XRP (XRP) Price Analysis: $3 Billion in Liquidations Looming — Will Shorts Get Squeezed?

Key Takeaways

• XRP hovered around $1.339, recovering from critical support between $1.28 and $1.29
• Key resistance zone positioned at $1.34–$1.35; breakthrough could target $1.45
• Open interest surged to $951 million, marking a two-week peak, alongside negative funding rates
• Monday’s 3% uptick stemmed from U.S.-Iran ceasefire headlines rather than Ripple-specific developments
• XRP continues trading within a descending channel established since mid-2025

XRP posted approximately 3% gains on Monday, hovering near the $1.339–$1.35 level as the broader cryptocurrency market received a boost from reports of potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. During the same trading session, Bitcoin traded around $69,870 while Ethereum sat near $2,144. Although XRP underperformed both major cryptocurrencies, it still recorded a respectable daily performance.

The upward momentum originated from the $1.28–$1.29 demand area, where trading volume surged significantly during the rebound. This purchasing pressure enabled XRP to recapture the $1.30–$1.32 range before testing resistance levels.

Cryptocurrency market analyst CW observed that XRP has reentered the red supply zone spanning $1.34 to $1.355. This price region has previously served as a ceiling and continues to represent the primary near-term obstacle.

Should buyers manage to secure a close above this zone, the subsequent level of interest becomes $1.42. Further upward movement encounters a supply zone ranging from $1.47 to $1.50, placing $1.45 as a realistic upside objective.

Regarding downside risk, $1.31–$1.32 represents the closest support level. Beneath that, $1.28 stands as the more significant foundation. A decline below that threshold would return XRP to a broader consolidation pattern.

Derivatives Market Signals

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn documented that open interest climbed from $892 million to $951 million as price dipped below $1.31—representing the highest level observed in more than two weeks. Funding rates shifted into negative territory, reaching -0.0010, indicating short traders were compensating long traders. This dynamic suggests substantial bearish positioning within the derivatives marketplace.

Liquidation concentrations above the current price level total $3.055 billion, with $318.57 million positioned near $1.356. Should XRP advance into that territory, short positions could encounter significant pressure, potentially catalyzing an accelerated movement through resistance.

Santiment revealed that the average active XRP Ledger wallet over the previous twelve months has declined 41% on holdings. The analytics platform highlighted this as the lowest MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) measurement for XRP since the FTX implosion in November 2022, indicating market participants face substantial unrealized losses.

Monday’s price advancement showed minimal connection to Ripple-related announcements. Iran dismissed Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal shortly after its introduction, constraining any prolonged risk-appetite surge. Robert Pavlik from Dakota Wealth explained to Reuters: “Until we have some kind of concrete agreement it’s hard to be fully committed to investing.”

Upcoming Economic Events

The U.S. economic calendar presents a packed schedule this week. Federal Reserve meeting minutes release Wednesday, PCE inflation metrics arrive Thursday, and Consumer Price Index figures publish Friday. Wells Fargo eliminated its 2026 rate reduction forecast on Monday; Citigroup postponed its own timeline following robust employment data.

Ripple introduced treasury management software featuring XRP balance monitoring on April 1, while CME incorporated XRP futures options on its CFTC-regulated exchange. Notwithstanding these infrastructure developments, macroeconomic narratives remained the dominant price catalyst on Monday.

XRP remains confined within a descending channel originating from its July 2025 high near $3.60, with unsuccessful breakout attempts documented at $3.18, $3.10, $2.41, and $1.60 throughout that period.

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