Figure Technology (FIGR) Stock Could Double, Says Bernstein — Here’s Why

TLDR

• Bernstein rates Figure Technology (FIGR) “Outperform” with a $67 price target, nearly double its current ~$32 price.
• Figure originated $1.2 billion in loans in March, up 33% month-over-month — the first time monthly volumes topped $1 billion.
• Q1 originations hit $2.9 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, putting annualized volume at ~$12 billion.
• FIGR has dropped over 20% year-to-date despite improving operating performance.
• Bernstein values Figure at ~25x projected 2027 EBITDA, above typical digital asset company multiples.

Figure Technology (FIGR) has caught the attention of Bernstein analysts, who published a bullish report Monday calling the stock undervalued at current levels.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock, FIGR

Bernstein assigned an “Outperform” rating and a $67 price target — nearly double where the stock is trading right now at around $32.

The case for Figure rests on its lending numbers, which have been hard to ignore. In March, the company originated $1.2 billion in loans. That’s a 33% jump from February and the first time monthly volumes have crossed the $1 billion mark.

Q1 as a whole came in at $2.9 billion in originations, more than double what the company posted in the same period last year. That kind of growth, during what is typically a slow season for HELOC demand, stood out to analysts.

Figure is now tracking around $12 billion in annualized loan volume.

The company’s core product is home equity lines of credit, which let homeowners borrow against their property at rates generally lower than unsecured loans. Figure runs these through the Provenance blockchain, which it says cuts 117 basis points per loan compared to traditional lenders.

Blockchain Infrastructure at the Core

That blockchain infrastructure is central to Bernstein’s thesis. Figure isn’t just a lender — it operates a tokenized credit marketplace and has rolled out a stablecoin called YLDS as part of its broader financial platform.

Bernstein values the company at roughly 25 times projected 2027 EBITDA. That sits above where most digital asset companies trade, which analysts say reflects Figure’s dual identity as both a tokenization platform and a functioning lending business.

Growth has been supported by rising consumer loan demand and an expanding partner network, according to the report.

Stock Down 20% Despite the Numbers

The operating story and the stock price tell two different stories right now. FIGR has fallen more than 20% year-to-date, weighed down by volatility across digital asset-linked names.

The stock has also struggled to build on its Nasdaq debut from last September, which valued the company at close to $800 million.

Q4 earnings showed revenue and earnings growth, but profits came in below expectations — a detail that hasn’t been forgotten by the market.

Bernstein flags some real risks. HELOC demand is sensitive to mortgage refinancing trends, meaning rate moves can shift the picture quickly. The private credit market, which is a key part of Figure’s growth strategy, has also shown signs of pressure.

Q1 originations of $2.9 billion represent the company’s strongest quarter on record.

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