a16z, one of the leading venture capital firms in the Web3 space, just picked a side in the biggest regulatory fight in crypto right now – and it’s not the states.
The venture firm filed a formal letter backing the CFTC against state regulators trying to ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Their argument: state crackdowns directly conflict with federal law and block ordinary users from accessing legitimate markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the largest prediction markets, are under attack from state regulators calling them unlicensed gambling.
What this means for the industry:
• The federal vs. state jurisdiction battle is escalating fast – the CFTC has already sued Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin
• Monthly trading volume on prediction markets hit $25.7 billion in March 2026, with 80%+ of users being retail traders
• Polymarket is actively in talks with the CFTC to re-enter the U.S market after a 2022 ban
The real question isn’t whether prediction markets will survive – it’s who gets to regulate them. a16z is betting the answer is Washington, not state capitals.
Worth watching closely as this heads toward the Supreme Court.
Stay tuned to BitKE for deeper insights into the global crypto regulatory space.
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