Macro Tailwinds Stack Up, Crypto Market Next Beneficiary of AI CapEx Cycle?

Key Insights

• Major macro tailwinds — including Fed rate cuts, the end of QT, and $700B+ in annual tech CapEx — strengthen the liquidity outlook for crypto market.
• Regulatory shifts, such as SEC deregulation efforts and an upcoming Trump-appointed Fed Chair, signal a potentially more crypto-friendly policy environment.
• Massive fiscal stimulus and strong S&P 500 earnings growth reinforce risk-on sentiment, creating conditions that could support renewed inflows into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and broader digital assets.

The crypto market faces a cascade of supportive macro forces in late 2025, from the Federal Reserve’s end to quantitative tightening on December 1 to surging AI-driven capital expenditures exceeding $700 billion annually.

This raises questions about whether digital assets will ride the next wave of tech innovation as equities bask in 13% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth.

Data compiled in early December shows the S&P 500 Information Technology sector’s capex-to-depreciation ratio has surged to about 1.94 – a two-decade high.

Bank of America research further finds that AI-related capital spending contributed roughly 62.5% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, noting “without AI, the US would be in a recession.”

What Are The Key Macro Tailwinds Impacting the Crypto Market

Surging Tech CapEx: Corporations are plowing historic sums into AI and data-center projects. The capex/depreciation ratio in U.S. tech stocks is near 1.94 – up 76% since 2021. This reflects an unprecedented investment cycle.

Reuters reported that AI-focused capex already accounts for “more than one-third” of recent U.S. GDP growth. Spending on physical data-center infrastructure alone is up roughly 4× from 2020 levels, while tech sector firms now account for roughly 45% of total S&P 500 capital expenditure – a larger share than even the dot-com era peak.

AI-Driven Growth: The AI boom is powering multiple industries. New data show that elevated investment in AI platforms,  from GPUs and servers to AI-specific software, is inflating earnings and GDP even as other sectors slow.

Morgan Stanley analysts forecast $2.9 trillion in global data-center capex through 2028 to support AI, with a funding gap on the order of $1.5 trillion.

This flood of spending has cushioned economic growth and is helping justify lofty valuations for “Magnificent 7” tech giants, which in turn influences broader market sentiment.

Monetary Easing & Policy Support: Central banks and regulators have begun tilting in crypto’s favor. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled rate cuts this cycle, moving away from its prior tightening bias.

At the same time, new legislation (e.g. the GENIUS Act for stablecoins) and clearer rules for crypto ETFs are drawing fresh capital into crypto markets.

A CF Benchmarks report notes that recent regulatory moves, including federal stablecoin oversight and SEC approvals for in-kind crypto ETF creations, have kicked off a new phase of inflows and eased institutional barriers.

Institutional Flows: Large-scale crypto investment vehicles are seeing record demand. For instance, combined inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs topped $10 billion in July (with $5.36 billion into Bitcoin and $4.94 billion into Ether).

This was the first month in history with over $10B of ETF crypto flows. State Street data similarly show the broader Bitcoin ETF ecosystem has grown 45% in 2025 to about $103 billion AUM. These figures underscore rising institutional interest in crypto as part of diversified portfolios.

Collectively, these forces have coincided with a booming crypto market. The global crypto market cap recently roughly doubled to about $4 trillion.

Stablecoins alone have swelled nearly 75% year-over-year to nearly $290 billion, reflecting wider use of blockchain-based payment rails and liquidity pools.

The U.S. presidential transition to a pro-crypto administration has added to the backdrop, with President Trump’s crypto-friendly administration coinciding with this surging market cap.

Crypto Market Poised to Benefit

Against this backdrop, many analysts see cryptocurrency assets as natural beneficiaries. In a market context where tech equities are fueled by AI, crypto often moves in tandem when risk appetite is high.

Notably, blockchains themselves can support AI innovation, for example by handling micropayments or data provenance for AI agents.

Venture reports note that on-chain protocols are emerging to serve “autonomous AI agents,” a space Gartner estimates could reach a $30 trillion economy by 2030. In other words, crypto and AI are converging, suggesting strong thematic demand.

The institutional flow data reinforce this. Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly driven by ETF flows and market-wide liquidity.

The CF Benchmarks review observes that August (which saw some profit taking) quickly gave way to renewed inflows in September as Fed easing and ETF approvals rekindled buying.

Even after crypto prices briefly dipped, investors rotated back toward Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure. At the same time, projects linked to AI and blockchain integration (such as decentralized identity and oracles) are drawing attention.

State Street notes that 60% of institutions now prefer crypto exposure via regulated vehicles, and the rise in spot ETF assets shows this trend unfolding.

In fact, one survey found that about 8% of Bitcoin is held by institutions, up from near zero a few years ago. Technical indicators also look constructive: Bitcoin has held major support ($85K–$90K in recent months) and Ether around $3,200, while on-chain metrics point to accumulating activity.

Importantly, the crypto market’s risk profile may be improving. Volatility of Bitcoin and Ether, while still elevated versus stocks, has trended down in recent years.

State Street data highlight that even after Bitcoin’s two-year crash of nearly 80%, the market rebounded in only about two years, a much faster recovery than seen in the late-1990s tech bubble. This suggests crypto market investors are more mature and stable, lending support during broader market advances.

Nonetheless, traders acknowledge risks. Some strategists warn the AI capex boom could overshoot true demand.

Others point out that crypto assets still face regulatory uncertainties (especially globally) and possible macro headwinds (tariffs or China’s tech slowdown).

The Financial Stability Board has flagged “significant gaps” in crypto market regulation worldwide even as markets double in size.

Digital Assets to Ride the Wave or Face the Hangover?

Balancing the data, the case for the crypto market as a beneficiary of the AI cycle is compelling. In the near term, the Fed’s pivot to easing, combined with new crypto infrastructure creates a friendly environment.

Blockchain networks stand ready to handle more institutional capital and to serve emerging AI-related use cases.

As one AI6Z State Of Crypto 2025 report concludes, secular growth themes like digital assets and AI may now drive markets, and “assets like Bitcoin may benefit from increased adoption as a hedge” in this climate.

In sum, the macro picture is stacking up in the crypto market’s favor. Investors should continue watching tech capex data and Fed signals: if AI spending remains robust and liquidity stays ample, crypto market could indeed enjoy another leg higher.

Of course, rigorous risk controls are warranted – but for now, crypto markets appear uniquely poised to ride this wave of AI-driven capital expenditure.