in October 2025 and has now spent 10 weekly bars under it. This translates to 66 days, with four more days left before the close of this week. If XRP replicates the duration of the 2024 trend, it could continue to underperform until the end of December 2024, aligning with 84 days.

However, if the pattern repeats, another 857% explosion would push the XRP price to $17.3 from the $1.81 floor price during the ongoing downtrend. Even if XRP only managed to record half of the 2024/2025 run, amounting to a 428% increase, this would still lead to a $9.55 peak, representing a new all-time high. Nonetheless, there’s no guarantee history will repeat.

Meanwhile, analyst Chart Nerd pointed out that most XRP indicators now point to a potential bottom, indicating that a recovery could be imminent. Specifically, the RSI has moved to an oversold position, and the MACD has built a firm foundation. In addition, the RSI is compressing, with the 5-wave structure completed.