A $2.1B Crypto Expiring Event Is Happening Today – How Will Markets Move?

Around 30,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, June 19, with a notional value of roughly $1.9 billion. This event is slightly smaller than last week’s and still not enough to impact spot markets.

Crypto markets gained slightly before retreating in the second half of the week, with total capitalization hovering around the $2.25 trillion level and $70 billion leaving the space since Monday.

A signed peace deal between the US and Iran has not improved sentiment, while the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, left rates unchanged as expected on Wednesday, but hikes could be on the cards if inflation continues to climb.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.78, meaning that sellers of long (call) contracts slightly outweigh short (put) contract sellers. Max pain is around $65,000, which is around $2,000 higher than current spot prices, so many will be at a loss on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $80,000 strike price on Deribit, with $1.6 billion, but short sellers still have $1.3 billion in OI at $60,000. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been climbing over the past week, and is at $36 billion, according to Coinglass.

Derivatives provider Greeks Live said this week that the $60,000 strike functions as a “critical threshold.”

Meanwhile, the $70,000 to $82,000 levels act as a “positive gamma range” where activity is expected to provide a “natural dampening effect on volatility.”

In addition to today’s tranche of Bitcoin options, around 137,600 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $234 million, max pain at $1,725, and a put/call ratio of 1.0. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $6 billion.

This brings the total crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.1 billion, which is a relatively small expiry event.

Spot Market Outlook

Crypto markets are in the red this Friday morning in Asia, with total capitalization tanking 2.4%. Bitcoin has fallen from its intraday high of $64,500 to around $62,800 at the time of writing, and another retest of the lows looks likely as momentum wanes.

Ethereum has lost 3% on the day and is about to fall below $1,700 again as it trades near its lowest levels for over a year. Altcoins suffering heavier losses include Hyperliquid, Zcash, Sui, and Avalanche.

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