Futures point to a lower start for cash trading on the last day of the week, as tech stocks dragged global indexes lower following renewed selling in chipmakers, while a report that OpenAI could postpone plans to go public also weighed on sentiment. The volatility reflects a valuation test, profit‑taking and flow-driven positioning, according to Christian Stocker, equity strategist at UniCredit, who suggests it’s a “temporary correction within a still-intact long-term AI growth trend.” As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.1%, while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. In premarket trading, semiconductor names, including Micron and optical stocks were broadly lower following news of OpenAI’s IPO delay; the "chip paying" hyperscalers showing moderate gains as the equilibrium seems to shift away from chip stocks. A selloff in Korean chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a second trading suspension in Seoul within days. Oil resumed its slide, failing to lift stocks but offering a fillip to bonds. Bond yields declined further led by the front-end of the curve: 2y is down 3.5bp; USD is lower. Oil fell -2.74 this morning to $69.18. US economic data calendar includes May goods trade balance, retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am
In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Microsoft is the is a top gainer as investors rotate into software stocks from hardwar (Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.5%, Amazon unchanged, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -1%, Tesla -1.1%).
In other corporate news, EV maker Polestar will exit the US after the Commerce Department banned the company due to a rule prohibiting Chinese software in cars, according to the WSJ. And Volkswagen is looking to cut tens of thousands of additional jobs and may shutter factories in a push to be more competitive, Manager Magazin reported.
Markets are capping a volatile week in which shifting sentiment around the once-relentless tech trade whipsawed stocks, with traders parsing everything from spending plans to corporate earnings. Investors pulled money from US equities for the first time in three months, with record withdrawals from tech.
Friday’s bout of weakness came as price increases in products from Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. triggered fears about the staying power of chip demand. A New York Times report that OpenAI could delay its initial public offering until 2027 also brought into focus how volatility could affect the sector. In Japan, OpenAI backer SoftBank Group Corp. tumbled following the NYT report, sending the Nikkei 225 down 4.2%. The tech sector led declines in Europe as well, with the Stoxx 600 on course for its worst performance since the middle of May.
“Technology remains a crowded trade, positioning is relatively tight, and that makes the sector more sensitive to negative news flow or sharp moves in individual names,” said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management.
AI valuations relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have fallen to their lowest levels since the Iran war, with AI stocks now trading at just a 15% P/E premium to ex-AI stocks, notes Bloomberg. The case for the AI trade remains intact, but the risk of getting it wrong has risen considerably with leverage, crowding and dispersion in focus.
Investors say the roller-coaster week shows that while the case for the AI-trade is still strong, the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over. While there hasn’t been panic selling, the cracks are real, and extreme investor positioning means the easy days could be a thing of the past.
The most sensible strategy “is to maintain well-diversified portfolios across geographies, styles, sizes, companies, and sectors,” said David Manso, chief investment officer at CaixaBank AM. “In a couple of weeks, the earnings season will kick off, and leading indicators are pointing in the right direction. We expect corporate results to become a positive catalyst.”
Also in AI, the Pentagon has revised its doctrine on how the US military picks its targets in battle, opening the way for AI to make critical wartime decisions in the future.
In politics, New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board voted to freeze some apartment rents, handing Mayor Mamdani a major political victory. Commerce Secretary Lutnick intervened to delay the opening of a new bridge between the US and Canada and is pressing to renegotiate the deal for a larger share of toll revenue.
The Stoxx 600 is down by 0.6%, with energy and technology equities leading declines, while food beverage and personal care drug stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
Asian stocks resumed their decline after a brief reprieve the prior day, as concerns about the sustainability of recent tech gains weighed on sentiment. Trading in Asian stocks has remained volatile, with investors torn between whether the rally in technology shares is stretched or backed by confidence in continued AI-driven growth. In the end, tech stocks dragged Asia lower, with the Kospi falling 5.8% and the Nikkei 225 dropping 4.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 3.6%, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC weighing most on the gauge. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led declines. For the week, the index has fallen more than 4%, on track for its worst showing since early March. The selloff comes after Apple said it raised prices to offset cost hikes caused by an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, dragging supplier shares across the region lower. For some, it underscored just how vulnerable the chip rally — which has lifted benchmarks to repeated highs — has become.
“After recent performance, it’s not difficult to expect some consolidation,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee. Apple price hikes highlighted “memory shortage impact on consumer electronics prices and part of the inflation narrative.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down by 0.1% and the euro back to testing $1.14, while sterling has climbed back above $1.32. The Norwegian krone is underperforming among major currencies on the slide in oil prices.
In rates, a falling oil price is lifting short-end bonds across Europe and the US, with a pullback in bets on central bank rate hikes. US two-year yields falling by four basis points and outperforming moves in the same direction in Europe and the UK.
treasury futures hold gains led by front-end tenors, extending Thursday’s yield-curve steepening move, as oil prices resume their slide toward pre-war levels and short-term rate products price in less Fed tightening in the coming months. 2-year yields are lower by 3bp-4bp, long-end tenors by less than 1bp, steepening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp, 5s30s by 3bp; 10-year, down 2bp near 4.375%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by around 1bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. At least two borrowers stood down Thursday as three priced a combined $5.4 billion, paying about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3 times oversubscribed.
In commodities, Brent is sliding by nearly 4% and below $73/barrel and WTI futures are sinking toward $69/barrel and headed for biggest weekly drop in a month after transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated; Gold little changed but holding above $4,000/oz.
US economic data calendar includes May advance goods trade balance, May retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am
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A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were pressured following the choppy performance stateside, where markets were indecisive amid two-way trade in tech, a recent data deluge and a rebound in oil. The overnight deterioration in risk sentiment coincided with renewed selling in tech after Apple raised prices of some products by nearly 20% and with OpenAI leaning towards delaying its IPO until next year. ASX 200 was rangebound with the index cushioned as the underperformance in tech, telecoms and healthcare was partially offset by resilience in some defensive stocks. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses as tech stocks dominated the list of worst performers, with SoftBank down by a double-digit percentage owing to its large exposure to AI and semiconductors. KOSPI remained volatile with the slump triggering a sidecar and eventual circuit breaker alongside notable declines in both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the sell-off across the region amid the tech rout
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European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) are entirely in the red in the last session of the week, driven by another day of losses in South Korea (SK Hynix -8.4%, Samsung -5.3%). Some analysts are citing Apple's price hikes on products due to memory chip shortages as a catalyst for the recent sell-off, raising concerns that rising component costs could curb demand for devices. An analyst at Javelin Wealth Management also said the recent gains for chipmakers could come at the expense of product manufacturers. The losses in South Korean giants have weighed on European chip names (Infineon -3.1%, ASML -1.0%) and indices composed of technology companies (DAX 40 -0.8%, AEX -0.6%). European sectors highlight a negative bias. Optimised Personal Care (+0.8%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.6%) and Utilities top the sector pile. Energy (-1.5%) is the underperformer again, with Technology (-1.4%) and Financial Services (-1.1%) also lagging.
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DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I can pretty much guarantee the imminent end of the extreme record-breaking heatwave currently engulfing most of Europe, and a very low chance it will ever return. Last night my wife spent a small fortune ordering industrial fans for everyone's bedrooms. So stand by for the next ice-age.
There seems to be a mini ice-age in Asia this morning with tech again selling off. The KOSPI is slumping -8.01% as I type with the Nikkei -4.54% lower. SoftBank is around -14% lower after the NYT suggested that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027. This follows a sharp decline for the Magnificent 7 (-2.54%) yesterday. The tech mega cap index moved deeper into correction territory after the news that Apple (-6.12%) would be raising the price of its Macs and iPads. That came in response to demand surges for memory and storage, but the news played into broader concerns that AI data centres were generating inflationary pressures. Marion and Camilla in my team wrote an excellent piece last week looking at the recent parabolic increase in memory prices, and its potential macro impact. Apple's announcement yesterday emphasizes some of these themes. See it on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here.
Elsewhere in Asia the Shanghai Comp is -2.14% lower with the Hang Seng -1.87%. S&P 500 (-0.71%), NASDAQ (-1.45%) and European Stoxx (-0.79%) futures are also notably lower. In terms of data, headline and core core Tokyo CPI were both a tenth higher than expected at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively.
Ahead of that, markets had actually generally put in a decent performance yesterday amid encouraging US data even as oil prices rebounded from 3-month lows to post their biggest rise in three weeks. Most notably, the PCE inflation data for May (the Fed’s target measure) came in on the softer side, which pushed back a bit against the building narrative towards Fed rate hikes in recent weeks. Indeed, headline PCE was only up +0.4% on the month (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was at a softer +0.3% on the month as expected.
That PCE release helped markets to dial back expectations of Fed rate hikes. For instance, the amount of hikes priced by December fell to 34bps by the close, down -1.5bps on the day. So there was growing speculation again that the Fed might not need to hike at all this year, even as Fed officials remain cautious on the inflation outlook. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that core inflation is "still well too high and it's trending the wrong way", while New York Fed President Williams called inflation “unquestionably elevated”. Nonetheless, front-end Treasury yields declined, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) down to 4.12%, its lowest since last week’s Fed meeting, while the 10yr yield (+0.1bps) was little changed at 4.39%. They are down another -3.3bps and -2.2bps respectively this morning.
Whilst the PCE release was the main focus, several other US releases added to the optimism around the economy. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to 215k over the week ending June 20 (vs. 225k expected), so the labour market still appeared in decent shape. Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q1 GDP was also revised up half a point to an annualised rate of +2.1%, suggesting things were on a stronger footing than thought earlier this year.
That backdrop of strong data and more dovish Fed pricing meant most US stocks advanced even with some tech wobbles. However, the S&P 500 (-0.01%) ended up narrowly posting a fourth consecutive loss, as the tech sell-off we mentioned at the top dragged. It wasn't all bad news for tech as the Philly Semiconductor index rose +3.59%, with Micron surging +15.7% after Wednesday night's results. And more broadly, both the equal-weighted S&P (+0.67%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.71%) had solid days.
The market mood was also partially disrupted by news that a cargo ship was hit by unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, which also followed reports of some ships turning around while attempting to cross the strait. So that led to some renewed uncertainty over the normalization of shipping, after the number of vessels going through the strait had risen in recent days. Oil prices moved higher following the incident. Brent crude rose +2.06% to $75.26/bbl, despite have traded as low as $72.06/bbl earlier in the session, which was below its $72.48/bbl level on February 27, the day before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This morning Brent is back down -1.95% to $73.79 as I type.
Over in Europe, investors continued to price out the chance of further ECB rate hikes. In fact, the number of hikes priced by the December meeting fell to just 26bps by the close, down -3.2bps on the day. So that helped to push the STOXX 600 (+0.80%) to a record high by the close, alongside gains for the DAX (+1.03%), the CAC 40 (+0.55%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.65%). A large amount of that will likely reverse at the open this morning with the overnight sell-off. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, the 10yr bund yield (-0.8bps) hit a 3-month low of 2.85%, alongside a marginal rise for yields on 10yr OATs (+0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps).
Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the advance goods trade balance for May, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for June. We’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for May and hear from the Fed’s Kashkari and the ECB’s Vujcic.


