Week 2 of June 2026 Statistical Period: June 3, 2026 – June 9 Data Cutoff: June 9, 2026 Core Narrative Over the past week, macro data and institutional capital outflows jointly pressured the cryptoWeek 2 of June 2026 Statistical Period: June 3, 2026 – June 9 Data Cutoff: June 9, 2026 Core Narrative Over the past week, macro data and institutional capital outflows jointly pressured the crypto
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | Bitcoin Breaks Below $60,000 as SpaceX IPO Countdown and Strong NFP Add Dual Pressure
Week 2 of June 2026
Statistical Period: June 3, 2026 – June 9
Data Cutoff: June 9, 2026
Core Narrative
Over the past week, macro data and institutional capital outflows jointly pressured the crypto market.
On the macro front, the U.S. May nonfarm payrolls report released on June 5 became the key turning point for markets this week. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, nearly double market expectations of 85,000–88,000. The previous reading was revised up from 115,000 to 179,000, while March and April were revised up by a combined 93,000. Over the past three months, job gains posted their strongest performance in more than two years. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, showing that labor market resilience was significantly stronger than expected.
After the data release, markets quickly repriced the Federal Reserve's rate path. According to CME FedWatch, as of June 8, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at the June meeting stood as high as 98.1%, while the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in July rose to 13.6%. Rate-cut expectations have largely been priced out. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly climbed to 4.55%, while the U.S. Dollar Index moved above 106.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act continued to face obstacles in the Senate. As of June 8, the implied probability on Polymarket that the bill would become law in 2026 was around 54%, down significantly from previous levels. Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate from 75% to 60%, while JPMorgan's team assessed the probability of passage at below 50%. More than 200 crypto companies signed a joint letter urging the Senate to schedule a floor vote. However, with the August recess approaching, the legislative timeline is becoming increasingly tight. Senate Majority Leader Thune would need to schedule floor time in July for the bill to make progress before the August recess.
On the geopolitical front, U.S.–Iran tensions deteriorated further last week. Iran announced a suspension of diplomatic communication with Washington, while the U.S. military accused Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of conducting provocative military drills in the Strait of Hormuz. A near-term breakthrough in negotiations now appears difficult. Oil prices remained elevated above $90 per barrel, and the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to fade in the short term.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin saw a sharp decline this week, falling to a low of $59,099 on June 6, its lowest level since October 2024. It has dropped more than 20% over the past week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index once fell to 12, entering the "extreme fear" zone and hitting a year-to-date low.
In addition, Elon Musk's SpaceX, ticker SPCX, is scheduled to list on Nasdaq on June 12 and has become a key market focus. The offering is priced at a fixed $135 per share, implying a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, with a target fundraising size of $75 billion, or up to $86 billion including the overallotment option. According to media reports, subscription orders have already exceeded the total number of shares available, while retail cash reserves remain low. Some investors may need to sell existing positions to free up capital, creating additional liquidity pressure on the crypto market.
Overall, the combined pressure from tightening macro liquidity, delayed regulatory catalysts, and IPO-related liquidity absorption has pushed the market into its deepest correction so far in 2026.
I. Key Developments in the Crypto Market
1. Institutional Flows: Bitcoin Spot ETFs Post $1.72 Billion in Weekly Net Outflows — Second Largest on Record
In Week 1 of June, from June 1 to June 5 ET, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $1.72 billion, the second-largest weekly net outflow on record.
By day, June 2 saw the largest redemption at $519 million. Apart from a slight net inflow of $3.05 million on June 4, the other four trading days all recorded net outflows. This continued the streak of 14 consecutive trading days of net outflows for Bitcoin ETFs since mid-May 2026.
By product, BlackRock's IBIT saw the largest net outflow at $1.337 billion last week, while Fidelity's FBTC recorded a net outflow of $202 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs also came under pressure, with net outflows of around $174 million over the same period. CoinShares' broader crypto investment products also recorded $1.67 billion in net outflows during the same week.
The macro backdrop behind this round of capital outflows is the repeated disappointment of Fed rate-cut expectations. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have continued to increase the appeal of risk-free assets. At the same time, SpaceX's $75 billion IPO and Alphabet's $85 billion share issuance represent two highly attractive liquidity events in traditional capital markets, creating a clear diversion effect on institutional capital.
- June 3: Reports that Strategy had sold 32 BTC continued to reverberate through the market, with participants widely interpreting the move as a breakdown of the firm's "never sell" narrative. Bitcoin slid to an intraday low of $65,372, while network-wide futures liquidations exceeded $1.86 billion — ranking among the largest liquidation events recorded in 2026.
- June 4: Selling pressure broadened further. Bitcoin briefly breached the $62,000 level, touching an intraday low of $61,467 for a peak decline exceeding 7%. Ethereum also retreated to $1,778, with approximately 273,000 investors liquidated globally.
- June 5–6: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, above expectations of 88,000, largely ending rate-cut expectations. Bitcoin consecutively broke below the $60,000 and $59,000 levels, falling to an intraday low of $59,100 on June 5 before further dropping to $59,099 on June 6, its lowest level since October 2024. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index once fell to 12, entering the "extreme fear" zone.
- June 7–9: Over the weekend, Bitcoin consolidated within a tight range of $62,000–$63,500 at depressed levels. Trading volume contracted sharply, and any recovery momentum remained notably weak.
Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ethereum declined more than 11% over the week, trading at approximately $1,687 as of June 9; Solana was priced at around $72, down roughly 9% for the week; XRP slipped below the $1.25 mark to trade at $1.23.
Asset | Weekly change (6/3–6/9) | Price range |
Bitcoin | Approx. -18.5% | $59,099 – $73,593 |
Ethereum | Approx. -13.5% | $1,687 – $2,050 |
Solana | Approx. -9.0% | $71 – $79 |
XRP | Approx. -7.5% | $1.21 – $1.32 |
GOLD (XAUT) | Approx. -3.0% | $4,313 – $4,550 |
Total crypto market cap | Approx. -12% | $21.5T – $24.5T |
Data source: CoinGecko, MEXC
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's daily RSI has dropped to around 25, with the weekly RSI also entering oversold territory. Should the $59,000 support level be confirmed as broken, the next key support zone would fall in the $50,000–$55,000 range. According to Polymarket data, the probability that traders are wagering on Bitcoin falling below $55,000 by end of 2026 has climbed to over 68%.
As of June 8, the total stablecoin market cap stood at approximately $310 billion, declining roughly $6 billion week-over-week. USDT and USDC continue to command dominant positions in the market. Within the yield-bearing stablecoin segment, capital allocation is increasingly rotating away from funding rate-dependent products toward protocol yield-driven alternatives. sUSDS TVL sustained steady growth during this period, while sUSDE TVL continued to contract.
II. Global Asset Performance
Between June 3 and 9, U.S. equities experienced pronounced volatility, tracing a sharp reversal pattern — rallying early in the period before giving back gains and turning lower.
In the first half of the week, Nvidia announced its RTXSpark chip and mass production plans for the Vera Rubin platform at COMPUTEX 2026. Together with strength in memory chips, as Micron's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, all three major U.S. stock indexes hit intraday record highs, while the S&P 500 briefly extended its winning streak to nine sessions. However, markets pulled back on the afternoon of June 3 as tensions in the Middle East escalated following the Strait of Hormuz conflict, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.9%. In addition, although Broadcom's earnings showed AI semiconductor revenue growth of more than 200% year over year, the figure was slightly below expectations. Concerns over customer diversification also weighed on the stock, which fell 19% over two days. The move was viewed by the market as a sign of marginal slowing in AI capital expenditure.
The June 5 nonfarm payrolls report became the biggest turning point of the week. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, above expectations of 88,000, while March and April were revised up by a combined 93,000. Interest rate futures fully priced in a rate hike before December 2026, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.55%. That day, the Nasdaq plunged 4.18%, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025. The S&P 500 fell 2.64%, ending a nine-week winning streak, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 10%. Chip stocks lost over $1 trillion in market value in a single day, with Nvidia and Tesla both falling more than 6%.
Markets rebounded in the second half of the week, but performance was mixed. On June 8, the Nasdaq rose 0.86%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.61%, with Intel up 11% and Micron up 9.9%. However, Microsoft, Google, and Meta continued to decline. Analysts viewed the move as "buying the dip" rather than a trend reversal. For the week, the Nasdaq fell around 4.2%, the S&P 500 declined around 2.6%, and the Dow dropped around 1.4%.
Tesla (TSLA) bucked the broader market trend, finishing the week with a modest gain of approximately 2.4%. Although the stock briefly pulled back alongside the broader market to $391 on June 5, sentiment shifted on June 8 when JPMorgan upgraded Tesla from "Underweight" to "Neutral" and significantly raised its price target from $145 to $475. The bank cited a market narrative shift—away from Tesla's core EV business and toward autonomous driving, robotics, and AI chips—while also noting the upcoming reveal of the new Roadster. The potential SpaceX IPO adds a more nuanced layer to Tesla's outlook: while merger speculation between the two companies (with prediction markets assigning a probability of roughly 43%–50%) offers medium- to long-term narrative tailwinds, the sheer scale of the $75 billion fundraising effort could create near-term headwinds through capital diversion.
Index | Weekly Change | Core Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
Nasdaq Composite Index | ~-4.2% | Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, lifting rate-tightening bets | |
S&P 500 Index | ~-2.6% | Rate-sensitive sectors led the broad decline | |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | ~-1.4% | Industrial stocks demonstrated relative resilience |
2. Commodities: Gold Slips Below $4,300, Oil Prices Hold at Elevated Levels
Crude Oil: Oil prices fluctuated within the $89-$93 per barrel range this week. U.S.-Iran talks remained deadlocked, with Iran suspending diplomatic communication with Washington and the U.S. military accusing the Revolutionary Guard of conducting provocative drills in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in place. However, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls raised demand concerns and limited further upside in oil prices. As of June 9, WTI traded at around $91.20 per barrel, while Brent traded at around $94.50 per barrel.
Gold: Gold prices fell sharply this week. After the June 5 nonfarm payrolls report, London spot gold plunged 3.6% in a single day, briefly breaking below the $4,300 level and touching a low of $4,313 per ounce, marking its largest one-day decline since September 2023. The main pressure came from rate-hike expectations: May nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, prompting markets to price in a Fed rate hike this year. Higher real rates weighed heavily on non-yielding assets. As of June 9, gold closed at around $4,330 per ounce, down approximately 3% for the week.
Silver: Silver also sold off sharply this week. On June 5, COMEX silver futures fell more than 8% to $68.00 per ounce. High rate expectations and a weaker industrial demand outlook, especially China-related demand, created dual pressure. As of June 9, silver closed at around $68.50 per ounce, down approximately 8.5% for the week.
Asset | Weekly Performance | Key Events | On-Chain Mapping |
WTI Crude Oil | $89 – $93/barrel | Ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiation deadlock sustains geopolitical risk premium, lending support to oil prices | |
Brent Crude Oil | $92 – $95/barrel | Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data dampens demand expectations | |
Gold | $4,313 – $4,550/oz | Nonfarm payrolls data surpassed expectations, significantly lifting rate-hike expectations | |
Silver | $68 – $77/oz | Elevated interest rate environment coupled with subdued industrial demand |
As of June 9, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.17%, the 2-year yield at 4.65%, and the 10-year yield at 4.82%. According to CME FedWatch, markets priced a 98.1% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in June, while the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in July rose to 13.6%. The probability of a December rate hike increased to 58%, and the probability of a January 2027 hike exceeded 70%. Markets have now fully priced out any rate cuts in 2026.
Fueled by shifting expectations around long-term U.S. Treasury yields, weekly trading volume for MEXC's tokenized Treasury product TLTON/USDT — which tracks the TLT ETF — surged approximately 20% week-over-week, reflecting a notable uptick in trading activity. Furthermore, several international ETF token trading pairs have officially gone live on the platform, including EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT.
III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Topics
Topic 1: CLARITY Act Passage Odds Drop Below 50% as Legislative Progress Stalls
As of June 9, Polymarket data indicates that the probability of the CLARITY Act being formally signed into law in 2026 has slipped to 48% — a 4-percentage-point decline from the previous week. Key obstacles remain unresolved, falling into three primary areas:
- Democratic senators are holding firm on the inclusion of an "anti-crypto profiteering" ethics provision, and the White House has yet to show any signs of flexibility;
- Banking lobby groups continue to mount pressure, mounting strong opposition to provisions governing stablecoin interest payments;
- Congress faces a congested legislative calendar in June, with the Senate majority leader directing priority resources toward appropriations bills.
Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly stated that if the bill fails to pass in the current Congress, the next window may not come until 2029 or 2030. This makes a near-term breakthrough more difficult, pushing back market expectations for tokens such as XRP and SOL to receive clear "commodity" status.
Topic 2: May Nonfarm Payrolls Surpassed Expectations by a Wide Margin, Broadly Fueling Rate-Hike Expectations
The May nonfarm payrolls report released on June 5 showed that the U.S. economy added 325,000 jobs, far above expectations of 190,000. The previous reading was revised up from 225,000 to 241,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%.
After the data release, interest rate futures markets repriced quickly: the probability of a September rate hike rose from 38% to 62%, while the probability of a December hike increased from 42% to 58%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the labor market showed "no signs of cooling" and that further tightening was necessary. The divergence between the trimmed mean PCE measure promoted by newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh, which stood at 2.3% in April, and headline PCE persisted. However, the strong nonfarm payrolls data also made more dovish members of the committee increasingly cautious.
For crypto assets, a sustained high-rate environment continues to erode valuation support for zero-yield risk assets, making it increasingly difficult for institutional capital to establish a clear near-term re-entry thesis.
Theme 3: U.S.-Iran Negotiations Remain Deadlocked, Keeping Geopolitical Risk Premium Elevated
On June 4, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the "additional conditions" proposed by the U.S., saying Iran "will not negotiate under pressure." On June 6, the U.S. military accused Iran of conducting "simulated blockade" drills in the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of a near-term agreement between the two sides has declined.
Oil prices therefore remained above $90, and the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to fade in the short term. If tensions escalate further, oil prices could rise again, adding to global inflation pressure.
IV. Market Hot Topic Word Cloud
Rank | Keywords | Core Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
1 | May nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 | Significantly beat expectations of 88,000, driving a sharp rise in rate hike probability | BTC/USDT, |
2 | CLARITY Act passage probability drops to 48% | Slips below the 50% mark for the first time, with legislative uncertainty continuing to mount | |
3 | SpaceX IPO scheduled for June 12 | Priced at $135 per share, with pre-listing tokens seeing active trading | |
4 | Bitcoin price breaks below $60,000 | Marks the lowest level since October 2024 | BTC/USDT |
5 | Strategy trims its BTC holdings for the first time | First sell-off in four years; its symbolic weight far outweighs the actual transaction size | |
6 | U.S.-Iran nuclear talks reach a deadlock | Khamenei firmly rejects any additional conditions | OIL(WTI)USDT |
V. Key Focus Areas for the Coming Week
Economic Calendar (Jun 10 – Jun 16, SGT)
Date | Event / Indicator | Market Impact | Tokenized Underlying |
Jun 10 (Wed) | U.S. May CPI Release | Key core inflation print that will directly influence rate-hike path expectations | BTC/USDT, GOLD(XAUT)USDT |
Jun 11 (Thu) | SpaceX IPO Final Pricing | Offering price confirmed at $135 per share; roadshow officially concludes | |
Jun 12 (Fri) | SpaceX Nasdaq Listing (SPCX) | The largest IPO in history; pre-listing token prices are closely correlated with the underlying stock's market performance | SPACEX(PRE)/USDT |
Jun 16–17 (Next Week Focus) | Fed June FOMC Rate Decision | Watch the dot plot projections and the tone of the accompanying policy statement | TLTON/USDT, BTC/USDT |
Ongoing Monitor | U.S.–Iran Developments | Escalating geopolitical risks and their spillover effects on the energy market | OIL(BRENT)USDT |
Ongoing Tracking | Miner Sell-Off Pressure | A break below $65K could trigger a new wave of cascading liquidations | BTC/USDT |
Note: All tokenized assets listed above are available on the MEXC Spot market. Newly listed products are eligible for a 0-fee promotion during the first 30 days.
VI. Platform Updates
SpaceX is set to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, with an offering price of $135 per share, a target fundraising size of $75 billion, and an implied valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion — potentially making it the largest IPO in history. In response, MEXC has launched a SpaceX IPO dedicated page this week, offering comprehensive coverage of the IPO timeline, key prospectus data analysis, a breakdown of risk factors, and an assessment of potential impacts on the crypto market. Alongside this, MEXC has introduced the SPACEX(PRE) pre-listing product, enabling investors to gain early valuation exposure ahead of the official listing.
Since its official launch on June 1, the RealStocks has leveraged licensed broker channels to provide users with a seamless way to purchase real U.S. stocks directly. During the beta testing phase alone, it has already attracted over 20,000 users to complete verification. The product supports 0-fee trading (applicable during the launch promotion period) and covers the full Nasdaq market. The Trade RealStocks to Win $1,000,000 in Rewards is also currently underway — join now to enjoy 0 fees, full equity rights, and access to 7,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs!
On June 5, the SPACEX(PRE) Round 2 Launchpad subscription officially concluded. The round was priced at 130 USDT, with total subscriptions exceeding $82 million, participation from more than 52,000 users, and an oversubscription ratio of 19.8x. As a pre-listing asset certificate, SPACEX(PRE) will continue trading after SPCX officially lists on June 12, providing price exposure linked to SpaceX's post-listing market value. Users should note that the token does not grant shareholder rights and only provides price exposure.
4. MEXC App Version 6.60.0 Is Now Available — World Cup Prediction Markets Introduce Parlay Mode
On June 8, the MEXC App was upgraded to version 6.60.0, with core updates focused on improving the World Cup Prediction Markets experience. The update introduced Parlay Mode, allowing users to combine multiple predictions into a single order, with potential returns of up to 200x. It also upgraded the Sports section interface, offering clearer schedule displays and a smoother interaction experience. MEXC Prediction Markets support "YES/NO" trading based on real-time event probabilities, covering sports events, crypto industry developments, macroeconomic data, and other scenarios.
Disclaimer: This report is intended for research reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Crypto asset prices are subject to high volatility, and both geopolitical events and macroeconomic shifts may significantly impact the market. Investors are advised to exercise independent judgment in accordance with their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs referenced in this report are cited as objective data only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.
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