MEXC Alpha Trader Weekly: BTC Holds Above $80K Amid Crypto Policy Momentum and ETF Inflows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net inflows for a sixth consecutive week, marking the longest streak of sustained inflows since August 2025, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $3.4 billion. Although capital momentum softened during the latter half of the week, demand from ETF investors seeking Bitcoin exposure through regulated channels continued to recover noticeably. This week, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, stated in an interview with Fox News that Bitcoin serves as “a hedge against currency debasement,” while emphasizing that investors “do not need to trade it every day.” His remarks further reinforced the growing stance among major asset managers that Bitcoin should be viewed as a strategic allocation asset.

On the regulatory front, the market reached a historic milestone. The United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs has officially scheduled a committee vote on the CLARITY Act for May 14 at 10:30 AM ET. This marks the first time in U.S. congressional history that a comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure bill has advanced to a formal committee vote. On May 12, the committee publicly released a 309-page draft of the legislation, which retains legal protections for DeFi developers. Data from Polymarket indicates that traders currently estimate a roughly 75% probability that the bill will officially become law before the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained volatile. On May 6, expectations surrounding renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations triggered a sharp decline in global oil prices, with WTI crude falling more than 11% intraday. However, by May 12, oil prices rebounded toward the $98 level after Donald Trump warned that the ceasefire agreement was “hanging by a thread,” while Iran stated that the U.S. proposal was “completely unacceptable,” reigniting geopolitical risk premiums across energy markets.

On the macro front, the U.S. April CPI report released on May 12 emerged as the market’s biggest variable. Economists expect inflation to rise to 3.7%, which would mark the highest reading since the autumn of 2023. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could revive expectations for further rate hikes and place pressure on risk assets. Conversely, softer inflation data could create room for Bitcoin to extend its upward breakout. U.S. equities continued their strong performance during the week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording a sixth consecutive week of gains while reaching new all-time highs. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,398.93, up 2.33%, while the Nasdaq finished at 26,247.08, gaining 4.51% for the week. Ongoing enthusiasm surrounding AI-related narratives and residual momentum from earnings season continued to support bullish sentiment.

I. Key Developments in the Crypto Market

1. Institutional Capital: Six Consecutive Weeks of Net Inflows, Increasing Concentration Among Major Players

Spot Bitcoin ETFs maintained the strong buying momentum that began in late April. During the reporting period (May 6–12), overall capital flows displayed a “strong early week, weaker late week” pattern, alongside increasingly clear structural divergence. According to data from SoSoValue and multiple market data providers, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of approximately $623 million during the week of May 4–8 alone. From a daily flow perspective, ETF inflows remained robust on May 6. However, as Bitcoin prices softened and short-term geopolitical concerns temporarily eased, some products began experiencing profit-taking pressure during the latter half of the week. On May 8, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $278 million in single-day net outflows, followed by another $146 million in outflows on May 9. Overall, net inflows gradually declined over five consecutive trading days from a peak of $532 million, suggesting that buying momentum weakened as Bitcoin approached the $82,000 resistance level.

However, the broader pattern of sustained net inflows remained intact. Looking at a longer time horizon, spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded six consecutive weeks of net inflows as of May 11, marking the longest uninterrupted buying streak since August 2025. Based on preliminary consolidated data, BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the majority of inflows during the May 4–8 period, attracting approximately $596 million in net inflows. Five other ETF products posted smaller inflows, while Grayscale Investments’s GBTC and several other funds continued to experience outflows. On May 11 (Monday), spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded net inflows of approximately $27.29 million overall. However, BlackRock’s IBIT unusually posted a modest net outflow of roughly $7.43 million that day, marking its first daily outflow in four trading sessions. Spot Ethereum ETFs, by contrast, recorded net outflows of approximately $16.89 million on the same day, with Fidelity Investments’s FETH accounting for a relatively large share of the withdrawals.

As markets approached the release of CPI data and the upcoming CLARITY Act vote, some institutional participants opted for modest defensive position reductions during a period of heightened price sensitivity. The current ETF market structure increasingly reflects a classic “winner-takes-most” dynamic. Among the 11 spot Bitcoin ETF products, several smaller funds recorded consecutive days with zero net flow activity, clearly indicating that institutional capital is rapidly concentrating into the two most liquid flagship products: BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. The deeper implication of this concentration trend is significant: the average cost basis of institutional holdings entering the crypto ecosystem continues to rise, while the amount of exchange-held tradable BTC continues to decline, further reinforcing the foundation for a tightening supply environment.

2. Price Performance: Intense Battle Around the $80,000 Level, Weekly Volatility Reaches Approximately $4,800

Bitcoin’s price action over the past week unfolded in three distinct phases:

• Phase One (May 5–7): Strong Breakout Above $82,000
  Bitcoin rapidly climbed from around $80,500 to a peak of $82,828, recording its highest daily close since January 30. At one point, Bitcoin’s month-to-date gain exceeded 7%.
• Phase Two (May 8–9): Sharp Two-Day Pullback, Loss of the $80,000 Psychological Level
  After breaking above $82,000, Bitcoin quickly encountered technical resistance near the 100-week exponential moving average, positioned around $82,446. Sellers aggressively entered the market within the $81,200–$81,500 range. At the same time, consecutive two-day ETF net outflows combined with approximately $270 million in long liquidations across the derivatives market intensified downside pressure. Bitcoin rapidly retraced, briefly falling below $79,500 intraday and losing the critical $80,000 support level.
• Phase Three (May 10–11): Stabilization and Recovery Ahead of CPI Catalyst
  As selling pressure gradually eased, Bitcoin rebounded from the $79,500 region and steadily recovered. On May 11, Bitcoin closed at approximately $81,950, reclaiming the 100-hour moving average above $80,500. Market attention is now firmly focused on the U.S. April CPI data release scheduled for May 12. If inflation comes in below expectations, Bitcoin could potentially extend its rally toward the $85,000–$93,000 range. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data could trigger a renewed pullback toward $78,000 or even lower levels.

Source: CoinGecko, Gate, MEXC

3. Stablecoins: Total Market Cap Surpasses $323 Billion, USDC Records Over $1.61 Billion in Weekly Net Inflows

As of May 12, the total stablecoin market capitalization reached approximately $323 billion. Over the past week, the stablecoin sector expanded by more than $2 billion overall, signaling continued growth in market liquidity reserves, known as "dry powder".

• USDT: Market capitalization reached approximately $189.63 billion, accounting for 58.76% of the total stablecoin market, with weekly growth of 0.05%.
• USDC: Market capitalization climbed to approximately $78.96 billion, rising 2.08% over the week and recording roughly $1.61 billion in net inflows. Among major stablecoin issuers, USDC significantly outperformed, reflecting renewed institutional demand for dollar-pegged crypto assets.
• USDG: Led the top 10 stablecoins in weekly growth, surging 11.89% and reaching a market capitalization of approximately $2.658 billion.
  

On May 10, shares of Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC, surged 15.91% to close at $131.76. The company disclosed that USDC circulation reached $77 billion by the end of the first quarter, representing a 28% year-over-year increase. From a capital structure perspective, the strong growth of USDG alongside the rapid expansion of USDC suggests that liquidity is increasingly flowing back into the crypto ecosystem.

The continued expansion of stablecoin issuance also indicates that off-exchange buying power remains firmly intact. In particular, against the backdrop of major ETFs such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity Investments’s FBTC recording inflows significantly above March levels, the ongoing growth in stablecoin supply implies that dollar-denominated crypto liquidity has not been exhausted despite continued bullish price momentum.

II.Global Asset Performance

1. Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Continue Hitting Record Highs, Strongest Six-Week Rally Window in Years

U.S. equities extended their strong momentum this week. As of the May 9 close, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.71% to 26,247.08, posting a weekly gain of 4.51%. The S&P 500 rose 0.84% to 7,398.93, gaining 2.33% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.02% to 49,609.16, finishing the week with a 0.22% gain. All three major indices closed higher for the week, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recording their sixth consecutive weekly advance while repeatedly setting new all-time closing highs.

During this six-week stretch, the S&P 500 gained more than 16%, marking its third-best six-week performance over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq surged more than 25% over the same period, representing its second-strongest six-week rally since 2009. Earnings season is now approaching its conclusion. Technology-heavy sectors continued to deliver significant outperformance, with the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index climbing 11.14% for the week. Multiple AI- and memory-chip-related stocks posted sharp gains and reached new record highs.

On Monday, May 12, coinciding with the release of the U.S. CPI report, all three major U.S. stock indices continued to edge higher, with both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 setting new intraday and closing record highs once again. However, the upward momentum previously driven by earnings season has started to moderate. At the same time, stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations pushed oil prices higher, reigniting market concerns surrounding inflationary pressure.

2. Commodities: Oil Prices Swing Sharply, Silver Breaks Above $85

Over the past week, commodity markets experienced intense volatility amid repeated shifts in negotiations between the United States and Iran. On May 6, rising optimism surrounding diplomatic talks triggered a sharp selloff in oil markets, with Brent Crude Oil falling as much as 4% intraday. However, after Iran’s proposed 14-point framework was rejected by the U.S., hopes for renewed negotiations through the Strait of Hormuz faded, leading oil prices to stabilize and rebound.

On May 11, Donald Trump publicly stated that Iran’s response was “completely unacceptable” and warned that the ceasefire agreement was “hanging by a thread.” His hawkish remarks reignited bullish sentiment across energy markets, with Brent crude at one point rising 3.5% during Monday’s session.

As of the May 12 close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $98.07 per barrel, up 2.78%, while Brent Crude Oil settled at $104.21 per barrel, up 2.88%. In precious metals markets, easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran earlier in the week initially allowed gold prices to rebound strongly from lows near $4,556. However, after the Federal Reserve System announced that it would maintain interest rates within the 3.50%–3.75% range, expectations for rate cuts continued to weaken. Combined with renewed U.S. dollar strength, the rebound potential for precious metals became increasingly constrained. As of May 12, COMEX Gold Futures closed at approximately $4,729 per ounce.

Notably, silver staged an independent breakout rally this week, surging more than 7% intraday and successfully reclaiming the $85 per ounce level. The worsening energy crisis in Peru further intensified expectations of tightening silver supply. The Silver Institute forecasts that the global silver supply deficit will expand by 15% in 2026. As of May 12, COMEX Silver Futures closed at $85.948 per ounce, posting a weekly gain of 6.29%.

3. Bond Market: Treasury Yields Consolidate as Markets Await Inflation Guidance

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield traded within a narrow 4.3%–4.4% range as markets awaited the release of the May 12 CPI report. According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 have been significantly revised downward. Current probabilities are now nearly evenly split between scenarios involving no rate cuts and one to two cuts within the year, highlighting sharp divergence in market expectations.

Meanwhile, short-term interest rate futures markets have already priced in roughly a 30% probability of inflation coming in above expectations. The direction of Treasury yields will likely provide a key macroeconomic framework for assessing support levels across risk assets, particularly Bitcoin. On the MEXC platform, the tokenized Treasury product TLTON (linked to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) offers users a way to express interest rate expectations. International ETF token trading pairs such as EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT have also been listed on the platform.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Themes

Theme 1: Structural Reshuffling in the ETF Market; IBIT + FBTC vs. the Liquidity Divide Facing "Lagging" Products

From early April through the first week of May, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive weeks of net inflows, with cumulative inflows totaling approximately $3.4 billion. However, after the category's total assets surpassed the $100 billion mark, capital distribution within the ETF market became increasingly imbalanced. Over the past six weeks, roughly 60% of all new inflows were concentrated in two products: BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity Investments’s FBTC. IBIT alone added approximately 11,200 BTC in a single week. FBTC accumulated roughly 1,290 BTC during the same period.

Meanwhile, many smaller ETF products, along with Grayscale Investments's GBTC, continued to experience persistent outflows. Against this backdrop of structural divergence, the consecutive ETF outflows recorded on May 7 and May 8 (totaling approximately $415 million) should not be interpreted as a broad institutional exit from the market. Instead, the flows likely reflected short-term momentum capital taking profits through more liquid and flexible products such as FBTC before waiting for the next market catalyst.

The deeper implication is that the ETF market is undergoing a tiered consolidation process, evolving from "liquidity scarcity" to "institutional scaling," followed by self-reinforcing concentration among leading products, and ultimately the gradual marginalization of smaller funds. From an on-chain perspective, this trend further reinforces the broader crypto market paradigm of liquidity concentrating toward dominant assets and platforms.

MEXC currently supports perpetual Futures pairs such as BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT, alongside tokenized ETF products available for recurring investment strategies, including SPYON/USDT and MSFTON/USDT, positioning the platform well within this ongoing liquidity concentration trend.

Theme 2: The CLARITY Act Opens a Legislative Window; Crypto Regulation Moves From Delay to a Priced-In Phase

Over the past several quarters, digital asset regulation has largely remained in a “gray zone” due to the absence of a practical and comprehensive market structure framework. Entering May, however, the situation has undergone a meaningful structural shift from “zero to one.” The proposed CLARITY Act aims to clearly define the jurisdictional boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding digital assets. If passed, the legislation could fundamentally reduce compliance costs for institutional participants.

However, several major points of contention remain unresolved:

• The American Bankers Association continues lobbying against provisions related to stablecoin yield mechanisms, citing concerns that deposits could migrate from traditional banks toward on-chain stablecoin issuers.

• Ethical provisions related to crypto asset holdings, including issues associated with Donald Trump's reported holdings, remain under negotiation. Specific regulatory language surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) is also still being debated.

The committee vote scheduled for Thursday, May 14 at 10:30 AM ET will mark the first major hurdle for the bill as it seeks to advance beyond the Senate committee stage. Prediction markets on Polymarket currently price the probability of passage at approximately 75%. Regardless of the final outcome, the vote itself represents a significant increase in the crypto industry’s political influence within Washington. From a secondary market perspective, legislative progress surrounding the CLARITY Act has evolved from being merely "background regulatory noise" into a quantifiable and tradable macro variable, one that continues to produce observable on-chain market effects.

Theme 3: Solana and XRP Stand Out; Altcoin ETF Capital Begins Differentiating

The most significant altcoin catalyst during the second week of May came from increasingly differentiated ETF capital flows.

• Solana (SOL): Spot Solana ETFs recorded strong inflows between May 5–6. On May 6 alone, net inflows reached approximately $21.3 million, while total weekly inflows surpassed $39 million, marking the strongest weekly ETF inflow performance since late February. SOL traded within the $85–$96 range during the week.
• XRP: XRP-related ETF products recorded more than $10 million in net inflows between May 5–6, followed by an additional $6 million in inflows on Friday. Total weekly net inflows reached approximately $34.2 million, making it one of the strongest altcoin ETF inflow periods since April 17. XRP prices remained relatively stable within the $1.38–$1.48 range.
  

ETF inflows for Ethereum (ETH) remained comparatively weaker. Although Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $70 million in net inflows during the third week of May, ETH's overall price movement continued to follow broader market trends rather than acting as an independent market driver.

Overall:

• Solana is gradually establishing its own institutional allocation demand cycle.
• XRP continues attracting strong inflows due to the structural advantages of its ETF products.

IV. Market Hot Topic Cloud

V. Key Events to Watch Next Week

Economic Calendar (May 12 – May 19, SGT)

VI. MEXC Platform Updates

1. XLE Index Futures Launch With 0 Fees, Expanding Access to Traditional Asset Trading

On May 11, MEXC officially launched XLE Index Futures with a limited-time 0-fee trading. XLE is designed to track the price and performance of the Energy Select Sector Index, offering investors a streamlined and cost-efficient way to gain exposure to major U.S. oil, natural gas, and energy equipment companies. Grid trading bot strategies for the contract have also been made available simultaneously. Previously, Futures trading pairs including DOGEUSDT, DOGEUSDC, MEGAUSDT, and PLAYUSDT had already been added to the platform's zero-fee campaign, continuing MEXC’s efforts to reduce trading costs for quantitative and high-frequency traders.

2. Rapid Expansion of New Asset Listings Across Meme+ and Innovation Zones

From May 6 to May 12, MEXC continued rapidly expanding its asset offerings at an industry-leading listing pace:

• MAXXING: Listed in the Meme+ zone on May 9 at 13:50. MAXXING is a trending meme token on the Solana blockchain, allowing users to trade directly without requiring a Web3 wallet. Later the same day at 17:20, the MAXXINGUSDT perpetual Futures was also launched, supporting 1x–20x leverage.
• Hantavirus (HANTA): Listed in the Assessment Zone on May 8 at 10:15, with HANTA/USDT trading officially opened.
• Bedrock (BR): Listed in the Innovation Zone on May 11 at 18:00, opening the BR/USDT trading market. BR serves as the governance token for managing decision-making within the Bedrock DAO ecosystem.
• Futures Innovation Zone: The PODUSDT perpetual futures contract launched on May 11 at 14:50, supporting 1x–20x leverage alongside both cross and isolated margin modes. Grid trading bot functionality was also enabled simultaneously.

In addition, WORM was officially listed in the Meme+ Zone on May 9. Throughout early May, the platform also continued adding multiple AI narrative-themed tokens. The Meme+ zone maintained its high-frequency listing pace, covering multiple token launch platforms across major public blockchains including Solana and BNB Smart Chain.