Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz, European gas prices jump 10%

European gas prices jumped nearly 10% after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, pushing the WTI Crude Oil $160 April target market to 1.4% YES.

Iran’s action disrupts a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of world oil flows. The WTI Crude Oil market sits at 1.4% YES, unchanged from yesterday. The biggest single move was a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, driven by the re-closure news. But $1,655 is needed to move the odds by 5 points, so the market is thin.

The re-closure signals a new phase of escalation in the conflict involving Iran, the US, and Gulf states. Traders are hedging against oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market reflects this directly, with the likelihood of normalizing traffic flows by end of April dropping significantly.

Trading volumes in these markets are modest. Total USDC traded is just $2,814 across all sub-markets. The thin order book means large trades can swing prices easily, as the 25-point movement from a single order already demonstrated.

A YES share priced at 1.4¢ pays $1 if WTI hits $160, a 71.4x return. That payout requires sustained geopolitical tension or further escalation beyond current levels.

Watch for official statements from the US and Iran, any OPEC+ updates, or military developments in the Gulf. Trump’s next move regarding Iranian ports or any declaration from Iran’s Foreign Ministry could shift these odds fast.

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