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Robinhood looks better placed than Coinbase for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says

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Robinhood looks better placed than Coinbase for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says

Robinhood stands to gain more from prediction markets than Coinbase as users plan to deploy fresh capital rather than sell existing crypto, the bank said.

By Will Canny, AI Boost|Edited by Nikhilesh De
Dec 17, 2025, 4:10 p.m.
Robinhood looks better placed than Coinbase for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says. (CoinDesk)

What to know:

  • Robinhood and Coinbase users are about nine times more likely to use prediction markets than non-users, Mizuho found.
  • About 50% of Robinhood users plan to invest new money in prediction markets, while 37% of Coinbase users expect to sell cryptocurrency to fund their activity, according to the report.
  • The bank raised its Robinhood 2026–2027 revenue estimates and kept its $172 price target, while trimming Coinbase’s target to $280.

Robinhood (HOOD) could see more revenue upside from prediction markets than Coinbase (COIN) as users deploy fresh cash rather than sell existing holdings, according to a survey by Japanese investment bank Mizuho (MFG).

"We expect a bigger percentage revenue benefit to HOOD vs. COIN given that the survey showed that users on that platform are more inclined to fund prediction markets portfolio with fresh money," wrote analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins, in the Tuesday report.

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Robinhood and Coinbase users are far more likely than other investors to trade prediction markets, with activity skewed to economic and political events, the analysts found. The bank raised its revenue forecasts for Robinhood but cut its Coinbase price target on concerns that prediction-market activity may cannibalize crypto trading.

Mizuho surveyed more than 230 Robinhood and Coinbase users and found they are about nine times more likely to participate in prediction markets than respondents who don’t use either app. Economic events (81%) and political events (49%) were the most popular themes among respondents, with sports (47%) close behind, the bank said.

How users plan to fund those trades is where the two platforms diverge, according to the report. About 50% of Robinhood respondents said they expect to use fresh money to trade prediction markets, while selling traditional portfolios or crypto ranked much lower (12% and 10%, respectively).

Coinbase users, by contrast, most often cited selling crypto (37%) and adding new money (37%) as their primary sources of funds, raising what the analysts described as a risk that prediction markets could cannibalize existing crypto trading revenue.

That funding mix leads to see a bigger medium-term revenue boost for Robinhood than for Coinbase, the analysts said, even though COIN users expect to allocate a slightly higher share of their portfolio to prediction markets in about a year (15% vs. 13% for HOOD).

With Robinhood’s prediction-market business on track for about a $300 million fourth-quarter run rate and some 2.5 billion contracts in October, Mizuho said it is raising its 2026–2027 revenue estimates for the company by 6%–7%. The bank kept its outperform rating on the shares and its $172 price target.

Coinbase is expected to launch a prediction-market product on Wednesday, which Mizuho views as a positive step but not yet enough to change its numbers.

The bank said it has not incorporated any prediction-market upside into its Coinbase model given uncertainty around the final product design and economics, and the potential for crypto selling to fund prediction trades. Mizuho also cited weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter trends and lower bitcoin BTC$86,621.38 prices as it cut its Coinbase price target to $280 from $320, and reiterated its neutral rating on the stock.

Robinhood was 2.6% higher in early trade, at $122.53. Coinbase was 2% higher, trading at $257.63.

Read more: Prediction Markets Are Quietly Turning Into a New Asset Class, Citizens Says

RobinhoodCoinbasePrediction MarketsMizuho
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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BitcoinWorld Crucial US Stock Market Update: What Wednesday’s Mixed Close Reveals The financial world often keeps us on our toes, and Wednesday was no exception. Investors watched closely as the US stock market concluded the day with a mixed performance across its major indexes. This snapshot offers a crucial glimpse into current investor sentiment and economic undercurrents, prompting many to ask: what exactly happened? Understanding the Latest US Stock Market Movements On Wednesday, the closing bell brought a varied picture for the US stock market. While some indexes celebrated gains, others registered slight declines, creating a truly mixed bag for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, climbing by a notable 0.57%. This positive movement suggests strength in some of the larger, more established companies. Conversely, the S&P 500, a broader benchmark often seen as a barometer for the overall market, experienced a modest dip of 0.1%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite also saw a slight retreat, sliding by 0.33%. This particular index often reflects investor sentiment towards growth stocks and the tech sector. These divergent outcomes highlight the complex dynamics currently at play within the American economy. It’s not simply a matter of “up” or “down” for the entire US stock market; rather, it’s a nuanced landscape where different sectors and company types are responding to unique pressures and opportunities. Why Did the US Stock Market See Mixed Results? When the US stock market delivers a mixed performance, it often points to a tug-of-war between various economic factors. Several elements could have contributed to Wednesday’s varied closings. For instance, positive corporate earnings reports from certain industries might have bolstered the Dow. At the same time, concerns over inflation, interest rate policies by the Federal Reserve, or even global economic uncertainties could have pressured growth stocks, affecting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Key considerations often include: Economic Data: Recent reports on employment, manufacturing, or consumer spending can sway market sentiment. Corporate Announcements: Strong or weak earnings forecasts from influential companies can significantly impact their respective sectors. Interest Rate Expectations: The prospect of higher or lower interest rates directly influences borrowing costs for businesses and consumer spending, affecting future profitability. Geopolitical Events: Global tensions or trade policies can introduce uncertainty, causing investors to become more cautious. Understanding these underlying drivers is crucial for anyone trying to make sense of daily market fluctuations in the US stock market. Navigating Volatility in the US Stock Market A mixed close, while not a dramatic downturn, serves as a reminder that market volatility is a constant companion for investors. For those involved in the US stock market, particularly individuals managing their portfolios, these days underscore the importance of a well-thought-out strategy. It’s important not to react impulsively to daily movements. Instead, consider these actionable insights: Diversification: Spreading investments across different sectors and asset classes can help mitigate risk when one area underperforms. Long-Term Perspective: Focusing on long-term financial goals rather than short-term gains can help weather daily market swings. Stay Informed: Keeping abreast of economic news and company fundamentals provides context for market behavior. Consult Experts: Financial advisors can offer personalized guidance based on individual risk tolerance and objectives. Even small movements in major indexes can signal shifts that require attention, guiding future investment decisions within the dynamic US stock market. What’s Next for the US Stock Market? Looking ahead, investors will be keenly watching for further economic indicators and corporate announcements to gauge the direction of the US stock market. Upcoming inflation data, statements from the Federal Reserve, and quarterly earnings reports will likely provide more clarity. The interplay of these factors will continue to shape investor confidence and, consequently, the performance of the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Remaining informed and adaptive will be key to understanding the market’s trajectory. Conclusion: Wednesday’s mixed close in the US stock market highlights the intricate balance of forces influencing financial markets. While the Dow showed strength, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines, reflecting a nuanced economic landscape. 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