3-time Trump voting North Carolina could elect a Dem thanks to president: data analyst

President Donald Trump is leading the Democrats to victory in North Carolina, CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported on Tuesday.

While it's election day in states like Georgia and Wisconsin, North Carolina is growing increasingly likely to flip a U.S. Senate seat due to Trump's unpopular war with Iran.

Analysts expect the House of Representatives to flip to Democratic Control, but there are now growing reports that Republicans might lose the Senate as well.

"So you want to talk about a state that Donald Trump has won three times? Three times. But it looks to me that Roy Cooper, the former governor of the great state of North Carolina, has a real shot here," Enten said of the Democratic candidate running for U.S. Senate.

Outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican, announced last year that he would retire at the end of his term, leaving the seat open for the popular governor to swoop in.

Citing prediction markets, Enten said that in October, Cooper was looking good with a 63 percent likelihood he would win. The probability that Cooper will win has now increased to 86 percent. Trump won the seat in 2024 by three points.

"So Donald Trump has won North Carolina three times," Enten recalled.

"In the spring of 2025, Donald Trump was three points underwater overall among independents. He was 18 points underwater. Look at how low he has fallen now among independents; he's 42 points underwater," Enten continued. "And overall, he's 15 points underwater right now. North Carolina is not a pink state. It is much more of a purple, dare I say, light blue state, with how unpopular Donald Trump is dragging down Republicans. And he may, in fact, push Roy Cooper into the Senate."

Net approval for the war in North Carolina is -19, but among Independents it's -41 points.

"This war, if it continues on, will continue to drag Republican candidates down across the political map," Enten warned.pre

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