Why is it difficult for stablecoin summer to ignite Crypto enthusiasm?
Arthur's long article clearly sorted out the past and present of stablecoins - Amazon and Walmart explored the issuance of stablecoins, Visa's stock price fell, and the entire stablecoin track was very popular. But what surprised me was that although there were obvious signs of the popularity of stablecoins in Summer, the entire Crypto circle responded very coldly, and even funds flowed out of the US stock market to speculate on concept stocks. Why?
——Why is the Crypto Native narrative “indifferent” to the stablecoin craze?
1) This is very interesting. Looking back at the time when Trump issued the coin, everyone was excitedly anticipating the spillover effect of the presidential coin. Why is the crypto community "confused" when the stablecoin with real mass adoption potential comes?
In fact, Arthur gave the answer to this question: "Without the issuance channel, there is no stablecoin business." The core of the stablecoin business model is the issuance channel, and Arthur summarized three feasible channels - crypto exchanges, Web2 giants, and traditional banks. This seems to have little to do with the direction of most Crypto industry builds?
You see, Tether’s success is not due to its amazing technology, but to its grasp of rigid demand and channels. Even if Circle has more standardized technology, it still has to give 50% of its interest income to Coinbase in exchange for distribution channels. From this perspective, without a hard-core distribution channel, those projects that try to challenge USDT with “better technology” are basically daydreaming.
It is easier for retail investors to understand that stablecoins are too "boring" and there is no room for imagination of getting rich 10 times or 100 times, so the Crypto circle is naturally indifferent.
——Web2 giants are the real “troublemakers”
2) Arthur’s judgment on traditional banks is very sharp – “basically hopeless”. The 7x24 borderless US dollar system vs. the banking system with redundant personnel and bureaucratic processes, this is not a competition of the same magnitude at all. The decline of banks has given stablecoins a huge living space.
The Web2 giants such as Meta, X, and Google have real disruptive potential because they have their own user base and payment scenarios. When Amazon and Walmart began to explore stablecoins, it was not a simple business expansion, but a direct "feeding" of billions of mainstream users to the Crypto infrastructure.
In my opinion, this is the real value of the stablecoin Summer - not to bring short-term wealth opportunities to the Crypto circle, but to allow the Crypto infrastructure to quietly penetrate into the mainstream world.
When billions of web2 users begin to use stablecoins on a daily basis, the demand for infra in various tracks such as DeFi, DeAI, and GameFi will increase accordingly. This is a long-term growth buff that cannot be perceived in the short term but cannot be ignored.
——The “silent influence” behind the IPO boom
3) Of course, even if the summer is quiet, there will definitely be hype. Arthur reminded very well: Circle IPO is just the first shot, and there will be a lot of "imitators" rushing in later. Most of these projects do not have real distribution capabilities, but with the blessing of the stablecoin narrative, the market dream rate will be exaggerated.
But back to Arthur’s core judgment - projects without distribution channels have basically no hope. The key is that this part of the Summer expectations may have nothing to do with most retail investors, so they can just watch the show.
However, from another perspective, this wave of IPOs is essentially "popularizing" the value of crypto to Wall Street. When traditional investors begin to seriously study the stablecoin business model, this "silent" influence is the most worth thinking about.
In my opinion, Stablecoin Summer is the turning point when Crypto transforms from a "marginal innovation test field" to a "mainstream commercial alternative."
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