Delta (DAL) Stock Q1 Earnings: What Analysts Expect on Wednesday

TLDR

• Delta (DAL) reports Q1 earnings Wednesday morning, with revenue expected to grow 7.5% year on year
• EPS estimate for Q1 is $0.58, with revenue forecast at $14.94B
• Morgan Stanley lowered numbers across the board ahead of the report
• Jet fuel costs and summer booking guidance will be key focal points for investors
• Options markets are pricing in a 7% price swing post-earnings

Delta Air Lines kicks off airline earnings season on Wednesday, and all eyes are on how the carrier handles rising fuel and labor costs heading into the busy summer period.

Delta Air Lines, Inc., DAL

The market is expecting Q1 revenue of $14.94B and EPS of $0.58. That would represent year-on-year revenue growth of 7.5%, a step up from the 2.1% growth posted in the same quarter last year.

Delta beat on both revenue and EPS last quarter, reporting $16B in revenue, up 2.9% year on year. EPS guidance for the following quarter came in below expectations, though, leaving some caution on the table.

Analysts covering Delta have largely held their estimates steady over the past 30 days. Delta has a track record of beating Wall Street expectations, which will keep pressure on the print.

Morgan Stanley moved ahead of the report by cutting numbers across the sector. The firm expects full-year 2026 guidance to either be pulled entirely or revised to wide ranges, depending on fuel cost assumptions.

Analyst Ravi Shanker flagged demand resilience over the summer as a key variable. He also pointed out that capacity cuts during slower periods, particularly Q3, look increasingly likely.

Jet Fuel in Focus

Delta’s ownership of the Trainer refinery gives it a potential edge in managing fuel costs that rivals don’t have. That advantage could matter a lot given the recent spike in jet fuel prices.

Pricing assumptions and fuel availability updates will be closely watched on the earnings call. The near-term trajectory on fuel remains uncertain, making any commentary from management especially valuable.

Delta previously guided for 5% to 7% revenue growth for the full year, alongside roughly 20% earnings expansion. Any shift in that outlook will move the stock.

What Else Investors Are Watching

Corporate travel trends and summer booking strength are the other big talking points heading into Wednesday. Free cash flow commentary will also be on the radar.

Jefferies noted that Delta’s early print tends to set the tone for the rest of the sector, and that dynamic feels especially true this quarter given the macro uncertainty.

The airline sector entered Q4 earnings on the back of strong demand trends that carried into mid-quarter updates in March. Whether that holds through summer is the open question.

Delta is up 10.2% over the past month, outpacing peers in the consumer discretionary segment, which are down 1.1% on average over the same stretch.

Options pricing implies a 7% move in either direction following Wednesday’s release.

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