Bitcoin: Bad News from ETFs

The Bitcoin ETFs have once again delivered bad news. Yesterday, in fact, upon the reopening of traditional markets after the weekend, there were more than 350 million dollars in net outflows from these ETFs in just one day.

To see another daily outflow of such magnitude, one must go back to November 20, when it was even more than 900 million.

News on the Performance of Bitcoin ETFs

November 2025 was a decidedly negative month for Bitcoin ETFs.

In fact, not only were there more than $900 million in outflows on November 20, but on the 13th, they also exceeded $800 million. Additionally, two other days surpassed $400 million. However, starting from the 21st of the month, this difficult phase seemed to have halted, as daily net outflows never again exceeded even $200 million. Yesterday, however, fear returned.

The fact is that last week ended on Friday with a total net inflow of almost 50 million, although the day before there had been outflows of 77 million. Overall, last week saw nearly 290 million dollars in net inflows, so it really seemed that the difficult phase experienced in November was over.

However, yesterday the trend reversed.

The Causes Behind the News of the Bitcoin ETF Crash

It should be noted that ETFs are traded only on traditional stock exchanges, not on crypto exchanges, and only in fiat currency, not in stablecoins. Notably, the market is dominated by U.S. ETFs that are traded on U.S. exchanges in dollars.

In November, the primary concern was the minor liquidity crisis caused by the U.S. government shutdown, which, unintentionally and without fault, ended up forcibly draining over $150 billion.

Last week, a substantial $80 billion was reintroduced into the markets by the US government, leading to the belief that the minor liquidity crisis was nearing its end.

In fact, for example, the main U.S. stock indices have returned to their highs, with the S&P500 last week nearing the all-time highs of October 29. However, for Bitcoin, not only was there no significant rebound last week, but starting from Sunday, it has faced difficulties again.

Consider that, after dropping to $80,000 on November 21, last week it did rise above $94,000 for a few days, but remained far from the all-time high of $126,000 recorded on October 6. Furthermore, from Friday to yesterday, it fell from $92,000 to $85,000.

The difference with equities: Why does the current trend of Bitcoin’s price in dollars differ from that of American equities despite BTC ETFs being traded on the same exchanges?

This difference emerged starting from November 21. Until that point, the negative impact of the minor liquidity crisis caused by the shutdown was, in some respects, comparable.

To be honest, the shutdown ended on November 12, and already in the week of the 21st, the government had begun to release several tens of billions of dollars. In fact, the US stock markets reacted with a rebound, while BTC in that instance only managed a slight bounce that barely brought it back above $90,000.

Last week, with the $80 billion reintroduced into the market by the US government, US stock exchanges almost recovered all the losses from November, while BTCUSD didn’t even come close.

Trump’s Role

The fact is that, starting from mid-October, the price of Bitcoin strangely fell four times while gold and silver prices rose and the Dollar Index declined. In theory, with the DXY decreasing, BTCUSD should have behaved like silver and gold, and risen.

It is noteworthy that on all four occasions, the price of Trump’s memecoin began to decline a few days before the Dollar Index started to fall, and on all four occasions, the drop in BTC was similar to that of TRUMP.

Additionally, during 2025, there were two phases, lasting several weeks or months, during which Trumo’s approval rating in the USA declined. The second of these phases began at the end of October and concluded at the end of November.

All this suggests that somehow President Trump may have played a role in the difficulties that have arisen in the trend of Bitcoin’s price in dollars during 2025, particularly in recent weeks.

However, there is also another factor that makes this hypothesis even more concrete.

In fact, the trend of BTC’s decline from the highs of October 6th until today closely resembles, albeit in reverse, the boom trend at the end of 2024 that emerged precisely with Trump’s electoral victory. Not only do the timings appear almost identical, but the magnitude of the fluctuations is also compatible, albeit in the opposite direction.

It’s as if those who bought Bitcoin after Trump’s electoral victory, hoping that win would boost its value, are now selling from the moment the decline began following the all-time high.

It is noteworthy that in October not only did this decline begin, but a new phase of Trump’s loss of support in the USA also started.

If such a parallelism were correct, and it were to continue to exist, next week could reach its peak, only to start fading the following week. In other words, those selling because they are disappointed by Trump, after having bought at the end of 2024 riding the wave of enthusiasm towards him, might be about to run out of BTC to sell.