Tehran rallies bolster regime support amid US-Israeli tensions

Large pro-government rallies in Tehran signal domestic support for the regime during ongoing conflict. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 are at 3% YES, unchanged from yesterday but down from 6% a week ago.

The Tehran rallies, driven by anger over recent US-Israeli airstrikes, affect several markets. The Iran leadership status market points to a decreased likelihood of a leadership change by the end of 2026. The Reza Pahlavi entry into Iran market shows a lower probability of his return, with odds at 4.5% for June 30 and 13.5% for December 31, both up slightly over the past 24 hours.

The regime-fall market has $471,696 in daily face value with $13,145 in actual USDC traded. It takes $15,683 to move the price 5 percentage points, which points to a stable order book relative to the high face value. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was zero, consistent with traders holding firm on current odds.

The rallies function as a consolidation of regime support. With public sentiment behind the government, the probability of a regime fall by May 31 is low. At 3¢, buying YES shares offers a 33x potential payout, but without triggers like IRGC defections or leadership fractures, the bet is a long shot.

Watch for changes in Iran’s internal dynamics, particularly any statement from the Assembly of Experts or a shift in US diplomatic tactics, either of which could move these odds.

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