AAVE whale dumps $3M at 38% loss – Is $90 support at risk?

Following the KelpDAO hack, Aave [AAVE] came under heavy selling pressure, dropping from $118 to a low of $86 after breaching both $100 and $90. Since then, the token has rebounded slightly, reclaiming $90.

At press time, AAVE was trading at $95, up 4.65% on the daily charts.  Despite signs of recovery, market sentiment remains cautious, with many participants continuing to exit their positions.

AAVE whales sell at a loss!

AAVE whale activity had plummeted to historical lows as the altcoin whales were taking a break from the market. 

Spot Average Order Size data from CryptoQuant showed no large whale orders between January and the 17th of April, the date of the hack. 

However, after KelpDAO was exploited, whales rushed into the market, most likely to close their positions. The metric showed increased whale orders between the $114 and $90 price levels. 

Amid this whale resurgence, even dormant ones woke up and started to sell. Arkham data showed that a whale who had held AAVE for over a year transferred 32,415 AAVE, worth $3.01 million, to Binance.

After selling the holdings during a market dip, the whale incurred a 38% loss, or $1.85 million. Often, when whales offload during a period of weakness, it reflects a lack of confidence in the market. 

Sell-side activity hits a 6-month high

Besides the whale’s comeback, sell-side activity has intensified among all market participants. Looking at exchange activity, AAVE’s Netflow has remained positive for the past five days.

On the 20th of April, Exchange Netflow skyrocketed to early February levels, hitting 57k AAVE before falling to 4.5k at press time.

As a result, the Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) climbed to levels not seen since November 2025. Such extreme levels imply that deposits have recently outpaced outflows.

Thus, the market has recorded more sellers than buyers. Typically, such a market setup has preceded a weakened market structure and stronger downside momentum. In fact, momentum indicators have shown this shift. The altcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from 64 to 44, making a bearish crossover.

A drop below 50 for this indicator confirmed the rising seller dominance in the market. Usually, when RSI drops to such levels while sellers dominate, prices tend to decline.

Supporting this outlook, AAVE’s Futures Grand Trend (FGT) signaled a potential slip, suggesting the token could breach $90 support, with $85 as the next downside target.

However, if the recovery witnessed over the last 24 hours holds, AAVE could bounce back, reclaim $100, and eye $108.

Final Summary

• A dormant AAVE whale returned after one year, sold 32,415 AAVE worth $3.01 million, and took a $1.85 million loss.
• AAVE faced strong selling pressure, with the Exchange Supply Ratio hitting a 6-month high.