Insider knowledge speculations follow Polymarket whale's bet on Nobel Peace Prize

A Polymarket whale started trading with confidence on the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The position increased hours before Maria Corina Machado was officially announced as the winner. 

Polymarket once again seemed to front-run official news, as one trader made a confident bet on the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. One trader opened a position just hours before Maria Corina Machado was announced as the winner. 

The Polymarket trader, known as @dirtycup made their first and only bet on Machado emerging as the winner. The whale placed $68,117 on the position, while the market was quite far from resolving, as ‘Yes’ votes gradually grew their price. 

The whale started accruing ‘Yes’ tokens as low as $0.05, averaging upward for hours before the actual news. This approach suggested the trader may have bought the shares on insider information, aiming to average slowly and avoid pushing the price upward. The whale held until the market was resolved. 

The active betting started a day before the market was resolved, with an early uptick in the price of the ‘Yes’ token. Before that, few whales made strong bets on any of the potential winners. 

Polymarket whales boosted the Nobel Peace Prize pairs

In total, the prediction market on the winner had a volume of over $21M, boosted by the presence of a Donald Trump pair. The viral nature of the Peace Prize meant the whale had access to higher liquidity. 

There was one more user to accumulate ‘Yes’ shares – @betmoar. The account trolled other prediction markets, while also betting on Machado’s selection earlier, locking in $80,439.70 in total gains from the prediction pair. 

Yet another random whale, with a name suggesting degen gambling rather than insider knowledge, was also among the early buyers. User 67 41 was among the first to create a trend on ‘Yes’ tokens for Machado’s selection. Thus, the sudden trend in ‘Yes’ buying may be a self-fulfilling drive, as traders test any of the available positions for breaking out.

The second whale also had a spoofing strategy, buying ‘Yes’ shares for the much less probable win of Yulia Navalnaya. 

There is still no clear evidence of insider knowledge versus an educated guess. Kalshi, a competing prediction market, had similar odds, suggesting the crowd prediction was spot on even without insider information. 

Despite this, Polymarket is still scrutinized for its ability to point to outcomes ahead of official media. The app was among the first to announce the real outcome of last year’s US Presidential Elections. However, the ability of the crowd to predict events is still viewed with skepticism while checking for potential insider knowledge. 

Polymarket switches to smaller bets

Unlike the US election season, the hot markets on current news are much smaller. Polymarket now carries around 40K active wallets, similar to other peak periods. However, the size of individual bets is smaller. 

Currently, most prediction pairs invite average bets of less than $100. Even whales make under $100K for some of the high-profile pairs. As Cryptopolitan reported, Polymarket activity remained relatively high on expectations of an eventual airdrop.

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