As Johor heads to the polls, here’s a look at the key battles and issues to watch

PETALING JAYA, June 27 — Four years after the 2022 Johor state election delivered a landslide victory for Barisan Nasional (BN), Johor voters are set to return to the polls amid a markedly different political landscape and shifting electoral dynamics.

While BN — now part of the unity government coalition alongside Pakatan Harapan (PH) at the federal level — enters the election as the incumbent with a comfortable majority, the coalition has signalled that its partnership with PH will not extend to the state polls.

Since both sides will contest all 56 seats independently, attention will likely focus on several marginal and closely fought constituencies, many of which are expected to feature at least three-corner contests, similar to the 2022 state election.

Polling is set for July 11, with nominations on June 27 and early voting on July 7.

Who’s contesting?

Of the 56 seats, BN’s Umno will contest 37, followed by 15 seats for MCA and four seats for MIC.

BN previously won 40 seats, securing a two-thirds majority.

For PH, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) will contest 20 seats, followed by 19 seats for Parti Amanah Negara and 17 for DAP.

PH previously won 12 seats — 10 by DAP, one by Amanah, and one by PKR.

Apart from BN and PH, Perikatan Nasional (PN) has also announced plans to contest all 56 seats, with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) expected to field the most candidates within the coalition.

PN previously won three seats.

Other contenders include the Progressive Bloc, which comprises the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) and the Socialist Party of Malaysia (PSM), with Muda confirming four candidates.

Meanwhile, Parti Bersama Malaysia, led by former PKR leaders Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, will make its electoral debut after announcing plans to contest 15 seats — eight held by Umno, five by DAP, and one each from PKR and Muda.

In 2022, four-way contests made up the majority at 35 seats, followed by three-way contests at seven, five-way contests at eight, six-way contests at four and seven-way contests at two.

Seats in the spotlight

The Machap state seat is among several key constituencies to watch, with incumbent and caretaker menteri besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi expected to face a likely three-cornered contest.

Muda, which seeks to defend its sole state representative in the Puteri Wangsa seat, is also expected to be closely watched in a likely five-cornered contest with PH, BN, PN and Bersama.

PH, which is fielding former Education Minister Maszlee Malik as a candidate, seeks to reclaim the seat it previously ceded to Muda when the party was still a coalition partner.

Another seat to watch closely is Skudai, where incumbent Marina Ibrahim of DAP has announced her abrupt retirement from politics and will not defend her seat, amid expectations that local sentiment could narrow the party’s majority.

Marina, a first-term assemblywoman, is regarded as a grassroots and local favourite, but she was reportedly asked to move to the Malay-majority and Umno stronghold in the Tiram state seat despite concerns over her limited grassroots presence there.

Last but not least is Bukit Batu, where incumbent Arthur Chiong Sen Sern is expected to retain the seat he won by the narrowest margin in the previous state election — a majority of just 137 votes.

Who makes up the electorate?

According to the Election Commission, there are 2,725,926 registered voters in total as of June 2026.

According to the latest electoral roll, voters aged 30 to 39 form the largest group with 587,888 voters, followed by those aged 21 to 29 (544,657), 40 to 49 (492,922), and 50 to 59 (393,780).

The remainder consists of voters aged 60 to 69 (308,313), 70 to 79 (172,402), 18 to 20 (165,386), 80 to 89 (50,441), and 90 and above (12,137).

The data also showed a near-even gender split with 1,364,763 male voters (50.03 per cent) and 1,363,163 female voters (49.97 per cent).

Ordinary voters make up the vast majority of the electoral roll at 2,703,175, alongside 12,041 police personnel and their spouses, and 12,710 military personnel and their spouses.

In the last state election, more than half of the total registered voters — 54.92 per cent or 1,426,573 voters — turned out to vote.

Contentious issues

Beyond candidate line-ups and battleground seats, the campaign is also expected to be shaped by several key issues likely to dominate the campaign trail.

At the launch of Johor BN’s election machinery, Onn Hafiz declared that he would rather forgo political office than “sit at the same table” with DAP, insisting that BN would not cooperate with the party if granted a fresh mandate in Johor.

The remarks drew scrutiny because they appeared to conflict with the cooperation between BN and DAP at the federal level, although Johor BN has maintained that its political decisions are made independently.

Onn Hafiz also rejected claims that his remarks had alienated Chinese voters, urging the community to assess his administration based on its track record rather than what he described as opponents’ attempts to twist those remarks.

The decision to deploy diesel trains for the KTM Shuttle Selatan service is also expected to feature on the campaign trail following public concerns over the move, particularly regarding why locomotives are being used despite the line’s electrification.

In response, Transport Minister Anthony Loke explained the choice was based on a critical timeline and a pragmatic move to ensure commuters have immediate access to transport rather than facing years of waiting.

Recent tensions between the federal and Johor state governments, including disputes over the state’s revenue contributions and alleged financial leakages, are also expected to draw scrutiny during the campaign.

The issue has attracted attention after being linked to the Johor royal palace, although Prime Minister and PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has stressed that the state election should remain a contest between political parties and not involve the royal institution or Malay rulers.

Calling on political parties to “know their limit”, Anwar stressed the importance of maintaining good relations between the federal government and the country’s royal institution, while admonishing those who allegedly fuelled tensions by invoking the ruler’s name.