Cardano Price Falls Into Third Wave Territory as Foundation Defends Its Ground

Cardano price slides into what analysts call a third Elliott Wave decline while Frederic Gregaard says the network keeps building. ADA holders are watching closely.

The price chart was already telling a story before anyone said anything. ADA dropped to around $0.162 on the 4-hour chart, and the Cardano pattern traders had been tracking for weeks finally had a name attached to it.

Crypto analyst More Crypto Online, on X, posted the ADA/USD chart Thursday and said the move was not a surprise. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the current Cardano decline reads as a third wave to the downside. Wave 3 is completing near $0.162, with projected targets around $0.130 before any meaningful recovery.

Source: More Crypto Online via X

Cardano Elliott Wave Count Points to More Pain Before Recovery

Third waves in Elliott Wave theory tend to be the most extended and the most punishing for holders of long positions. The typical structure implies momentum does not reverse at wave 3. It waits for wave 5.

Fib retracement levels on the ADA chart put potential support at $0.1944, $0.1851, and $0.1742. Those are the zones Cardano traders are watching for any bounce attempt. The analyst’s wave 5 projection reaches as low as $0.088, a level ADA has not seen in years.

The broader DeFi TVL trends have not been helping Cardano’s case either. Ethereum’s TVL dominance near multi-year lows has pulled attention toward chains with higher on-chain activity, leaving ADA price fundamentals exposed to the downside.

Cardano CEO Says Fundamentals Are Not What the Chart Shows

While the ADA price was printing lower, Cardano Foundation CEO Frederic Gregaard published a detailed post Thursday taking a different view entirely. Short-term market sentiment, he wrote on X, is not the measure of whether a network is working.

As Gregaard posted on X, Cardano today runs decentralized governance at scale through CIP-1694 and on-chain voting. The Cardano governance vote framework that drew controversy earlier this year is now the same infrastructure he is pointing to as proof the network is operating as designed.

He cited RWA tokenization landing on the London Stock Exchange. A project covering 20,000 farmers in India combining satellite data with digital identity. DeFi protocols including Bifrost, Pogun, and Sundial. Everything verifiable and auditable on-chain, he said. The Cardano fundamentals argument, at least on paper, has not gotten shorter.

When Stablecoin Growth and ADA Price Move in Opposite Directions

Gregaard’s list included expanding Cardano DeFi and digital identity infrastructure across multiple regions. Veridian is among the projects pushing into identity. The stablecoin side of the Cardano picture is also moving, with stablecoin adoption across blockchain networks picking up institutional momentum globally.

Whether any of that infrastructure eventually translates to ADA price recovery is the question the Cardano community has been sitting with for a long time. Gregaard did not make a price argument Thursday. He made a builder’s argument. Those two things have been running parallel for a while now.

The Cardano crash read on the charts and the governance and DeFi build-out happening on-chain are not mutually exclusive. They are just not the same conversation. Per the filings, as it were, both are happening at once.

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