Bitcoin (BTC) Could Sink to $60K Before Surging to $250K, Arthur Hayes Predicts

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin declined roughly 1.5% over the past week while the S&P 500 plummeted approximately 10% in just two days
• Charles Schwab announces plans to offer direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading by H1 2026
• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin may drop under $60,000 before climbing to $250,000
• A technical analyst projects potential Bitcoin collapse to $12,000–$13,000 range by mid-2027
• Historical data reveals Bitcoin typically outperforms both gold and S&P 500 within 60 days following major crises

Bitcoin experienced significantly less volatility than traditional equities this past week. As the S&P 500 tumbled approximately 10% over a two-day period, Bitcoin’s decline stayed modest at around 1.5%. This divergence has prompted some market participants to reassess cryptocurrency’s role in their portfolios.

The equity selloff was triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcements, which sent shockwaves through international financial markets. Throughout the turbulence, Bitcoin maintained support above the $66,000 level, later climbing back toward $67,300 even as stock indices continued their descent.

Charles Schwab, overseeing approximately $12 trillion in client assets, revealed plans to introduce direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The forthcoming “Schwab Crypto” account is slated to debut during the first six months of 2026.

This offering differs fundamentally from exchange-traded fund products. Users will gain the ability to manage cryptocurrency holdings alongside their traditional stock and bond portfolios within a single unified account.

Hayes Advises Caution Until Fed Action

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and serves as Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, expressed a cautious stance on current market conditions. During an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, he stated he wouldn’t allocate his final investment dollar to Bitcoin at present.

His rationale centers on the Federal Reserve’s current liquidity stance. Hayes contends that tariff policies will ultimately generate sufficient voter backlash to force the United States toward implementing capital controls as an alternative approach.

Such capital controls, according to his analysis, would serve as a significant driver for Bitcoin adoption. He maintains ambitious long-term price projections ranging from $250,000 to $750,000 for Bitcoin before this market cycle concludes.

However, he cautioned that an extended military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran might temporarily drive Bitcoin beneath the $60,000 threshold. Hayes additionally identified artificial intelligence-driven workforce displacement as another risk factor that could trigger a deflationary credit contraction.

Historical Performance Analysis

Analysis conducted by Mercado Bitcoin examined the 60-day aftermath of significant global disruptions, encompassing previous tariff wars and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Their findings indicate Bitcoin repeatedly delivered superior returns compared to both gold and the S&P 500 during these recovery windows.

Bitcoin typically experiences initial selling pressure during crisis events as market participants shift toward cash positions. Yet historical patterns demonstrate it has recovered more rapidly and aggressively than conventional asset classes.

Not all market observers anticipate an imminent price floor. A technical analyst operating under the pseudonym King of the Charts anticipates Bitcoin establishing a bottom between $51,000 and $53,000, followed by an 80% to 90% correction down to approximately $12,000 by the middle of 2027.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained anchored in “Extreme Fear” territory for multiple weeks, with measurements approaching single-digit levels.

In a separate conversation with David Lin, Hayes emphasized that straightforward Bitcoin acquisition represents the optimal strategy for protecting against fiat currency devaluation, particularly given the increasing complexity of equity selection.

The Schwab cryptocurrency platform remains on schedule for its first-half 2026 launch.

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